Waiting for
California and the FBI
Some
Democratic leaders are privately scouting around for
someone to replace Hillary Clinton if she stumbles
again in California and/or the FBI detects a crime
in her email scandal, reports Robert Parry.
By Robert
Parry
June 02,
2016 "Information
Clearing House"
- "Consortium
News"
-
For months
now, poll after poll have registered the judgment of
the American people that they want neither Hillary
Clinton nor Donald Trump as the next President, but
the two major parties seem unable to steer away from
this looming pileup, forcing voters to choose
between two widely disdained politicians.
The
Republicans are locked in after Trump’s hostile
takeover of the party’s selection process, but the
Democrats have one final chance to steer clear, on
June 7 when they hold several primaries and caucuses
including New Jersey and California. If Bernie
Sanders can upset Clinton in California – and/or if
Clinton’s legal problems over her emails worsen –
there remains a long-shot chance that the Democratic
convention might nominate someone else.
As
far-fetched as this might seem, some senior
Democrats, including reportedly White House
officials, are giving serious thought to how the
party can grab the wheel at the last moment and
avoid the collision of two historically unpopular
political figures, a smash-up where Trump might be
the one walking away, damaged but victorious.
Two
Washington insiders – Democratic pollster and
political adviser Douglas E. Schoen and famed
Watergate investigative reporter Carl Bernstein –
have described panicky meetings of top Democrats
worried over Clinton’s troubled campaign, with
Schoen also describing private talks about possible
last-minute alternatives.
I’ve heard
similar tales of hushed discussions – with the
fill-in options including Vice President Joe Biden,
Secretary of State John Kerry or Sen. Sanders – but
I still believe these fretful leaders are frozen by
indecision and don’t have the nerve to pull Hillary
Clinton’s hands off the steering wheel even to avoid
disaster.
But at
least I’m not alone hearing these frightened
whispers. In a Wall Street Journal
opinion piece, Schoen, who served as a political
aide to President Bill Clinton in the 1990s, wrote:
“There is now more than a theoretical chance that
Hillary Clinton may not be the Democratic nominee
for president. …
“The
inevitability behind Mrs. Clinton’s nomination will
be in large measure eviscerated if she loses the
June 7 California primary to Bernie Sanders. That
could well happen. …. A Sanders win in California
would powerfully underscore Mrs. Clinton’s weakness
as a candidate in the general election.
“Democratic
superdelegates — chosen by the party establishment
and overwhelmingly backing Mrs. Clinton, 543-44 —
would seriously question whether they should
continue to stand behind her candidacy. …
“Mrs.
Clinton also faces growing legal problems. The State
Department inspector general’s recent report on Mrs.
Clinton’s use of a private email server while she
was secretary of state made it abundantly clear that
she broke rules and has been far from forthright in
her public statements. The damning findings
buttressed concerns within the party that Mrs.
Clinton and her aides may not get through the
government’s investigation without a finding of
culpability somewhere.
“With Mrs.
Clinton reportedly soon to be interviewed by the
FBI, suggesting that the investigation is winding
up, a definitive ruling by the attorney general
could be issued before the July 25 Democratic
convention in Philadelphia. Given the inspector
general’s report, a clean bill of health from the
Justice Department is unlikely.
“Finally,
with Mrs. Clinton’s negative rating nearly as high
as Donald Trump’s, and with voters not trusting her
by a ratio of 4 to 1, Democrats face an unnerving
possibility.”
Besides the
lack of trust, voters simply don’t like her. On
Wednesday, the Real Clear Politics poll average of
Clinton’s favorable vs. unfavorable numbers were
37.6 percent to 55.8 percent, an 18.2-point net
unfavorable.
Looking for a Fill-in
Schoen
continued: “There are increasing rumblings within
the party about how a new candidate could emerge at
the convention. John Kerry, the 2004 nominee, is one
possibility. But the most likely scenario is that
Vice President Joe Biden — who has said that he
regrets ‘every day’ his decision not to run — enters
the race.
