February
Smashes Earth's All-Time Global Heat Record by a
Jaw-Dropping Margin
By Jeff Masters and Bob Henson
March 14, 2016 "Information
Clearing House"
- "WunderBlog"
- On Saturday, NASA dropped a bombshell of a climate
report. February 2016 has soared past all rivals as
the warmest seasonally adjusted month in more than a
century of global recordkeeping. NASA’s analysis
showed that February ran 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the
1951-1980 global average for the month, as can be
seen in the list of
monthly anomalies going back to 1880. The
previous record was set just last month, as January
2016 came in 1.14°C above the 1951-1980 average for
the month. In other words, February has dispensed
with this one-month-old record by a full 0.21°C
(0.38°F)--an extraordinary margin to beat a monthly
world temperature record by. Perhaps even more
remarkable is that February 2015 crushed the
previous February record--set in 1998 during the
peak atmospheric influence of the 1997-98 “super” El
Niño that’s comparable in strength to the current
one--by a massive 0.47°C (0.85°F).
Figure 1. Monthly global surface temperatures
(land and ocean) from NASA for the period 1880 to
February 2016, expressed in departures from the
1951-1980 average. The red line shows the 12-month
running average. Image credit:
Stephan Okhuijsen, datagraver.com, used with
permission.
An ominous milestone in our
march toward an ever-warmer planet
Because there is so much land in the Northern
Hemisphere, and since land temperatures rise and
fall more sharply with the seasons than ocean
temperatures, global readings tend to average about
4°C cooler in January and February than they do in
July or August. Thus, February is not atop the pack
in terms of absolute warmest global temperature:
that record was set in
July 2015. The real significance of the February
record is in its departure from the seasonal norms
that people, plants, animals, and the Earth system
are accustomed to dealing with at a given time of
year. Drawing from NASA’s
graph of long-term temperature trends, if we add
0.2°C as a conservative estimate of the amount of
human-produced warming that occurred between the
late 1800s and 1951-1980, then the February result
winds up at 1.55°C above average. If we use 0.4°C as
a higher-end estimate, then February sits at 1.75°C
above average. Either way, this result is a true
shocker, and yet another reminder of the incessant
long-term rise in global temperature resulting from
human-produced greenhouse gases. Averaged on a
yearly basis, global temperatures are now
around 1.0°C beyond where they stood in the late
19th century, when industrialization was ramping up.
Michael Mann (Pennsylvania State University) notes
that
the human-induced warming is even greater if you
reach back to the very start of the Industrial
Revolution. Making matters worse, even if we could
somehow manage to slash emissions enough to
stabilize concentrations of carbon dioxide at their
current level, we are still committed to at least
0.5°C of additional atmospheric warming as heat
stored in the ocean makes its way into the air, as
recently emphasized by Jerry Meehl (National
Center for Atmospheric Research). In short, we are
now hurtling at a frightening pace toward the
globally agreed maximum of 2.0°C warming over
pre-industrial levels.
El Niño and La Niña are responsible for many of the
one-year up-and-down spikes we see in global
temperature. By spreading warm surface water across
a large swath of the tropical Pacific, El Niño
allows the global oceans to transfer heat more
readily into the atmosphere. El Niño effects on
global temperature typically peak several months
after the highest temperatures occur in the Niño3.4
region of the eastern tropical Pacific. The weekly
Niño3.4 anomalies peaked in mid-November 2015 at a
record +3.1°C , so it’s possible that February
2016 will stand as the apex of the influence of the
2015-16 El Niño on global temperature, although the
first half of March appears to be giving February a
run for its money. We can expect the next several
months to remain well above the long-term average,
and it remains very possible (though not yet
certain) that 2016 will top 2015 as the warmest year
in global record-keeping.
Lower atmosphere also
sets a record in February
Satellite-based estimates of temperature in the
lowest few miles of the atmosphere also set an
impressive global record in February. Calculations
from the University of Alabama in Huntsville show
that February’s reading in the lower atmosphere
marked the largest monthly anomaly since the UAH
dataset began in late 1978. UAH's Dr. Roy Spencer,
who considers himself a climate change skeptic,
told Capital Weather Gang earlier this month,
“There has been warming. The question is how much
warming there’s been and how does that compare to
what’s expected and what’s predicted.” The satellite
readings apply to temperatures miles above Earth’s
surface, rather than what is experienced at the
ground, and a variety of adjustments and bias
corrections in recent years (including an important
one
just this month) have brought satellite-based
readings closer to the surface-observed trends.
