This Is How We Spooked Putin:
What
the New York Times Won’t Tell You About The American
Adventure In Ukraine
The failure of Washington’s most adventurous power
assertion in post-Cold War period can no longer be
papered over
By Patrick L. Smith
February 29, 2016 "Information
Clearing House"
- "Salon"
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All
of a sudden, straight out of nowhere, Ukraine creeps
back into the news.There is renewed fighting in the
rebellious eastern regions. There is political
warfare in Kiev. There is paralysis in the upper
reaches. There is some new formation called the
Revolutionary Right Forces occupying the Maidan—the
very same Independence Square where, two years ago
this past Sunday, months of protests tipped into
violence and an elected president was ousted.
All of a
sudden. Straight out of nowhere.
Now you
know what you are supposed to think as the flowers
of corruption and ultra-right atavism burst forth in
Ukraine. Shall we insist together on remaining in
what is quaintly called the real world?
Ukraine has
gone from political crisis to armed conflict to
humanitarian crisis with no break in the regress
since the American-cultivated coup in February 2014.
But for many months now we have had before us a
textbook example of what I call the Power of Leaving
Out.
The most
daring attempt at “regime change” since righteous
Clintonians invented this self-deceiving euphemism
in the 1990s has come to six-figure casualties, mass
deprivation, a divided nation and a wrecked
economy. If you abide within the policy cliques or
the corporate-owned media, it is best to go quiet as
long as you can in the face of such eventualities.
The short
of it, readers, is that all three chickens now take
up their roosts at once: The Poroshenko government
is on the brink of collapse, neo-Nazi extremists
have forced it to renew hostilities in the east and
there is no letup in the blockade Kiev imposes on
rebelling regions. The last differs from a punitive
starvation strategy only in degree.
The
very short of it is that the more or less complete
failure of Washington’s most adventurous assertion
of power in the post-Cold War period can no longer
be papered over. Even the most corrupted
correspondents have to file
something
when political mutiny and warfare break into the
open—and when non-American media, as is their
peculiar habit, report on these things. It is for
this reason alone you can read a smidge—but only a
smidge—about the events now unfolding in Ukraine in
the New York Times and all other media that reliably
do as the Times does.
This column
has cheered for an American failure in Ukraine since
first forecasting one in the spring of 2014.
Brilliant that it is upon us at last.
Forcing a
nation to live under a neoliberal economic regime so
that American corporations can exploit it freely, as
the Obama administration proposed when it designated
Arseniy Yatsenyuk as prime minister in 2014, is
never to be cheered. Turning a nation of 46 million
into a bare-toothed front line in America’s
obsessive campaign against Russia is never to be
cheered. Forcing the Russian-speaking half of the
country to live under a government that would ban
Russian as a national language if it could is never
to be cheered. The only regret, a great regret of
mind and heart, is that American failures almost
always prove so costly in consequence of the
blindness and arrogance of the policy cliques.
Readers may
remember when, with a defense authorization bill in
debate last June, two congressmen advanced an
amendment banning military assistance to “openly
neo-Nazi” and “fascist” militias waging war against
Ukraine’s eastern regions. John Conyers and Ted Yoho
got two things done in a stroke: They forced public
acknowledgment that “the repulsive neo-Nazi Azov
battalion,” as Conyers put it, was active, and they
shamed the (also repulsive) Republican House to pass
their legislative amendment unanimously.
Obama
signed the defense bill then at issue into law just
before Thanksgiving. The Conyers-Yoho amendment was
deleted but for a single phrase. The bill thus
authorizes, among much, much else, $300 million in
aid this year to “the military and national security
forces in Ukraine.” In a land ruled by euphemisms,
the latter category designates the Azov battalion
and the numerous other fascist militias on which the
Poroshenko government is wholly dependent for its
existence.
An omnibus
spending bill Obama signed a month later included an
additional $250 million for the Ukraine army and its
rightist adjuncts. This is your money, taxpayers,
should you need reminding. As Obama signed these
bills, the White House expressed its satisfaction
that “ideological riders” had been stripped out of
them.
No, you
read next to nothing of this in any American
newspaper. Yes, you now know what the often-lethal
combination of blindness and arrogance looks like in
action. Yes, you can now see why American policy in
Ukraine must fail if this crisis is ever to come to
a rational, humane resolution.
The funds
just noted are in addition to a $1 billion loan
guarantee—in essence another form of aid—that
Secretary of State Kerry announced with fanfare last
year. And that is in addition to the International
Monetary Fund’s $40 billion bailout program, a $17.5
billion tranche of which is now pending. Since the
I.M.F. is the external-relations arm of the U.S.
Treasury (and Managing Director Christine Lagarde
thus the Treasury’s public-relations face) this is a
big commitment on the Obama administration’s part
(which is to say yours and mine).
How are
things on the receiving end, it is natural to ask.
Our money goes to exactly what?
Until
recently, what one heard and read of Ukraine’s
progress into a neoliberal future was almost all
happy talk (or silence, of course). Vice President
Biden, who carries the Ukraine portfolio in the
administration, makes regular trips to laud the
Poroshenko government and the reformist zeal of
Premier Yatsenyuk. This is perhaps only natural,
given Biden’s son is
neck-deep in Ukraine’s resource extraction industry.
