The announcement last week by the United
States of the largest military aid
package in its history – to Israel – was
a win for both sides.
Israeli prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu could boast
that his lobbying had boosted aid from
$3.1 billion a year to $3.8bn – a 22 per
cent increase – for a decade starting in
2019.
Mr Netanyahu has presented this as a
rebuff to those who accuse him of
jeopardising Israeli security interests
with his government’s repeated affronts
to the White House.
In the past weeks alone, defence
minister Avigdor Lieberman has compared
last year’s nuclear deal between
Washington and Iran with the 1938 Munich
pact, which bolstered Hitler; and Mr
Netanyahu has implied that US opposition
to settlement expansion is the same as
support for the “ethnic cleansing” of
Jews.
American president Barack Obama,
meanwhile, hopes to stifle his own
critics who insinuate that he is
anti-Israel. The deal should serve as a
fillip too for Hillary Clinton, the
Democratic party’s candidate to succeed
Mr Obama in November’s election.
In reality, however, the Obama
administration has quietly punished Mr
Netanyahu for his misbehaviour. Israeli
expectations of a $4.5bn-a-year deal
were whittled down after Mr Netanyahu
stalled negotiations last year as he
sought to recruit Congress to his battle
against the Iran deal.
In fact, Israel already receives
roughly $3.8bn – if Congress’s
assistance on developing missile defence
programmes is factored in. Notably,
Israel has been forced to promise not to
approach Congress for extra funds.
The deal takes into account neither
inflation nor the dollar’s depreciation
against the shekel.
A bigger blow still is the White
House’s demand to phase out a special
exemption that allowed Israel to spend
nearly 40 per cent of aid locally on
weapon and fuel purchases. Israel will
soon have to buy all its armaments from
the US, ending what amounted to a
subsidy to its own arms industry.
Nonetheless, Washington’s renewed
military largesse – in the face of
almost continual insults – inevitably
fuels claims that the Israeli tail is
wagging the US dog. Even The New York
Times has described the aid package as
“too big”.
Since the 1973 war, Israel has
received at least $100bn in military
aid, with more assistance hidden from
view. Back in the 1970s, Washington paid
half of Israel’s military budget. Today
it still foots a fifth of the bill,
despite Israel’s economic success.
But the US expects a return on its
massive investment. As the late Israeli
politician-general Ariel Sharon once
observed, Israel has been a US
“aircraft carrier” in the Middle East,
acting as the regional bully and
carrying out operations that benefit
Washington.
Almost no one blames the US for
Israeli attacks that wiped out Iraq’s
and Syria’s nuclear programmes. A
nuclear-armed Iraq or Syria would have
deterred later US-backed moves at regime
overthrow, as well as countering the
strategic advantage Israel derives from
its own nuclear arsenal.
In addition, Israel’s US-sponsored
military prowess is a triple boon to the
US weapons industry, the country’s most
powerful lobby. Public funds are
siphoned off to let Israel buy goodies
from American arms makers. That, in
turn, serves as a shop window for other
customers and spurs an endless and
lucrative game of catch-up in the rest
of the Middle East.
The first F-35 fighter jets to arrive
in Israel in December – their various
components produced in 46 US states –
will increase the clamour for the
cutting-edge warplane.
Israel is also a “front-line
laboratory”, as former Israeli army
negotiator Eival Gilady admitted at the
weekend, that develops and field-tests
new technology Washington can later use
itself.
The US is planning to buy back the
missile interception system Iron Dome –
which neutralises battlefield threats of
retaliation – it largely paid for.
Israel works closely too with the US in
developing cyberwarfare, such as the
Stuxnet worm that damaged Iran’s
civilian nuclear programme.
But the clearest message from
Israel’s new aid package is one
delivered to the Palestinians:
Washington sees no pressing strategic
interest in ending the occupation. It
stood up to Mr Netanyahu over the Iran
deal but will not risk a damaging clash
over Palestinian statehood.
Some believe that Mr Obama signed the
aid package to win the credibility
necessary to overcome his domestic
Israel lobby and pull a rabbit from the
hat: an initiative, unveiled shortly
before he leaves office, that corners Mr
Netanyahu into making peace.
Hopes have been raised by an expected
meeting at the United Nations in New
York on Wednesday. But their first talks
in 10 months are planned only to
demonstrate unity to confound critics of
the aid deal.
If Mr Obama really wanted to pressure
Mr Netanyahu, he would have used the aid
agreement as leverage. Now Mr Netanyahu
need not fear US financial retaliation,
even as he intensifies effective
annexation of the West Bank.
Mr Netanyahu has drawn the right
lesson from the aid deal – he can act
against the Palestinians with continuing
US impunity.
- See more at: http://www.jonathan-cook.net/2016-09-19/palestinians-lose-in-us-military-aid-deal-with-israel/#sthash.fL4Eq28N.dpuf
Al-Qaeda Fighters In East-Aleppo (Defined)
Down To Three!
