By Marco Carnelos
March 07, 2022:
Information Clearing House
-- In the first
two decades of the 21st century, nature and
history have come back to haunt us.
Climate change and the
Covid-19 pandemic have shown that unchecked
globalisation and technological progress will
not spare humanity from international conflict
and threats. Endless wars in Western Asia and
the return of competition between the
US, China and
Russia have challenged the West’s confidence
in its ability to set the rules for the global
order.
It has proved unable to build states in its
own image. The fourth wave of the global
industrial revolution will not be exclusively
western-led, and democracy will not conform to a
neoliberal model. The
war in Ukraine is one of the latest
manifestations of history coming back to bite us
- and there are fears of more to come,
particularly with regards to Taiwan.
The media tends to oversimplify and
personalise conflicts. Russian President
Vladimir Putin is
portrayed as the main villain for sending
thousands of troops into Ukraine and attempting
to take over the country. But history is more
complex than the simple decisions of a leader,
regardless of how ruthless or powerful he might
be. The war in Ukraine is the sad epilogue of an
unresolved conflict stretching back three
decades, nurtured by an abysmal lack of common
sense on both sides.
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Western democracies are right to
express outrage at the Russian invasion, and
they genuinely believe they are on the right
side of history. They boast of superior moral
and political credentials, and they are
convinced they will prevail in the global public
relations struggle, imposing their own
narratives and isolating Russia for its brutal
behaviour. Most probably, they will.
Prior warning
The biggest problem is that Putin does not
care about this anymore, if he ever did. By
deciding to attack, the Kremlin has clearly
shown that it does not nurture any interest in
global public opinion, particularly that of the
West. Putin surely factored into his planning
the likelihood of harsh western reactions and
sanctions.
From Russia’s perspective, ensuring its
security interests in Ukraine prevailed over any
other consideration. There was probably a
decision in Moscow that it was better to
“normalise” Ukraine now than to await further
developments, amid the risk that Ukraine could
formally
become a Nato member.
It would be reasonable to assume that China
had prior warning of Putin’s project. The
Russian leader takes pains to condition the
environment before acting, and he would not have
issued a historic, overly ambitious
joint communique with China on 4 February
while leaving his chief ally in the new world
order in the dark about Ukraine. And China has
already rejected western sanctions against
Russia,
calling them illegal.
Crucially, the conflict in Ukraine is
redefining Europe and transatlantic relations.
For decades, Germany has tried to navigate
European foreign policy, aiming to be a faithful
Nato member and EU powerhouse while
simultaneously maintaining close economic
relations with Russia and China.
This game is now over. Berlin has frozen
the Nord Stream 2 gas project, agreed to cut
Russia out of the
Swift global payment system, and sent lethal
weapons to Ukraine. Any of these moves could
place Berlin on a collision course with Moscow.
It is too early to say whether the new German
leadership is fully convinced of the soundness
of these decisions, or whether it felt there was
no choice.
Curbing Chinese plans
The biggest geopolitical prize of this
conflict is not Ukraine’s alignment with its
neighbours, but Germany’s. Ukraine will be
probably be “normalised” in one sense, but
Germany, too, in another. Ukrainians may soon
discover that they have been used - perhaps even
sacrificed - for a more pressing concern than
Nato or EU membership.
German “normalisation” is an extreme attempt
to disrupt or weaken the Eurasian integration
that China, Russia and other like-minded
countries are pursuing within the frameworks of
the
Belt and Road Initiative, the
Eurasian Economic Union, and the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. This is
an ambitious project of economic and trade
integration outside the US-led global economic
order.
A Eurasian bloc would be far less threatening
if it was cut off from German and European
markets. An alternative to the western economic
order would have been tamed.
As China’s rise is considered the primary
threat to the US in the 21st century, it is
essential for the American leadership to disrupt
Beijing’s landmark geopolitical and geo-economic
project of Eurasian integration. While
attempting to curb Chinese plans, the US has
wisely opted to withdraw from costly trouble
spots, including
Afghanistan and possibly the
broader Middle East region.
It is better to focus energies on Europe. The
old continent will be far more crucial to US
attempts to maintain its leadership and hegemony
in the 21st century. By invading Ukraine, Moscow
has done Washington a massive favour by rallying
Europeans against the threat of an Oriental
autocracy. Now, the immediate threat is Russia -
but China will follow soon. The list of
grievances against Beijing (Taiwan,
the South China Sea,
Xinjiang, Hong Kong, cybersecurity, etc) is
constantly growing.
Economic consequences
Someone could thus ask: why has Russia made
such an apparently stupid move? To reiterate,
Moscow does not care anymore, believing that its
relationship with the West - Europe included -
is beyond repair. Beijing is probably
approaching the same conclusion.
From the US/western perspective, a Russia
severely bogged down in Ukraine is an ideal
outcome to hit the weakest link of the
Russian-Chinese Eurasian partnership. The coming
weeks will reveal whether this calculus is
correct.
Meanwhile, it remains to be seen for how
long Europe will maintain its newfound
unity. The
economic impacts on Russia may have
dramatic consequences for Europe’s own
economic recovery.
Over the last two
years, public faith in western governments
and leadership has been severely tested by
the West’s faltering response to Covid-19,
lockdowns, rising inflation and spiralling
energy prices. The appetite for more
economic and social shocks is thin.
Regardless of whether they are blonde and
blue-eyed, Ukrainian refugees will have
competing demands for scarce housing,
schools and medical resources.
Western Europe and Russia are indulging
in a dangerous game of economic
brinkmanship. The Russians are accustomed to
hardships. It remains to be seen whether
Western Europe is too.
The views expressed in this article
belong to the author and do not necessarily
reflect the editorial policy of Middle East
Eye.
Marco Carnelos is a former Italian
diplomat. He has been assigned to
Somalia, Australia and the United
Nations. He served in the foreign policy
staff of three Italian prime ministers
between 1995 and 2011. More recently he
has been Middle East peace process
coordinator special envoy for Syria for
the Italian government and, until
November 2017, Italy's ambassador to
Iraq.
This article is available in
French on
Middle East Eye French edition.
The views expressed in this article are
solely those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of Information Clearing House.
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