Biden sounded a different note during his latest
trip to Kiev, which came in December. Yes, there was
another handout, this one $190 million to help the
Poroshenko government implement “structural reforms”
of the usual antidemocratic kind. (Are you toting up
all these checks?) But Biden was stern, make no
mistake. He shook his finger from the podium in
parliament.
“We
understand how difficult some of the votes for
reforms are, but they are critical for putting
Ukraine back on the right path,” Biden said. “As
long as you continue to make progress in fighting
corruption and build a future of opportunity for all
Ukraine, the U.S. will stand with you.”
Back
on the right path?
Continue
to make progress?
Since
euphemisms are an American export item, familiar in
euphemism markets the world over, a translation: You
are embarrassing us because you have done nothing.
We gave you a window to pass legislation before the
Ukrainian people figured out how awful it would make
their lives. You’re blowing it as we speak. Hurry
up. Meantime, here is another couple of hundred
million.
A few days ago
Geoffrey Pyatt, the American ambassador in Kiev, put
in his two cents. (No check this time.) Pyatt,
readers will surely recall, did the gumshoe work for
Victoria Nuland, the assistant secretary of state
who engineered Yatsenyuk’s elevation to the
premiership two years ago. His concern was grave as
he addressed a defense and security seminar: He
wants to see “meaningful steps to reform the trade
and investment climate.” These are, of course, the
abiding passions of every un- or under-employed
Ukrainian.
“Ukraine has
said that it wants to become a major defense
exporter,” the ambassador elaborated. “I know that
is possible, given the extraordinary capabilities
that I have seen the Ukrainian industry demonstrate,
but it can only happen if Ukraine continues to press
ahead on critical reforms, tackles corruption, and
works to meet NATO standards. This will require a
paradigm shift in Ukraine’s defense industry, and a
move away from a mindset of state-owned
enterprises….”
Pyatt
refers to a very specific circumstance in the above
passage. Ukraine is a cesspit of illegal arms
dealing, and this is a wellspring of corruption and
illicit profit American defense contractors want to
partake of. A source in Europe who is familiar with
the trade but not part of it explained things this
way in a note the other day:
“Ukraine has been the
plaque tournant
[hub, lively market] of illegal arms trade since
the end of the U.S.S.R. The mob, the Kiev
military, the far-right groups and some of the
oligarchs all participate at different levels in
this very, very dirty business…. None, as in
none of this has been touched by the Kiev
regime….”
This
tableau of trade in deadly devices is surely what
Pyatt meant by “the extraordinary capabilities” he
has witnessed among Ukraine’s weapons dealers.
*
See where
we are headed here? The project is to neoliberalize
Ukraine and make its defense machine, now so corrupt
nobody but the Pentagon will provide it any
assistance, NATO-compatible. But none of this is
proceeding to plan.
The absence
of “structural reform”—a phrase I have loved since
my correspondent days for all the anti-social
savagery it masks—is one problem. But it is the
corruption that comes to crisis of late. There has
been no sign of improvement since the February 2014
events; now it is worse than under any previous
government, including the one ousted two years ago,
my sources in Europe report.
“Corruption continues to be the worst at any time
since the collapse of the U.S.S.R.,” a source with
close contacts in Kiev writes. “Recently even the
I.M.F.—i.e., the international office of U.S.
Treasury, run by [Under Secretary] David Lipton—read
the riot act…. The economy is in free fall…. The
most competent ministers have left, resigned due to
the inability to get anything significant
done. Berlin and Paris are, I am told by Quai
d’Orsay [French foreign ministry] contacts,
“completement
exacerbés”
[highly aggravated, made furious] by the Kiev
regime. There are demos practically every day
against the gov’t.—of course, not reported in the
int’l. media.”
The
resignation this source had in mind was that of
Aivaras Abromavicius, who stepped down earlier this
month as economic development minister with this
parting comment: “Neither me, nor my team, has any
desire to serve as a cover-up for the covert
corruption, or become puppets for those who, very
much like the ‘old’ government, are trying to
exercise control over the flow of public funds.”
Abromavicius, a Lithuanian by birth and a former
fund manager, was among several foreign technocrats
appointed to the Poroshenko cabinet—more or less by
the I.M.F., and hence the Americans—to see through
the neoliberal project. Subsequent to his departure,
Lagarde let loose with her well-publicized warning:
Clean up the act or the $17.5 billion check on my
desk does not get signed.
The act
that needs to be scoured has two parts. Apart from
the questions of corruption and “free-market”
reform, there are the terms of the ceasefire
agreement signed last year and known as Minsk II for
the city where it was negotiated. Minsk II calls for
constitutional revision allowing the eastern regions
a significant degree of autonomy, their own
elections, and a decentralization of administrative
authority to give Ukraine something like a
federalized national structure.
This is, of
course, the rational way to a resolution of the
Ukraine crisis given the nation’s history, culture
and languages. Why is Kiev paralyzed on both fronts?
