In short,
Washington and its allies want regime change,
while Russia and Iran insist that President
Bashar Assad and his government are the
legitimate ruling authorities in Syria. All
sides are mandated by UN resolutions to respect
the sovereign will of the Syrian people – to
determine the political future of their country.
But the
Western powers and their regional partners,
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar in particular,
are insisting – explicitly or implicitly – on
their objective of ousting Assad. This premise
of unlawful interference in the affairs of a
sovereign state is the crux of the problem, and
why the latest seeming agreement for a
nationwide truce is as thin as the paper it is
written on.
US
Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced the
proposal for a cessation of hostilities
following six hours of negotiations with 15
other member states belonging to the
International Syria Support Group in Munich last
Friday. The truce is supposed to come into
effect later this week.
The
truce outlined in an ISSG communique does not
apply to two militant groups: Islamic State (IS,
also known as ISIL/ISIL or Daesh) and the Jabhat
al Nusra Front. Both are linked to Al Qaeda and
are officially listed by international
governments as terrorist organizations. The
provision also exempts “other terror groups”
but does not specify the names. This is a major
loophole in the proposed truce deal which will
make its application extremely problematic if
not infeasible. That loophole also alludes to
the foreign-backed nature of the conflict in
Syria.
Following the Munich communique, the Syrian
government and its Russian ally both said that
their combined military operations against
terror groups would continue.
President Assad vowed that
his armed forces were moving ahead with their
offensive, backed by Russian air power, to “retake
the whole country.” He said the battle for
the northern city of Aleppo – the country’s
largest – was crucial to “cut off terrorist
supply routes from Turkey.”
Given
the delineation of terror groups in the Munich
communique and in recent UN resolutions (2249
and 2254), it would appear incontestable that
the Syrian government and its Russian and
Iranian allies have every right to maintain the
military momentum.
Yet
Syria and Russia’s continued offensive around
Aleppo over the weekend provoked recriminations
from Western powers. Western media coverage
tended to portray the continuation of military
operations as a bad faith breach of the
tentative truce.
Reuters news
agency reported: “Russia
keeps bombing despite Syria truce; Assad vows to
fight on.”
Secretary Kerry expressed irritation when he said:
“If the Assad regime does not live up to its
responsibilities and if the Iranians and the
Russians do not hold Assad to the promises that
they have made... then the international
community obviously is not going to sit there
like fools and watch this. There will be an
increase of activity to put greater pressure on
them.”
Kerry
even warned that “greater pressure” could
involve foreign troops being sent into Syria,
without naming from which countries, saying: “There
is a possibility there will be additional ground
troops.”
The top American diplomat made the comments
while attending the Munich Security Conference
along with several world leaders, held the day
after the truce deal was brokered by the ISSG.
Kerry
told delegates ominously: “We
hope this week can be a week of change. This
moment is a hinge point. Decisions made in the
coming days, weeks and months can end the war in
Syria. Or, if the wrong choices are made, they
can open the door to even wider conflict.”
Russian
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev also addressed
the Munich conference, but he warned that any
ground invasion in Syria by foreign forces ran
the grave risk of unleashing an all-out war.
Over
the weekend, it was
reported that Saudi F-16 warplanes are to
begin flying out of Turkey’s NATO base at
Incirlik, allegedly on combat operations against
the Islamic State terror group in Syria. Turkish
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that a
combined Saudi-Turkish ground force was ready to
intervene in Syria, and there were reports of
cross-border Turkish artillery shelling of
Syrian Kurdish sites.
The nub
of the proposed truce is that Syria and Russia
are legally entitled to eradicate ISIS, Al Nusra
and related groups. Strategically, too, it can
be argued that the defeat of such illegally
armed insurgents is a priority task in creating
conditions for an end to the five-year conflict.
However, “the related terror groups” also
include many other militants whom Western
governments and Western media mendaciously refer
to as “moderate rebels.” So, while the
Syrian Arab Army and Russian fighter planes can
legitimately make the case that these groups are
to be targeted, Washington and its allies will
deceptively allege that Moscow is attacking “moderate
rebels.”
This is a risible fiction constructed by Western
governments, their regional partners and the
Western media. It is well documented that groups
like Jaish al-Islam, Jaish al-Fateh, Ahrar
al-Sham and Farouq Brigade – heavily sponsored
by Saudi Arabia and Qatar – are integrated with
the officially recognized Al Qaeda terrorist
organizations. Even the so-called “secular” Free
Syrian Army – much championed by Washington – is
in league with ISIS and Al Nusra, as are the
Turkmen brigades openly supported by
the Turkish government.
US
government-owned news outlet Voice of America described the
terror-rebel connection in the following
delicate way: “The Munich deal writes out any
cessation of hostilities for not only the
Islamic State but [al Qaeda] affiliate Jabhat
al-Nusra or other groups deemed terrorists by
the UN Security Council. Some of those groups,
aside from IS, have been battlefield allies of
other rebel factions around Aleppo.”
Meanwhile, the Washington Post
admitted that Jabhat al-Nusra “in some
instances fights alongside rebel forces
supported by the United States and its allies.”
The Post article added that even in the event of
a truce taking hold:
“The United States and its partners would
continue their current level of equipping and
training the opposition so as not to leave the
rebels at a disadvantage if the cessation of
hostilities collapses.”
The
cessation that Washington has assiduously tried
to craft is not premised on finding a genuine
end to the conflict. Rather, it is evidently a
tactical pause to afford proxy forces on the
ground badly needed respite from the
Syrian-Russian onslaught. That onslaught is
threatening to wipe out the myriad terror- and
terrorist-related brigades.
That’s
why John Kerry has been so concerned to stymie
Russia’s intervention. That intervention ordered
by President Vladimir Putin less than five
months ago is wiping out terror assets that
Washington and its allies have invested in for
regime change in Syria over five years. That
investment is going up in smoke, and that is
also why Washington and its regional partners
Turkey and Saudi Arabia are reserving a direct
military contingency – in order to salvage their
regime-change project.
The
proposed cessation in Syria is a long shot that
will miss the mark of bringing peace to the
war-devastated country. Because Washington and
its allies are not interested in peace. They
want regime change – by hook or by crook.
Finian Cunningham worked as a scientific editor
for the Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge,
England, before pursuing a career in newspaper
journalism. For over 20 years he worked as an
editor and writer in major news media
organizations, including The Mirror, Irish Times
and Independent. Now a freelance journalist
based in East Africa, his columns appear on RT,
Sputnik, Strategic Culture Foundation and Press
TV.