Will
Mideast Allies Drag Us Into War?
By Patrick J.
Buchanan
January 05, 2015 "Information
Clearing House" -
The New
Year's execution by Saudi Arabia of the Shiite
cleric Sheikh Nimr Baqir al-Nimr was a deliberate
provocation.
Its first
purpose: Signal the new ruthlessness and resolve of
the Saudi monarchy where the power behind the throne
is the octogenarian King Salman's son, the
30-year-old Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman.
Second,
crystallize, widen and deepen a national-religious
divide between Sunni and Shiite, Arab and Persian,
Riyadh and Tehran.
Third,
rupture the rapprochement between Iran and the
United States and abort the Iranian nuclear deal.
The
provocation succeeded in its near-term goal. An
Iranian mob gutted and burned the Saudi embassy,
causing diplomats to flee, and Riyadh to sever
diplomatic ties.
From
Baghdad to Bahrain, Shiites protested the execution
of a cleric who, while a severe critic of Saudi
despotism and a champion of Shiite rights, was not
convicted of inciting revolution or terror.
In America,
the reaction has been divided.
The Wall
Street Journal rushed, sword in hand, to the side of
the Saudi royals: "The U.S. should make clear to
Iran and Russia that it will defend the Kingdom from
Iranian attempts to destabilize or invade."
The
Washington Post was disgusted. In an editorial, "A
Reckless Regime," it called the execution risky,
ruthless and unjustified.
Yet there
is a lesson here.
Like every
regime in the Middle East, the Saudis look out for
their own national interests first. And their goals
here are to first force us to choose between them
and Iran, and then to conscript U.S. power on their
side in the coming wars of the Middle East.
Thus the
Saudis went AWOL from the battle against ISIS and
al-Qaida in Iraq and Syria. Yet they persuaded us to
help them crush the Houthi rebels in Yemen, though
the Houthis never attacked us and would have
exterminated al-Qaida.
Now that a
Saudi coalition has driven the Houthis back toward
their northern basecamp, ISIS and al-Qaida have
moved into some of the vacated terrain. What kind of
victory is that — for us?
In the
economic realm, also, the Saudis are doing us no
favors.
While
Riyadh is keeping up oil production and steadily
bringing down the world price on which Iranian and
Russian prosperity hangs, the Saudis are also
crippling the U.S. fracking industry they fear.
The Turks,
too, look out for number one. The Turkish shoot-down
of that Russian fighter-bomber, which may have
intruded into its airspace for 17 seconds, was both
a case in point and a dangerous and provocative act.
Had
Vladimir Putin chosen to respond militarily against
Turkey, a NATO ally, his justified retaliation could
have produced demands from Ankara for the United
States to come to its defense against Russia.
A military
clash with our former Cold War adversary, which half
a dozen U.S. presidents skillfully avoided, might
well have been at hand.
These
incidents raise some long-dormant but overdue
questions.
What
exactly is our vital interest in a permanent
military alliance that obligates us to go to war on
behalf of an autocratic ally as erratic and rash as
Turkey's Tayyip Recep Erdogan?
Do
U.S.-Turkish interests really coincide today?
While
Turkey's half-million-man army could easily seal the
Syrian border and keep ISIS fighters from entering
or leaving, it has failed to do so. Instead, Turkey
is using its army to crush the Kurdish PKK and
threaten the Syrian Kurds who are helping us battle
ISIS.
In Syria's
civil war — with the army of Bashar Assad battling
ISIS and al-Qaida — it is Russia and Iran and even
Hezbollah that seem to be more allies of the moment
than the Turks, Saudis or Gulf Arabs.
"We have no
permanent allies ... no permanent enemies ... only
permanent interests" is a loose translation of the
dictum of the 19th century British Prime Minister
Lord Palmerston.
Turkey's
shoot-down of a Russian jet and the Saudi execution
of a revered Shiite cleric, who threatened no one in
prison, should cause the United States to undertake
a cost-benefit analysis of the alliances and war
guarantees we have outstanding, many of them dating
back half a century.
Do all, do
any, still serve U.S. vital national interests?
In the
Middle East, where the crucial Western interest is
oil, and every nation — Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq,
Libya — has to sell it to survive — no nation should
be able drag us into a war not of our own choosing.
In cases
where we share a common enemy, we should follow the
wise counsel of the Founding Fathers and entrust our
security, if need be, to "temporary," but not
"permanent" or "entangling alliances."
Moreover,
given the myriad religious, national and tribal
divisions between the nations of the Middle East,
and within many of them, we should continue in the
footsteps of our fathers, who kept us out of such
wars when they bedeviled the European continent of
the 19th century.
This
hubristic Saudi blunder should be a wake-up call for
us all.
Patrick
J. Buchanan is the author of the new book "The
Greatest Comeback: How Richard Nixon Rose From
Defeat to Create the New Majority." To find out more
about Patrick Buchanan and read features by other
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