By Moon Of Alabama
October 17, 2016 "Information
Clearing House"
-
"Moon
Of Alabama"-
The
pro-jihadist "west" is doing its best to
define the number of civilians in
east-Aleppo up and the number of al-Qaeda
fighters in the city down. If the current
numbering trend continues there will be a no
al-Qaeda fighters left in east-Aleppo even
as none have left. They will be redefined
into "moderate rebels" who are entitled to
the failed ceasefire they had never accepted
in the first place.
The
terrorists in east-Aleppo are encircled and
besieged. The Syrian army nibbles away piece
after piece of their territorial hold while
the Syrian and Russian air force attack any
recognized concentrations of forces or
material. It is only a question of time
until they are completely defeated.
Most of the fighters in the besieged area
are associated with al-Qaeda. They are
several thousand strong. Only few civilians
remain. The eastern parts once housed some
300,000 people. About 10% of those, likely
less, are still there. That are the
realistic numbers. The spin differs.
When in 2013 the sectarian rebels had
enclosed and completely
besieged (map) the government held parts
of Aleppo every win of theirs was called a
liberation.
They since killed many of the people they
"liberated". Others fled. But the tide has
turned. This
animated map shows the development from
September 2015 to 2016. The now besieged
"rebel" held areas in east-Aleppo are
shrinking every day. This is today's
situation. Much of the northern parts of the
besieged area, including the Palestinian
camp Handarat, are back in government hands.
Sooner or later the Syrian army will try to
split the "rebel" held part along the
east-west road from the airport to the inner
(old) city.
The
number game is played in front of the United
Nations and in the "western media". The
first marks from an October 5 post
here:
"It
is primarily al-Qaeda that holds Aleppo,"
said (vid) the spokesperson of the
U.S. led 'Operation Inherent Resolve',
Colonel Warren. That was back in April
and al-Qaeda (aka Jabat al-Nusra) has
since strengthen its capacities in the
city. The French Syria (military
intelligence) expert Fabrice Balanche
tells Le Figaro (translated from
French):
[Al-Qaeda's]
grip on Aleppo's east has only
increased since the spring of 2016,
when it sent 700 reinforcement
fighters while moderate brigades
fighters began to leave the area
before the final exit was closed.
The provisional opening of a breach
of the siege of Aleppo in August
2016 (Battle of Ramousseh) has
further increased its
prestige and influence on
the rebels.
The UN Special Envoy for Syria De
Mistura
told (vid, 27:43) the UN Security
Council:
We have seen information from other
sources that tell us more
than half of the fighters present in
eastern Aleppo are al-Nusra.
We have also seen reports alleging
the intentional placement of firing
positions close to social
infrastructure, inside and aside
civilian quarters.
A
few days after that speech De Mistura held a
press conference in which he offered to
escort al-Qaeda fighters out of the besieged
area. He alos sharply revised the number of
al-Qaeda fighters down to less than 10% of
all fighters. From his
October 6 press conference:
We
have done a much more updated analysis
of the al-Nusra reality in eastern
Aleppo. I know I was quoted, and is
correct, I did refer to a figure which
was close to 50%, you must have heard
it, I think it was in the context of the
Security Council. Well based on a more
accurate estimates, which are also more
up to date, and which are never
completely perfect but are in my
opinion, quite reliable, we are talking
now about a presence in eastern Aleppo
of at maximum 900 people, 900 people.
The previous figure probably was also
based on the out of date figure, that
about 1500 al-Nusra fighters had left
Idlib and other locations in order to
join the al- Ramousseh battle which you
remember took place some time ago when
they attempted to re-take al-Ramousseh
road. But they, according to our
information, did withdraw, once this
counter-offensive did not succeed and
failed. So this amends, and
please take it now as the line, which
can always be amended by facts and
figures, and more effective analysis,
but that amends the so-called 50% thing.
900 al-Nusra fighters in eastern Aleppo.
The total number is, the question is of
the fighters in general, including the
so-called main stream fighters or the
AOGs in eastern Aleppo, the maximum
figure that is being considered as such
is 8000 people, 8000.
So
we went from "it is primarily al-Qaeda that
holds Aleppo" to some 10% of all fighters
there within a few month without any
al-Qaeda fighter leaving. This while the
siege was partially breached by the "rebels"
in August and additional al-Qaeda fighters
reportedly used the opening to entered the
city.
One
gets the feeling that Samantha Power
herself, the "wailing banshee" and U.S.
Ambassador to the UN, dictated those "more
accurate estimates" to De Mistura.
But
even those numbers are still too high some
"diplomatic sources" now
tell Reuters:
The number of Islamist rebels in eastern
Aleppo who are not protected by any
ceasefire deal, and can therefore be
legitimately targeted, is far smaller
than an estimate given by the United
Nations, diplomatic sources have told
Reuters.
...
Several sources independently told
Reuters that de Mistura's figure for JFS
fighters was far too high, and the
real number was no more than 200,
perhaps below 100. One Western
diplomat said it possibly had no
more than a "symbolic" presence.
