July 12, 2023:
Information Clearing House
--
“A riddle wrapped up
in an enigma” is a shortened form of a
quotation made in October 1939, just one
month after the Second World War had begun,
by Sir Winston Churchill in a radio
broadcast to the British people. At the
time, Churchill was First Lord of the
Admiralty. The full comment was “I cannot
forecast to you the action of Russia. It is
a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an
enigma…” Somehow that statement popped up
into my head as I tried to decipher the
meaning of the Yevgeny Prigozhin alleged
coup attempt in Russia on Saturday June 24th,
an unanticipated development that has
energized the imaginations of pundits and
government officials worldwide, generating a
torrent of written articles as well as many
hours’ worth of spoken commentary.
Predictably, the
blather coming out of US Government
officials like Secretary of State Antony
Blinken is worthless propaganda-speak,
replaying the standard line about evil
Russia and the autocrat Vladimir Putin, who,
per Blinken, is in serious trouble in a
Russia that is in chaos over the continuing
Ukraine war, which, he claims, the Kremlin
is losing. President Joe Biden also played
his part in distancing the US from the
Prigozhin affair by declaring emphatically
that the US government was not behind the
alleged coup attempt, though he also ladled
it on thick last Wednesday by
declaring, like Blinken, that Russia was
losing the war in Ukraine and Putin has
become “a bit of a pariah around the world.”
Both those assertions could easily be
challenged.
There was almost no
bloodshed in the initial move by Wagner
Group mercenary units to Rostov on Don,
which houses the Army’s Southern Command.
Afterwards, while on the road to Moscow,
there was no resistance from regular army
troops along the way, though there are
reports that several Russian army
helicopters and a surveillance aircraft
shadowing the column were shot down. But
surely beyond that something potentially
game changing vis-à-vis Russia-Ukraine came
close to happening even if we do not yet
know with any certitude why or even how it
all occurred. The central problem is that
there are many explanations of what took
place that are plausible but which cannot be
confirmed based on the fact that no one
directly involved in the event’s genesis or
execution is likely to provide any honest
answers to questions that might logically be
raised.
Are You Tired Of
The Lies And
Non-Stop Propaganda?
Consider for a moment
some of the elements in the drama. As it was
occurring, Putin initially went on
television to denounce the apparent march on
Moscow by the Wagner group soldiers as an
attempted coup d’etat which made
participants traitors to the Russian
government. Prigozhin, however, quickly
rejected that characterization, claiming
that he was making his move to confront the
generals in Moscow who were failing in their
duty to win the war against Kiev as
expeditiously as possible, i.e. possibly
because they were dragging their heels by
avoiding any risk and making a war that
could have been concluded seem interminable
and possibly even unwinnable.
The march on Moscow
should thus be seen as an “demonstration of
dissent” according to Prigozhin. And to
thicken the plot even further, two senior
generals Valery Gerasimov and Sergei
Surovikin
have not been seen in public since
Saturday and there are unconfirmed reports
that one of them, Surovikin, a former
commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, has
been arrested. Gerasimov is Army chief of
staff and the current commander of forces in
Ukraine while Surovikin is now serving as
his deputy. The handing over of Gerasimov
was one of the demands allegedly made by
Prigozhin. US intelligence sources are also
now claiming that Surovikin
knew about the rebellion in advance,
which suggests that CIA and the Pentagon
also knew about it. And there is also a
comment made by Ukraine’s head of defense
intelligence, Major General Kyrylo Budanov,
who said Kyiv knew both about
Prigozhin’s plans and a separate plot by
Russia’s intelligence agency the FSB to
assassinate him. If any or all of that is
true, that rather suggests that there might
have been a real foreign intelligence agency
driven plot against Putin or at least that
the Kremlin is proceeding with caution to
include the generals’ accounts of their
activities being verified to make sure they
were not complicit in any way with either
the CIA or the Ukrainian government or
Prigozhin himself.
So one has to ask
whether Putin’s advisers and his
intelligence resources were accurately
portraying what Prigozhin was up to or was
the speech about “treason” a cover story
designed to hide a more complicated sequence
of events. Did, for example, Putin’s intel
chiefs really know in advance that the
“coup” or what is possibly better described
as an “armed protest” would be taking place?
