Erdogan Has
Whip Hand And Knows It
By Finian
Cunningham
July 19, 2016
"Information
Clearing House"
- "Sputnik"
-
This
consolidation of power is raising tensions with the
US and European Union, with concerns that the
president’s resort to repression will bring his
Western partners into disrepute.
The West
may be vexed by Erdogan’s truculence, but the
strategic importance of his regime for both the
US-led NATO military alliance and the EU suggest
that they will turn a blind to his excesses – even
if those excesses involve further violation
of democratic rights.
Washington’s NATO agenda of encircling, undermining
Russia; and the EU’s desperate need to halt the
influx of refugees mean that Erdogan knows he can
crackdown at will. The West may mouth misgivings,
but in the end their priority concerns have little
to do with international law or democratic rights.
And the savvy Erdogan knows that.
There are
reports that Erdogan private jet was nearly blown
out of the skies by F-16 fighter jets flown
by coup-plotters. Such reports lend Erdogan heroic
kudos and greater license to crackdown on opponents.
With
thousands of police, army and judiciary imprisoned
or purged, Erdogan is even hinting that he wants
bloody retribution by recalling the death penalty
that had been abolished in 2004. “They will pay a
high price for this treason,” declared Erdogan
amid furious scenes at funerals for hundreds of his
supporters killed during the botched uprising
over the weekend.
One of the
reasons why Turkey abandoned the death penalty was
to appease EU concerns over capital punishment.
Washington
and the European Union are urging restraint by the
Turkish authorities. US President Barack Obama
called on the Erdogan government “to act within the
law”. While French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc
Ayrault said that restoring order should not mean a
“blank cheque” for repression.
Relations
between Washington and Ankara have badly frayed
after top politicians in Erdogan’s ruling AK party
accused the US of having a role in the weekend’s
uprising. The claim was angrily denied by US
Secretary of State John Kerry, who said it was
“utterly false and harmful to bilateral relations”.
Erdogan’s
supporters accuse the exiled Turkish Islamist cleric
Fethullah Gulen of fomenting the coup by military
officers. Since Gulen is based in the US, this has
fueled suspicions that Washington may have had a
hand. Ankara is demanding that the US extradites the
Islamic scholar.
For his
part, Gulen has denied any connection to the plot
and condemned it. The exiled imam, who was formerly
an ally of Erdogan, has made the counter-accusation
that the Turkish president covertly staged the
debacle in order to justify his seizure of state
powers.
The
speculation that Erdogan’s regime was itself
involved in facilitating the coup fits in with
Erdogan longterm project of arrogating executive
powers as president, turning what is nominally a
secular parliamentary state into an Islamist
authoritarian theocracy.
Erdogan has
long had a rocky relation with his country’s
military. His brand of Sunni Islamist politics is
disdained by many within the armed services who see
it as undermining the secular nature of the modern
Turkish state, as set up by Kemal Ataturk in the
1920s. Whereas Ataturk abolished the Ottoman
caliphate, Erdogan appears determined to restore it.
Erdogan’s
meddling in Syria’s conflict has also tarnished
Turkey’s international reputation because
of evidence that the Ankara government has colluded
with Islamist terror groups to overthrow Syrian
President Bashar Al-Assad.
While Western
leaders have cautioned Erdogan against a heavy
crackdown in the aftermath of the attempted putsch,
they nevertheless moved to roundly bolster his
government during the upheaval at the weekend.
Washington and the European Union deplored the coup
and backed the “democratically elected” government
of Erdogan.
NATO’s
civilian chief Jens Stoltenberg also issued his
support for Erdogan’s administration and described
Turkey as a key ally.
Turkey is
not just some lawless, obscure country where coups
might be expected to break out like rashes. It is a
key member of NATO – housing some 90 American
nuclear weapons at the Incirlik airbase – and is a
prospective member of the European Union.
NATO is
supposedly charged with maintaining global security,
and its cohesiveness is vital for Washington’s
attempt to isolate Russia, while the
Nobel-prize-winning EU is hailed as a beacon
of democracy, human rights and rule of law.
Since the
Second World War, however, Turkey has seen at least
five military coups: in 1960, 1971, 1980, 1993 and
1997. The latest uprising at the weekend is the
sixth over a 70-year period. That’s almost one every
decade, a record of ignominy you would think Western
powers would shun.
For the EU,
Turkey has emerged as a crucial partner because
of its assigned role in stemming the flow
of refugees to Europe. Earlier this year, the EU and
Turkey signed a landmark deal in which Ankara would
receive €6 billion from Brussels for repatriating
tens of thousands of refugees who have fled
from warring Syria to southern Europe. The
arrangement has sparked controversy among human
rights groups who claim that it violates
international asylum laws.
The
EU-Turkey pact has been strenuously pushed
by European Council President Donald Tusk and German
Chancellor Angela Merkel. The influx of refugees
into the EU over the past year – one million
to Germany alone – has unleashed a political
backlash from anti-EU parties, and has stoked bitter
tensions among member states over border controls.
Not
surprisingly, Tusk and Merkel were most vocal
among international figures in calling
for restoration of order in Turkey. If Erdogan’s
ruling AKP were to be overthrown the EU has much
to lose, with up to three million Syrian refugees
currently being held back from Europe by Turkey.
As Erdogan
tightens his autocratic grip on power in the name of
“national security”, Washington, NATO and the EU’s
political priorities of maintaining this important
ally will mean that a blind eye is turned to his
excesses. There may be tensions and frictions,
but ultimately the Western powers are relying on Erdogan’s
strong-arm regime.
Erdogan
first came to power in 2002 as the prime minster
of the elected AKP government. He then became
president in 2014 and has since steadily centralized
the powers of the presidency, undermining the
parliament. Erdogan’s crackdown on the Kurdish
minority and draconian suppression of independent
media have alarmed human rights groups and the
European parliament. But both Washington and
Brussels don’t rock the boat too much lest they lose
Erdogan’s cooperation on their strategic priorities.
The irony here
is that the latest military coup against Erdogan was
claimed to be motivated by returning Turkey
to secular parliamentary rule, as opposed to Erdogan’s
“sultan complex” of imposing an Islamist theocracy.
Erdogan’s
ascent to power since 2002 can be viewed as an
ongoing coup against the country’s secular
constitution.
But still
for all practical purposes, Washington, the EU and
NATO remain oblivious to Erdogan’s autocratic rule.
Instead, these supposed bastions of Western
democracy and rule of law have sought to whitewash
his regime.
The real
priorities of the EU and US-led NATO –
as demonstrated by their indulgence towards Erdogan’s
regime – reveal that their supposed adherence
to democratic principles is nothing but a cynical
pretense. |