Figure 2. Anomalies (departures from average)
in surface temperature across the globe for February
2016, in degrees Centigrade, as analyzed by NASA’s
Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Image credit:
NASA/GISS.
Arctic leads the way
Figure 2 shows a big factor in the February result:
a superheated Arctic. As shown by the darkest-red
splotches in the figure, large parts of Alaska,
Canada, eastern Europe, and Russia, as well as much
of the Arctic Ocean, ran more than 4.0°C (7.2°F)
above average for the month. This unusual warmth
helped drive Arctic sea ice to its
lowest February extent on record in February
2016. The tremendous Arctic warmth was probably
related to interactions among warm air streaming
into the Arctic, warm water extending poleward from
the far northeast Atlantic, and the record-low
extent of Arctic sea ice. Ground Zero for this
pattern was the
Barents and
Kara Seas, north of Scandinavia and western
Russia, where sea ice extent was far below average
in February. Typically, the Norwegian archipelago of
Svalbard--which includes the northernmost civilian
settlements on Earth--is
largely surrounded by ice from early winter into
spring. This winter, the edge of the persistent ice
has stayed
mostly to the north of Svalbard, which has
helped an absurd level of mildness to persist over
the islands for months. Air temperatures at the
Longyearbyen airport (latitude 78°N) have been close
to 10°C (18°F) above average over the past
three-plus months. This is the single most
astounding season-long anomaly we’ve seen for any
station anywhere on Earth. (If anyone can beat it,
please let us know and we’ll add it here!) Update
(March 14): It turns out in the winter of
2013-14, Svalbard was even more amazingly mild: the
Dec-Jan-Feb average was -4.73°C, compared to the
-5.12°C average from this past winter. According to
Deke Arndt (NOAA/NCEI), a handful of high-latitude
stations in Alaska, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway, and
Russia have racked up full-winter anomalies during
past years in the range of 6°C to 8°C above the
1981-2010 average. At least some of these might be
large enough to beat out the 2013-14 and 2015-16
Svalbard anomalies of around 10°C if these other
readings were recalculated against the generally
cooler 1961-1990 base period used by the Norwegian
Meteorological Institute.
Figure 3. Daily temperatures (in Celsius, °C)
for the past year at the Longyearbyen Airport,
Svalbard, Norway, located at latitude 78°N. The
black line shows the seasonal average; blue and red
traces show the day-to-day readings. The darker blue
and red line shows the 30-day running average, which
was 10.2°C (18.4°F) above normal in February. Thus
far in March, the anomaly (not shown here) has been
even larger, close to 12°C (22°F). Image credit:
Norwegian Meteorological Institute.
February's heat had
severe impacts
It has long been agreed upon in international
climate negotiations that a 2°C warming of the Earth
above modern pre-industrial levels represents a
"dangerous" level of warming that the nations of the
world should work diligently to avoid. The December
2015 Paris Climate Accord, signed by 195 nations,
included language on this, and the Accord recommend
that we should keep our planet from warming more
than 1.5°C, if possible. Although the science of
attributing extreme weather events to a warming
climate is still evolving (more on this in an
upcoming post), February 2016 gave us a number of
extreme weather events that were made more probable
by a warmer climate, giving us an excellent example
of how a 2°C warming of the climate can potentially
lead to dangerous impacts. And, as we have been
repeatedly warned might likely be the case, these
impacts came primarily in less developed
nations--the ones with the least resources available
to deal with dangerous climate change. According to
the
February 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance
broker Aon Benfield, three nations suffered extreme
weather disasters in February 2016 that cost at
least 4% of their GDP--roughly the equivalent of
what in the U.S. would be five simultaneous
Hurricane Katrinas. According to
EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database,
these disasters set records for the all-time most
expensive weather-related disaster in their nations'
history. For comparison,
nine nations had their most expensive
weather-related natural disasters in history in all
of 2015, and only one did so in 2014. Here are
the nations that have set records in February 2016
for their most expensive weather-related natural
disaster in history:
Vietnam has suffered $6.7 billion in damage
from its 2016 drought, which has hit farmers
especially hard in the crucial southern Mekong
Delta. This cost is approximately 4% of Vietnam's
GDP, and beats the $785 million cost (2009 USD) of
Typhoon Ketsana of September 28, 2009 for most
expensive disaster in their history. In this image,
we see a boy holding his brother walking across a
drought-hit rice field in Long Phu district,
southern delta province of Soc Trang on March 2,
2016. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.