If that is so, did they let it start,
assuming that it could not succeed, to
attempt to rally the Russian people behind
the government and the war? And an even
deeper, darker possibility is that the
entire episode was contrived by Prigozhin
and Putin in support of some still
undetermined agenda.
Prigozhin’s
subsequent exile to Belarus in exchange for
his ending the insurrection and the dropping
of any-and-all charges against the alleged
Wagner Group insurgents rather suggests that
the business of what it was all about was
not as straightforward as it seemed on day
one. Whilst denouncing the “mutiny plotters”
Putin carefully distinguished between those
individuals and “the majority of Wagner
Group soldiers and commanders” who “are also
Russian patriots, loyal to their people and
their state.” Indeed, Prigozhin’s role
aside, the Wagner Group was founded and
commanded by former military intelligence
(GRU) officers and funded and provisioned by
the Ministry of Defense. Beyond that,
Wagner’s soldiers were heroes, the legendary
victors of the “battle of Bakhmut.”
And then there is the
possible US role denied by Biden. The
Washington Post
has confirmed that the claim that the
CIA knew about what it referred to as the
“rebellion,” i.e. the plan to march on
Moscow, at least several days in advance.
The Agency briefed the so-called Gang of
Eight in Congress regarding what was
expected to occur but it has not shared what
it knew with the public. That might suggest
to some that the United States and quite
likely Britain were behind an actual coup
attempt and may have even initiated it,
possibly as some kind of false flag
operation, a scenario suggested by Putin in
his television address where he hinted
darkly that “They [the West and Ukraine]
wanted Russian soldiers to kill each other,
so that soldiers and civilians would die, so
that in the end Russia would lose, and our
society would break apart and choke on
bloody civil strife (…) They rubbed their
hands, dreaming of getting revenge for their
failures at the front and during the
so-called counter-offensive, but they
miscalculated.”
That is a pretty
direct accusation of presumed guilt and it
has been suggested that Prigozhin may
have met secretly with Ukrainian and NATO
intelligence officers in Africa where Wagner
has also been operating. If that is true, he
might have been recruited by CIA or MI-6, or
possibly even was allowed to cooperate with
them after consulting with Putin, again in
support of an as-of-yet undetermined
objective, though seriously embarrassing the
US and NATO might have been envisioned.
And it is important
to remember that Prigozhin might have had
what would be best described as a personal
grievance against the generals in Moscow and
also against Putin. Many of the commentators
on his “rebellion” ignore the important fact
that he is a businessman, not a soldier. He
is an oligarch who made his billions largely
by catering to the military and government
and he has sometimes been referred to as
“Putin’s chef.” Given that, his primary
interests center on protecting his
investments and assets, of which the Wagner
mercenary group is one. He has been dismayed
at how his manpower has been getting
exploited in desultory fighting that seems
to go nowhere and has been loudly
complaining for months about various issues
relating to the progress of the war.
Concerning Wagner,
Prigozhin was about to get demoted on July 1st
when Wagner was supposed to sign a contract
that would place it under the de facto
control of the Russian Ministry of Defense,
with at least a third of its active strength
being transferred to Belarus for garrison
duty against Polish threats, though
subsequent reports indicate that the
soldiers have not begun to move from their
existing bases in Russia and Ukraine.