Next week we will be down to one or three
"symbolic" al-Qaeda fighters in east-Aleppo.
When De Mistura finally escorts them out he
will need a few helpers to push the
wheelchairs of those few, old and disabled
people. That then will have "liberated"
east-Aleppo from all Jihadi-fighters and
only upright, secular and democratic rebels
will remain. They will fall under the
ceasefire (the one the U.S. and these
"rebels" never accepted or immediately
broke). They do not deserve to be targeted
by Russia and the Syrian government - no
matter what they do. That, at least, is what
John Kerry and the "western" media will tell
the people. It will of course be complete
bullshit and no serious analysts will fall
for it. But those do not get quoted in the
media.
While the number of Jihadis and rebels gets
defined down the number of civilians in the
now besieged area goes up. The eastern
besieged parts of the built-up city
originally had some 300-400,000 inhabitants
while the government held western parts held
nearly 2,000,000. That is, at first sight of
the above maps, irritating. But if one
studies the satellite pictures underlying
the maps in detail one will notice that at
least half of the now besieged parts are
open country and factory areas. The built-up
share is much smaller than in the western
parts. Current UN estimates for the western
parts vary between 1.3 and 1.5 million. That
is consistent with Syrian government claims.
The UN has several relief missions and
offices in the western parts and those
estimates seem therefore reliable.
But
for the eastern part the UN has given the
abstruse estimates of 250,000-275,000. It
has not given any sources for that number.
It also has no offices and no missions in
the eastern part. It is implausible that
only very few people left an area that is
ruled by various competing Jihadi groups,
has had little electricity and water and has
been fought over for years. Until very
recently passages to west-Aleppo were open
to civilians. The rebels only
now blockade them.
An
independent estimates of the real population
in east-Aleppo comes from Martin Chulov, a
journalist for The Guardian who has
visited the area ten times since it was
occupied by rebels from out of town. After
his last visit he
estimated the actual number of
inhabitants to be down to 40,000:
Those who remain in
eastern Aleppo, roughly 40,000
from a prewar population ...
Just last week Chulov
reconfirmed his observation:
I
returned to the city for the last time.
Finding residents in the east
was difficult. Those who had
stayed this long had no plans to leave.
Umm Abdu, a wedding dress seamstress
turned nurse was one of them.
...
Umm Abdu has left Aleppo, and few of the
others I met along the way have stayed
behind.
The
Syrian government estimates are consistent
with Chulov's observations:
EHSANI2 @EHSANI22
According to well informed senior
sources in #Damascus , number of
civilians in #Aleppo does not
exceed 60k according to their
best estimate
11:02 AM - 14 Oct 2016
EHSANI2 @EHSANI22
@MoonofA @TPAtticus @CamilleOtrakji
"range" of Syrian government
estimate of civilians in E.Aleppo is
40k-60k...60k is high of the
range
11:48 AM - 14 Oct 2016
In
other siege areas where the rebels gave up
to the Syrian government the numbers of
people coming out of them were much smaller
than the original inhabitants. The numbers
were also smaller than all prior estimates.
Daraya, near Damascus, originally had some
80,000 inhabitants. The numbers of besieged
people in Daraya the UN had given were
variously between several ten-thousands and
down to
8,000. When the evacuation of Daraya
started the Syrian army
estimated that 800-1,200 fighters and
4,000 civilians would come out. In the end
the numbers of leaving fighters was some
600-700 and less than 2,000 civilians turned
up to leave. The area was searched and all
had left.
Based on the Daraya numbers and those of
other sieges in Syria there are probably no
more than 4-5,000 fighters and some 3-5
civilians per fighter, i.e. their immediate
families, in east-Aleppo. The real total
could easily be as low as 20,000.
But even then the al-Qaeda
fighters will be still be the majority of
the "rebels" in the city. It is implausible
that their total number is now less than the
number which were earlier announced to enter
as reinforcement.
The official spinmasters
talking to Reuters obviously want the
numbers to be very, very low to keep the
al-Qaeda fighters unharmed and in place for
future operations.
I
am confident that neither the Syrian nor the
Russian military will be a sucker for such
bullshit. That role is reserved for
"western" journalist and the the usual
lobbyist-"analysts" who are employed by
Qatar, the U.S. and other Jihadi sponsors.
Theo Patnos, who was held hostage by
al-Qaeda in Syria for nearly two years, was
interviewed by Vanity Fair (watch the
video at that link). Asked what the
presidential candidates know about Syria he
responds:
They don’t know a thing about Syria.
Neither do the journalists,
by the way. They’re doing their best,
but they don’t know. They’re guessing.
They speak with great authority but they
really know very little. I don’t
criticize them for being incompetent,
but I criticize them for not having the
up-close knowledge. They’re speaking of
a planet they’ve never visited but they
speak as though they do know and it’s a
little confusing for me.
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