Zimbabwe has suffered $1.6 billion in damage
from its 2016 drought. This is approximately 12% of
their GDP, and beats the $200 million cost (2003
USD) of a February 2003 flood for most expensive
disaster in their history. Zimbabwe's President
Robert Mugabe on February 5, 2016 declared a 'state
of disaster' in many rural areas hit by a severe
drought, with more than a quarter of the population
facing food shortages. This photo taken on February
7, 2016 shows the fast-drying catchment area of the
Umzingwani dam in Matabeleland, Southwestern
Zimbabwe. Image credit: Ziniyange Auntony/AFP/Getty
Images.
Fiji suffered $470 million in damage from
Category 5 Cyclone Winston's impact in February.
This is approximately 10% of their GDP. The previous
costliest disaster in Fiji was Tropical Cyclone Kina
in January 1993, at $182 million (2016 USD) in
damage. In this image, we see how Category 5 winds
can completely flatten human-built structures:
Fiji's Koro Island received a direct hit from
Winston when the storm was at peak strength with 185
mph winds. Image credit:
My Fijian Images and Jah Ray.
One other severe impact from February's record heat
is the on-going global coral bleaching episode, just
the
third such event in recorded history (1998 and
2010 were the others.)
NOAA's Coral Reef Watch has placed portions of
Australia's Great Barrier Reef under their "Alert
Level 1", meaning that widespread coral bleaching
capable of causing coral death is likely to occur.
Widespread but minor bleaching has
already been reported on the reef, and the
coming month will be critical for determining
whether or not the reef will experience its third
major mass bleaching event on record.
Figure 4. Annual mean carbon dioxide growth
rates for Mauna Loa, Hawaii. In the graph, decadal
averages of the growth rate are also plotted, as
horizontal lines for 1960 through 1969, 1970 through
1979, and so on. The highest one-year growth in CO2
was in 2015, at 3.05 ppm. The El Niño year of 1998
was a close second. The estimated uncertainty in the
Mauna Loa annual mean growth rate is 0.11 ppm/yr.
Image credit: NOAA’s
Greenhouse Gas Reference Network.
Last year saw Earth’s
highest-ever increase in carbon dioxide
Despite efforts to slow down human emissions of
carbon dioxide, 2015 saw the biggest yearly jump in
global CO2 levels ever measured,
said NOAA last week. The annual growth rate of
atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at NOAA’s Mauna
Loa Observatory in Hawaii jumped by 3.05 parts per
million during 2015, the largest year-to-year
increase since measurements began there in 1958. In
another first, 2015 was the fourth consecutive year
that CO2 grew more than 2 ppm, said Pieter Tans,
lead scientist of NOAA's Global Greenhouse Gas
Reference Network. “Carbon dioxide levels are
increasing faster than they have in hundreds of
thousands of years,” Tans said. “It’s explosive
compared to natural processes.” The last time the
Earth experienced such a sustained CO2 increase was
between 17,000 and 11,000 years ago, when CO2 levels
increased by 80 ppm. Today’s rate of increase is 200
times faster, said Tans. In February 2016, the
average global atmospheric CO2 level stood at 402.59
ppm. Prior to 1800, atmospheric CO2 averaged about
280 ppm.
The big jump in CO2 in 2015 is partially due to the
current El Niño weather pattern, as forests, plant
life and other terrestrial systems responded to
changes in weather, precipitation and drought. In
particular, El Niño-driven drought and massive
wildfires in Indonesia were a huge source of CO2 to
the atmosphere in 2015. The largest previous global
increase in CO2 levels occurred in 1998, which was
also a strong El Niño year. However, continued high
emissions from human-caused burning of fossil fuels
are driving the underlying growth rate. We are now
approaching the annual peak in global CO2 levels
that occurs during northern spring, after which the
value will dip by several ppm. It is quite possible
that the annual minimum in late 2016 will for the
first time fail to get below 400 ppm,
as predicted by Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institution
of Oceanography) last October. To track CO2
concentrations at Mauna Loa and global CO2
concentrations, visit NOAA’s
Greenhouse Gas Reference Network and the
Keeling Curve website (Scripps).
For more on Saturday’s bombshell report, check out
the coverage from
Andrew Freedman (Mashable),
Eric Holthaus (Slate), and
Tom Yulsman (Scientific American/ImaGeo). We’ll
have a follow-up post later this week on NOAA’s
global climate report for February and for the
Dec-Feb period, along with a roundup of all-time
records set in February at major stations around the
world. Our next post will be up by Tuesday at the
latest.
Jeff Masters and Bob Henson |