Interestingly,
Prigozhin, who strongly opposed and actually
refused to sign the contract, was reportedly
in his exile in Belarus and was not seen for
many days immediately after the coup
attempt, though the Kremlin
has now revealed that he actually met
with Putin five days after the alleged
mutiny during a three hour meeting to pledge
his loyalty also attended by both Wagner and
regular army officers. There have, however,
been subsequent reports of
a possible brief trip by Prigozhin to
his hometown St. Petersburg in Russia early
last week. The visit had an intriguing angle
to it as Prigozhin reportedly visited the
Federal Security Service (FSB) office to
pick up his small arsenal of
personal weapons and a large quantity of
cash and gold bars, which had been
confiscated when his
lavish principal residence and offices
in and near the city were searched after he
was detained. Multiple passports and a large
number of theatrical type costumes were also
obtained in the mansion together with a few
sledgehammers – a tool the Wagner group
allegedly used to murder defectors,
numerous pictures of Prigozhin in
various disguises as well as a stuffed
alligator and “a framed photo which is
purported to show
the severed heads of [Prigozhin’s]
enemies.” In
an impromptu interview last Thursday
Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko told
surprised reporters that Prigozhin has
apparently remained in St. Petersburg in
spite of brokered peace deal granting him
exile status in Belarus that was guaranteed
by Lukashenko himself, who opined that for
all he knows Prigozhin might well be back in
Moscow. There has also been some
speculation that Prigozhin is back in
Russia to somehow cooperate in the breakup
of his business empire. If all of that is
true, something very strange is going on.
Indeed, it is to be
presumed that many of Prigozhin’s business
interests and the Wagner Group are now being
taken over by the Russian state. Indeed, one
Russian Member of Parliament Andrey
Kartapolov
has suggested that the disputed contract
was the initial principal reason for
Prigozhin’s “mutiny.” There
are also claims that the amnesty and
changes in ownership of Prigozhin’s assets
notwithstanding, there will be
investigations of Wagner’s internal
operations, to include its corrupt spending
of Ministry of Defense money, which
apparently benefited Prigozhin directly and
possibly immensely. The personal grievance
issue also opens the door to the possibility
that Prigozhin was cleverly playing his own
game in an attempt to maintain his status
and benefits as director and head of the
group, possibly making him in intelligence
jargon a double or even a triple agent
depending on how many levels and varieties
of his numerous potential contacts he has
been manipulating.
One point that
Prigozhin made that most sources concede to
have resonance is his claim that the Ukraine
war should be pushed to a conclusion, with
the implication that the Russian people are
getting tired of it. In effect, he was
challenging why Russia went to war in the
first place as well as the execution of it
since that time. Colonel Douglas Macgregor
opines that Putin will have to think
hard over whether he can continue the
relatively slow methodical destruction of
the Ukrainian Army or speed things up, with
a corresponding increase in deaths, to bring
an end to the process and avoid unrest among
the Russian public and also among the many
grumbling rank-and-file soldiers over the
issue of how the war is being fought. There
are reports from Moscow that the Putin
regime is indeed responding to possible
unrest, with the Ministry of Internal
Affairs (MVD) monitoring social media posts
and internet inquiries by ordinary Russians
to determine levels of public support.
Ukrainian sources, admittedly unreliable,
are
claiming that 17 out of Russia’s 46
regions might have supported Prigozhin.
So what do I think? I
believe that CIA has come to the conclusion
that the “coup” as it played out was a
“deception operation” carried out by
Prigozhin and Putin inter alia to
embarrass the western intelligence agencies
which may have been able to contact
Prigozhin and induce him somehow to march on
Moscow. Beyond that, whether Prigozhin as
this played out may have changed his mind on
how to perform due to exposure of the plan
to Russian intelligence or because he never
intended to comply with any agreement in the
first place is unknowable at this point. So,
was there a real insurrection or coup? I
honestly don’t know but rather suspect that
Prigozhin seriously wanted to challenge the
generals in Moscow over how the war was
being fought. Was there a western and NATO
hand in what developed? Almost certainly,
though exactly how that developed is unclear
and may never be known. Ditto how the
Russian side was playing the cards it was
dealt though the dropping of charges against
Prigozhin rather suggests that there was
considerable maneuvering behind the scenes
to produce an outcome that would not
heighten the admittedly low-level threat of
the march on Moscow turning into a removal
of Putin’s government. The coup story still
has considerable legs in the US and western
media, which predictably are out to fry
Vladimir Putin, and there is even
considerable reporting and commentary coming
from Russian sources. It will be very
interesting to see what might surface in the
next several weeks.
Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive
Director of the Council for the National
Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible
educational foundation (Federal ID Number
#52-1739023) that seeks a more
interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the
Middle East. Website is
councilforthenationalinterest.org,
address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA
20134 and its email is
inform@cnionline.org.