“Mr. Biden
would be cast as the white knight rescuing the
party, and the nation, from a possible Trump
presidency. To win over Sanders supporters, he would
likely choose as his running mate someone like Sen.
Elizabeth Warren who is respected by the party’s
left wing. …
“All of
these remain merely possibilities. But it is easier
now than ever to imagine a scenario in which Hillary
Clinton — whether by dint of legal or political
circumstances — is not the Democratic presidential
nominee.”
In
a CNN interview after last week’s
scathing State Department Inspector General’s report
on Clinton’s use of her home email server, Carl
Bernstein said he was hearing similar speculation:
“I was in
Washington this week, I spoke to a number of top
Democratic officials and they’re terrified,
including people at the White House, that her
campaign is in freefall because of this distrust
factor. Indeed, Trump has a similar problem, but
she’s the one whose numbers are going south.
“And the
great hope in the White House, as well as the
Democratic leadership and people who support her, is
that she can just get to this convention, get the
nomination – which they’re no longer 100 percent
sure of – and get President Obama out there to
help her, he’s got a lot of credibility… But she
needs all the help she can get because right now her
campaign is in huge trouble.”
On Tuesday,
Clinton received a boost when California Gov. Jerry
Brown endorsed her – reflecting the Democratic
establishment’s view that it is safer to leave
Clinton at the wheel than try to wrestle it away and
face the wrath of Clinton’s female supporters who
insist that it’s “her turn” after she lost a
hard-fought race to Barack Obama in 2008.
Trump also
administered another self-inflicted wound with a
bitterly defensive press conference about his
fund-raising for veteran groups, and he suffered
more bruises with the release of court evidence
about high-pressure sales tactics used by the
now-defunct Trump University.
Trump’s
black Tuesday reminded Democrats why they were so
hopeful that Trump might first blow up the
Republican Party and then blow up his own campaign,
letting Clinton win essentially by default. But the
fragility of Clinton’s own position was exposed by
last week’s IG report, which reinforced public
perceptions that she is imperious, entitled and
dishonest.
Voter Uprising
Ironically,
the two parties reached this collision point from
opposite directions. The Republican Party’s
establishment wanted almost anyone but Trump but the
party’s favored candidates fell victim to the
reality TV star’s skill at exploiting their
weaknesses – almost as if he were playing a
high-stakes reality TV show.
In
contrast, the Democratic Party’s leadership tried to
arrange a coronation for Hillary Clinton by
discouraging other candidates from challenging the
powerful Clinton machine, arguing that a virtually
uncontested nomination would save money and limit
the exposure of Clinton’s political weaknesses.
But the
unlikely candidacy of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders,
technically an Independent although he caucuses with
the Senate Democrats, revealed both a powerful
hunger for change within the Democratic Party and
Clinton’s political vulnerabilities amid a season of
voter discontent.
Whereas
Republican leaders failed to suppress their voters’
uprising – as Trump torched his GOP rivals one after
another – the Democratic leadership did all they
could to save Clinton, virtually pushing her badly
damaged bandwagon toward the finish line while
shouting at Sanders to concede.
But it has
now dawned on some savvy Democrats that Clinton’s
campaign vehicle may be damaged beyond repair,
especially if more harm is inflicted by the FBI’s
findings about her sloppy handling of government
secrets. The Democrats see themselves stuck with a
status-quo, legacy candidate at a moment when the
public is disgusted with government dysfunction and
demanding change.
Yet,
whether the Democrats have the guts to go through
the pain of denying Clinton the nomination may
depend on what happens in California and inside the
FBI.
Investigative reporter Robert Parry
broke many of the Iran-Contra stories for The
Associated Press and Newsweek in the 1980s. You can
buy his latest book,
America’s
Stolen Narrative,
either in print
here or as an e-book (from
Amazon and
barnesandnoble.com).
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