July 30, 2016 "Information
Clearing House"
- "NEO"
-
Apparently, Washington has decided
to crush Russia along with Iran and
Syria, without waiting for the
arrival of Hillary Clinton as
a newly elected head of state.
It looks like behind the scenes,
rulers of America are afraid of the
possible victory of Donald Trump
during the upcoming election.
Therefore, they are in a rush to
achieve their primary strategic goal
– to bring down Vladimir Putin and
induce regime change in Russia at
any cost. In a bid to achieve this
goal they are relying on two
strategies – the dropping of oil
prices and the
undermining of Russia’s and
Iran’s positions in Syria. The
recent scandal with the Olympics,
brilliantly organized by Washington,
London, Paris and Berlin, has struck
a painful blow to Moscow’s
reputation. A possible defeat in
Syria could be even more painful,
especially if it is accompanied by
continuously decreasing oil prices,
which would undermine Russia’s
economy. These days, America has no
time to spare, and it’s not only
presidential elections that forces
Western think tanks to work around
the clock. Washington is fairly
concerned with the situation in
Turkey. Ankara apparently decided to
turn to Russia. There has also been
a constant string of terrorist
attacks in Europe. In this respect
the recent attacks in Germany sound
particularly troublesome for
Washington, since this European
power has remained for years, a
stronghold of European security. For
sure, Washington is turning yet
again to Saudi Arabia, without which
Washington has no chances to push
Russia out of global oil markets.
Apparently, nobody paid attention to
the fact that almost immediately
after Mohammad bin Salman Al’s visit
to the US in mid-June, Washington
released the 9/11 report in spite of
all the promises and agreements.
This is the very report that states
that members of the Saudi royal
family were involved in the
preparations of the terrorist
attacks in New York and Washington.
But why would they do something like
this if the deputy crown prince of
Saudi Arabia has promised Washington
full assistance in all the possible
areas, including military and
security cooperation?
This development was followed by an
equally strange statement made by
the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister
on July 22. Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubeir
announced that Saudi Arabia is
prepared to assist Russia in
becoming a great power in the Middle
East, which would enjoy the same
influence that the Soviet Union used
to. A Saudi top diplomat said that
he’s convinced that it would be
reasonable for Russia to enjoy close
ties with Saudi Arabia, instead of
assisting Syria’s President Bashar
al-Assad, since Russia may gain
access to the markets of the GCC
member states and obtain serious
investments.
There’s no doubt that the recent
failed coup attempt in Turkey has
clearly influenced Riyadh’s stance
on the Syrian crisis in light of the
possible rapprochement between
Moscow and Ankara. Should the
attempts of Tehran and Ankara to
establish close communication
channels succeed, all power in the
region will be in the hands of
Russia, Turkey and Iran, which would
be an extremely worrisome
development for Saudi Arabia. By
exploiting this fact, Washington has
forced the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
(KSA) to launch an economic crusade
against Moscow yet again. It should
be noted that Riyadh’s position is
heavily influenced by the EU which
has suffered a string of terrorist
attacks in recent weeks. Those
terrorist attacks were carried out
by ISIS, against which Moscow and
Tehran have been fighting
successfully. For this reason,
Assad’s resignation is no longer
being demanded in Europe anymore.
Russia’s military presence in Syria
has radically changed the balance of
powers in the region. Moscow’s
determination to move in to save
Damascus was an unpleasant surprise
for the West and the GCC. Especially
due to the fact that Russian-Syrian
relations were not believed to be
close enough for Moscow to interfere
in such an unpredictable war. Back
in 2003, the Kremlin abandoned
Saddam Hussein almost without a
fight, although Iraq was more
important an ally for Moscow than
Syria today. Russian-Iranian
military cooperation in Syria along
with common interests played a
decisive role in this turn. At the
same time, the tense situation in
Yemen, the depletion of the
financial resources of Saudi Arabia
provoked by declining oil prices,
along with countless victims of
terrorist attacks in Europe have led
to the weakening of Saudi positions
in Syria.
Once the US and Saudi diplomatic
efforts regarding Syria failed,
Moscow and Tehran started to dictate
their own rules for the game. This
forced Riyadh back into contact with
Moscow. Washington calculated that
Riyadh was a perfect answer to the
question of how to get Russia’s
support while providing nothing in
return. And the words of Saudi
foreign ministers during a recent
visit to Brussels, about Riyadh’s
desire to hand over more power to
Russia in the Middle East today than
back in the Soviet era, makes it
even more clear. Adel bin Ahmed
Al-Jubeir has stated that Russia’s
return to the status of superpower
is now complete, and its influence
will never be less than that of the
United States and the European
Union.
Moreover, many experts say that
Moscow is not interested in Assad as
a person, it is only concerned with
its own interests in the region. But
Saudi Arabia has tried to play this
trick on Russia time and time again,
promising lucrative contracts that
were retracted immediately once
Saudi Arabia got what it was after.
But now the situation is more
complicated. There are a lot of
voices that say that if Moscow
agrees to the Saudi proposal it
would mean the restoration of
Russia’s economy, especially when
Riyadh to other Gulf states remove
the pressure they’ve been applying
on hydrocarbon markets. And then
Vladimir Putin will be able to
improve the conditions that most
Russian citizens live in, thus
reducing criticism within the
country. Should this proposal be
accepted, Russia would allegedly
open a new horizon of cooperation
with Europe and the United States,
and the conflict with the West over
Ukraine would gradually come to
naught due to the recovery of the
regional role of Russia as a key
player on the settlement of the
Syrian crisis.
Hopefully, Russia will not believe
Saudi promises this time either,
since if it does it will fall into
yet another trap of the KSA. Saudi
Arabia is always able to
dramatically drop oil prices to
undermine Russia’s economy, yet
Moscow will have no means to return
to Syria’s and Iran’s trust.
Should Moscow refuse, it will still
retain its position as the most
effective player in the region,
since all the cards are now in
Moscow’s hands. It will restore its
former presence in the Middle East
along with obtaining the much-needed
support of Iran, and Turkey as well.
Tehran and Ankara do only respect
the strong. And at the same time it
will force the US to go after regime
change in Saudi Arabia. In addition,
the preservation of the Russian
military presence in Syria will not
allow a land route for the delivery
of Qatari natural gas to Europe,
which was to pass through Syrian
territory, allowing Moscow to
maintain its primacy in Europe in
the field of gas exports.
Now comes the crucial moment for
Russia, and Iran and Syria. Moscow
is under a tremendous amount of
pressure from the West and the GCC.
Sanctions are continuing. NATO is
closing in on Russia’s borders. And
while it is not clear who will move
into the White House, the Russian
Federation is in no position to
strike a deal with Saudi Arabia. One
can only hope that logic will
prevail over the desire to quickly
solve all problems based on Saudi
promises that are unlikely to be
fulfilled.
Peter Lvov, Ph.D in political
science, exclusively for the online
magazine “New
Eastern Outlook.”