The
corruption question is easy. Nothing gets done
because the same people in power when Viktor
Yanukovych was ousted two years ago are in power
now.
Washington’s problem with Yanukovych was never
corruption, we need to note. It was his view of
Ukraine: An easterner, he considered that the
nation’s long and close involvement with Russia had
to be accommodated along with the western region’s
tilt toward Europe. Many deaths and much destruction
later, this is what Minsk II is intended to do.
No,
Washington has a problem with Ukraine’s corruption
now for the reasons Joe Biden and Geoffrey Pyatt
make perfectly plain: Western corporations cannot
put their money down on the table so long as
Ukrainian bureaucrats, generals and business people
keep stealing it at so obnoxious a rate.
As to Minsk
II, we can also note that none the visitors to
Ukraine of late appears to give a hoot that the
Proshenko government has done nothing to fulfill its
obligations. This is because they have no hoot to
give.
As of
Monday we have two exceptions, however. Frank-Walter
Steinmeier and Jean-Marc Ayrault, the German and
French foreign ministers, have just finished talks
in Kiev en route to Russia to negotiate the forward
motion of Minsk II’s provisions after months of
stagnation.
At the outset, as one of my
European sources said, they were
“completement exacerbés.”
And they were
exacerbés,
understandably, because it is lately clear
that the Poroshenko government is incapable
of moving on Minsk II. It is, in effect, the
hostage of the right-wing militias that were
long said to exist only in the imaginations
of Russian propagandists.
Azov and the other militias, the Svoboda
party and Right Sektor, a Svoboda offspring,
have made their position clear since
Germany, France and Christine Lagarde forced
Poroshenko to sign Minsk II last year: Make
one move to accommodate the accord and we
will bring you down. At this point the
barely competent maker of chocolates is
squeezed into a corner so tight it is not
clear he will be able to breathe much
longer.
On one hand the
exacerbés
Europeans want Minsk II
implemented; it was supposed to be by the
end of last year. They want tensions on
their border with Russia to ease, they are
impatient with Washington’s sanctions regime
and it is as plain as day now that Ash
Carter’s Pentagon and General Breedlove’s
NATO will run all the miles they can so long
as Ukraine gives them an excuse to do so.
This pair loves Ukraine to bits—and may
literally do so, depending on how things go.
As Stephen Cohen, the noted
Russianist, writes in a comment
published in The Nation this week, with
Defense Secretary Carter’s recent
announcement that the Pentagon will
quadruple spending on U.S. and NATO forces
in Europe, “Western military power has never
been positioned so close to Russia.”
This kind of Russian roulette, as Cohen
terms it, is not a game Europeans like
playing. Although “the Europeans have no
foreign policy of their own,” as Vladimir
Putin astutely observed in a video recording
released last week, they have at least
recognized that Russia is more logically a
partner, however attenuated the partnership,
than an adversary.
That is the one hand. On the other,
Poroshenko is fighting for his political
life in Kiev. Last week he called for the
universally unpopular Yatsenyuk—bearer of
the neoliberal banner, whose approval rating
is below 5 percent—to resign. But it shapes
up as too little and too late.
Over the weekend and into
this week, sections of the ultra-right,
calling themselves Revolutionary Right
Forces, gathered in Maidan to mark the
second anniversary of the revolution. Having
bombed three Russian banks while the police
stood by without intervening, they
effectively called for another revolt by way
of a hefty list of demands. They want
Poroshenko’s head, too. They want mass
resignations of the generals, the
bureaucrats, and the politicians. They
demand the government repudiate Minsk II
en bloc
and impose martial law in the eastern
regions and Crimea.
Now
tell me, are you surprised that the war in
the east has suddenly resumed? Are you
surprised that nowhere in any American news
account is it made clear who recommenced the
hostilities? The Times account carried in
Monday’s paper is so pointedly evasive one
must conclude they ran the story only
because the Power of Leaving Out no longer
quite does it.
There is movement in Ukraine: This we can
say. Sometime this year the Americans and
the I.M.F. may quietly acknowledge that they
chose the wrong puppets and step back, in
which case failure will be self-evident.
This is doubtful, however. They are not
smart enough and lack sufficient integrity.
Berlin, Paris and Moscow may continue to
make common cause and more or less impose
Minsk II on Kiev. It is quite possible. In
this case the American failure will also be
evident, if more subtly. Washington will
claim the success, if it stays true to form.
Or
the war in the eastern regions will escalate
and grow very dangerous well beyond Ukraine.
This is all too possible at the moment. It
is probably the favored way forward in
Washington and Kiev, but it will turn out to
be merely failure of another, more brutal
kind.
No
ideological riders, as the Obama White House
likes to put it.
Patrick Smith is Salon’s foreign affairs
columnist. A longtime correspondent abroad,
chiefly for the International Herald Tribune
and The New Yorker, he is also an essayist,
critic and editor. His most recent books are
“Time No Longer: Americans After the
American Century” (Yale, 2013) and Somebody
Else’s Century: East and West in a
Post-Western World (Pantheon, 2010). Follow
him @thefloutist. His web site is patricklawrence.us.
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