Trouble
Between Moscow and Tehran?
By The Saker
August 26,
2016 "Information
Clearing House"
- "The
Saker"
-
While the
granting of the use of the Iranian airbase in
Hamedan to the Russian Aerospace forces was greeted
with a lot of coverage, the recent departure from
Hamedan of the Russian Tu-22M3 has attracted much
less attention. The official Russian line on this
was very neutral, as shown by
this article in Sputnik.
What really
took place, however, deserves some further scrutiny.
First, it
should be said that the Russians had been using that
airbase for a quite a while already, but that the
deal between Russia and Iran had been kept secret.
According to
Russian sources, it appears that the Iranians
were completely surprised when this information was
made public and that some factions inside the ruling
elites of Iran were outraged at what they saw as a
public admission of a compromise of Iranian
sovereignty. First, it was the Iranian Defense
Minister, Hossein Dehghan,
who expressed his outrage at what he saw was a
Russian leak made without Iranian agreement.
According to Dehghan, the Russians wanted to show
that they were an influential superpower and that is
why they made that information public. Soon after
that, both the Iranian Foreign Ministry and the
Russian ambassador to Tehran confirmed that the
Russians had left Hamedan and that they would only
come back when the two countries would agree to
their return.
However,
there might be more to this than meet the eye.
According
to the same Russian sources, what might be taking
place is an internal struggle between different
Iranian factions, specifically the Iranian armed
forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The Russians believe that the website which
initially released this information, Warfare
Worldwide, is linked to the Iranian Armed Forces
who, according to the Russians, leaked this info
(and pictures) through Warfare Worldwide in order to
embarrass the Iranian government. Once this
information was made public, the Russians had to
confirm it, and that resulted in some very heated
exchanges in the Iranian Parliament. Russian
experts have stated that the decision to offer the
use of Hamedan to the Russian Aerospace forces could
not have been made without the person approval of
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the
Islamic Republic, and the Russian Aerospace forces
had been using the Hamedan airbase since last year,
but the (fully understandable) hyper-sensitivity of
the Iranian public to the issue of sovereignty made
the publication of this information highly
embarrassing for the Iranians, especially the
conservatives. A second problem is that the
Russians were mostly working with the IRGC, since
they are the ones fighting inside Syria, while the
Iranian Armed forces were unhappy with this
arrangement.
Whatever
may be the case, in the short term this is
definitely bad news, not only because this
complicates the execution of Russian air strikes
against Daesh, but also because it shows that all is
not perfect and sunny in the informal alliance
between Russia and Iran. In the mid to long term, I
fully expect both sides to mend fences and workout a
series of mutually acceptable collaboration
protocols between the two countries. In that sense,
this is good news.
In truth,
neither Russia nor Iran have any options but to work
together. The Iranians in particular absolutely
need a strong partnership with Russia to keep the
US-Takfiri-Zionist-Wahabi (what a combo!) alliance
at bay and to continue to be the backbone of the
resistance against the AngloZionist Empire in Syria,
Lebanon, Iraq and elsewhere. If this leak was truly
an effort of the armed forces to sabotage an IRGC
run operation, than the Supreme Leader will have to
“clean house” and make sure that all the factions of
the Iranian government work together rather then
against each other. Considering the kind of vicious
infighting taking place for years (and still
continuing) in Russia between the Atlantic
Integrationists and the Eurasian Sovereignists, I
think that Vladimir Putin will have a very great
deal of understanding for the difficulty to run a
covert operation in a country in which different
factions compete against each other. |