Letting US
‘Lead’ Against Islamic State
America’s Mideast “allies” are less eager to take on
Islamic State terrorists themselves than to urge the
U.S. military to do so, raising questions about
whether much of today’s campaign-trail tough-guy/gal
talk about Washington taking the lead really means
doing the dirty work for Saudi Arabia, Israel and
others, as ex-CIA analyst Paul R. Pillar explains.
By Paul R. Pillar
January 31, 2016 "Information
Clearing House"
- "Consortium
News"
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A recent
column by David Ignatius contains an important
insight about how different countries perceive their
roles in countering the extremist group known as
ISIS. Ignatius observed a table-top war game at
Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.
The game scenario involved ISIS seizing control of a
province in southern Syria and conducting
cross-border attacks that inflict casualties on the
armed forces of both Israel and Jordan.
The teams
playing the roles of the Israeli and Jordanian
governments both acted with restraint, hoping not to
be drawn deeply into the Syrian war. The Israeli
team retaliated for ISIS killing its soldiers but
did not initiate any major military operations. The
Jordanian team was looking for the Syrian regime and
its Russian backer to use force to eject ISIS from
its new position in southern Syria.
The Israeli
team was led by a retired general who previously
headed the planning staff of the Israel Defense
Forces. Ignatius confirmed with a later visit to
Israeli military headquarters that the game
accurately reflected how Israel’s actual military
leaders currently view the war in Syria. He cites a
senior Israeli military official as saying that if
Israel wanted to launch a major ground offensive
against ISIS forces in southern Syria (as well as
ISIS-connected militants in the Sinai Peninsula), it
could wipe out the ISIS forces in three or four
hours.
“But,” the
official continued, “what would happen the day
after? Right now, we think it will be worse.” That
is a terse but correct statement of the key question
and main problem involved in any ideas at the
present time about escalating the use of force in an
effort to destroy ISIS.
When it
comes to how most Israeli officials talk about the
U.S. role, however, they say something different.
According to Ignatius, “They argue that the United
States is a superpower, and that if it wants to
maintain leadership in the region, it must lead the
fight to roll back the Islamic State.”
That’s not
leadership; it would be, among other things, a free
rider problem.
It’s not
just the Israelis and Jordanians who are thinking
along such lines. Although U.S. Secretary of Defense
Ashton Carter says, “I have personally reached out
to the ministers of defense in over forty countries
around the world to ask them to contribute to
enhancing the fight against ISIL,” the New York
Times
reports that “the United States has had little
success in persuading allies to provide more
troops.”
It is quite
rational and unsurprising for other countries to
behave as they have on this issue, both because of
the long-term prospects for ineffectiveness that the
Israeli official noted and as a matter of
burden-shifting.
As Ignatius
puts it, “Most players still want to hold America’s
coat while the United States does the bulk of the
fighting.”
It may be
in the interest of those players for the roles to be
apportioned that way; it certainly is not in the
interests of the United States for the roles to be
apportioned that way. And the question about what
happens the day after applies to the United States
as it would to Israel or any other party that might
intervene.
All of this
is related to warped but nonetheless commonly
expressed views within the United States about what
constitutes U.S. leadership abroad, in the Middle
East or anywhere else. Too often what is labeled as
leadership is really more like followership, in that
it gets measured in terms of what other,
coat-holding governments would like the United
States to do. Also too often, leadership is equated
with sounding bellicose or doing tough-looking,
kinetic things such as escalating the use of
military force.
The warped
views of U.S. global leadership do not correspond to
what generally is understood to constitute
leadership in other contexts, such as a corporation
or other organization. In those places, for the boss
to do everything himself or herself is not seen as
leadership but rather as a sign of inability to
exercise leadership.
True
leadership instead involves persuading everybody in
an enterprise that they are part of a common effort
with important goals, and motivating them to work
together to do their parts of the job. Maybe
Secretary Carter is not demonstrating effective
leadership in his failure to get other countries to
contribute more in fighting ISIS, or maybe the
interests of those countries just make it difficult
for even the most skillful leader to make much
headway on that front. But it should not be a matter
of the United States doing it all.
Sometimes a
leader does have to get ahead of what other players
are doing, but as a way of pointing them in the
right direction and inspiring them to act as well,
not as an alternative to their acting.
Underlying
all of this as far as the ISIS problem is concerned
is the question of whom the group most threatens. As
measured by generation of refugees, destabilization
of one’s region, and potential for direct physical
harm, the United States has less reason to feel
threatened than do many other countries, including
the coat-holders.
Paul R.
Pillar, in his 28 years at the Central Intelligence
Agency, rose to be one of the agency’s top analysts.
He is now a visiting professor at Georgetown
University for security studies. (This article first
appeared as a
blog post at The National Interest’s Web site.
Reprinted with author’s permission.)
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