No, The
Nuclear Sanctions On Iran Did Not Work
By Moon Of Alabama
January 19, 2016 "Information
Clearing House"
- "Moon
Of Alabama"
-Some
(not so) smart people
believe that the implementation of the Iranian
nuclear deal shows that "sanctions worked":
Doug
Saunders @DougSaunders
The Iran paradox: this week proved that
sanctions worked. So it was the worst week for
US Congress to impose new sanctions
10:42 AM - 17 Jan 2016
This is
completely wrong. Sanctions did not work in the case
of the nuclear issue with Iran. Sanctions will also
not work one Iran's ballistic missile program.
Other
authors have already
expanded on this in length but it needs
repeating.
For Iran
the development of a civil nuclear program for
electricity and other needs was and is seen as a
precondition to become a fully developed modern
state. The U.S. and Israel wanted to prevent that.
Israel sees Iran as a competing power in the Middle
East and the U.S. sees Iran as too independent and
too powerful to be left alone. Both want to restrict
Iran's development unless Iran agrees to again
become the client state it once was.
The vehicle
to pressure Iran was its nuclear program and an
assertion that "Iran has no right to an enrich"
Uranium. That assertion
was wrong as a legal argument as any state has a
natural right to use its resources as it like but
the U.S. went to great length to make that claim. If
it would have gotten its way it would have achieved
a veto over how Iran, and others, could manage and
use its natural resources.
It was that
U.S. claim and Iran's will to resist it that
prolonged the conflict over a decade. After first
(false) claims were made that Iran was developing
nuclear weapons negotiations ensued and made fast
progress. Iran was willing to restrict its
activities and to have its nuclear program under
full inspection. But its was the U.S. "no right to
enrichment" point that blocked any solution.
Writes UK negotiator Peter Jenkins:
Having
served on the UK’s Iran Nuclear negotiating team
in 2004 and 2005, I know that in March 2005
President Hassan Rouhani and Minister Javad
Zarif, then in different roles, were ready to
offer a deal very similar in its essentials to
the JCPOA.
At that
time Iran had only a few experimental centrifuges
and little enriched Uranium.
But the
U.S. insisted that Iran had no right to enrichment
and blew the negotiations. Sanctions followed and
Iran responded by building up more enrichment
capabilities. Several more sanction rounds followed
and Iran responded to each round by again increasing
its capabilities. After the last round of sanction
Iran
announced that it would create highly enriched
Uranium to fuel nuclear submarines.
At that
point the U.S. finally understood that it was
senseless and impossible to ever increase
international sanctions as a way to stop Iran's
nuclear program. Only two alternatives were left. A
very aggressive and expensive military attack on
Iran followed by a lengthy occupation for which the
U.S. public had zero appetite or negotiations and
concessions to settle the issue.
A new
negotiation round started in November 2013 and at
the core of the issue
was again Iran's right to enrich:
Disagreement over whether Iran has the right
under international law to enrich uranium goes
to the heart of the decade-old dispute over its
nuclear program and has complicated diplomacy to
end the standoff.
Iranian
officials made clear on the third day of talks
in Geneva on Friday that the Islamic state's
"right" to enrich uranium must be part of any
interim deal aimed at curbing its atomic
activity in exchange for some sanctions relief.
...
The United States says no country has that
explicit right under the Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT), the 1970 global pact designed to
prevent the spread of atomic bombs.
During
those negotiations in 2013 the U.S. finally caved
and a few days later an preliminary agreement was
reached:
The
initial nuclear deal struck with Iran at the
weekend states unambiguously that the second
step – or “comprehensive solution” – will
“involve a mutually defined enrichment program
with practical limits.”
The
wording allows Tehran to state that the U.S. and
five other powers in the negotiations have
conceded that a final agreement, due within six
months, will leave Iran with a domestic
uranium-enrichment program.
Iran
interpreted that as the acknowledgement of its right
to Uranium enrichment. After this key issue was
solved further negotiations were about give-and-take
points but no longer about a fundamental
disagreement.
As was
revealed only later the U.S. had
given up on the "no right to enrichment" claim
even before the November 2013 negotiations:
The secret
US-Iran diplomatic channel that helped advance
the interim nuclear deal last year got underway
after a message from US President Barack Obama
was conveyed to Iran: The United States
would be prepared to accept a limited Iranian
domestic enrichment program as part of
a nuclear agreement in which Iran would take
concrete and verifiable steps to assure the
world its nuclear program would remain
exclusively peaceful.
...
Obama’s message that he would be prepared to
accept a limited Iranian enrichment program in
an otherwise acceptable deal was conveyed to
Iran at a secret meeting in Oman in March 2013,
by a US delegation led by Deputy Secretary of
State Bill Burns, which also included Jake
Sullivan, now Vice President Joe Biden’s
national security adviser, as well as Einhorn
and then-White House Iran adviser Puneet Talwar.
It was the
U.S. that caved and pulled back from its
(indefensible) position that Iran was not allowed to
enrich Uranium. It was this concession by the U.S. -
not the sanctions - that brought Iran to the table
and which allowed to end the conflict over Iran's
nuclear program. |