That
provocation would appear to be aimed at
inflaming sectarian tensions and fomenting
conflict in various regional countries – already
near flashpoint – in order to further Saudi
geopolitical interests. Central to those
interests is, as always, the bitter rivalry with
the region’s Shiite powerhouse, Iran.
Following
the announcement at the weekend by the Saudi
Interior Ministry that Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr
al-Nimr had been executed, along with 46 other
prisoners, there was predictable
outrage from across the region, especially
among countries where there is a large Shiite
following, such as Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and
Bahrain. Iran denounced the radical Sunni Saudi
rulers as “criminal” and accused them of
carrying out an act that is “the depth of
imprudence and irresponsibility.”
Iran’s
Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, compared
the House of Saud with Daesh, the extremist
terror group (also known as Islamic State, and
previously ISIS/ISIL). Of note is the way that
the kingdom executes opponents by beheading
according to a similar stringent interpretation
of Islamic Sharia law known as Wahhabism –
shared by both the Saudi regime and the cadres
of Daesh.
Former
Iraqi Prime Minster Nouri al-Maliki said
that the imposition of capital punishment would
lead to the downfall of the Saudi rulers, with
other Iraqi politicians saying that it would “open
the gates of hell” across the volatile and
religiously fraught region.
The
United States and European Union also responded
with alarm at the execution of al-Nimr, both
warning of deepening sectarian tensions being
exacerbated by the Saudi death penalty.
Sheikh
al-Nimr was executed on Saturday, along with 46
other prisoners in what is believed to have been
the biggest mass execution in Saudi Arabia for
over three decades. The death sentences were
carried out in 12 prison locations by
decapitation or firing squad, according
to reports. Most of those sentenced were
alleged members of the Al-Qaeda terror group,
who had been accused of carrying out deadly
attacks against Western interests in Saudi
Arabia between 2003 and 2006.
Nimr
al-Nimr was among four Shiite activists who were
executed at the weekend. They were convicted on
several charges of subversion and terrorism in
trials that were dismissed by international
rights groups as a travesty of judicial process.
Sheikh al-Nimr was arrested in 2012 and accused
of inciting violent protests, but supporters
point out that the respected cleric always
publicly endorsed peaceful protest. One of his
best-known statements was: “The power of the
word is mightier than the roar of bullets.”
In
October, al-Nimr lost a judicial appeal against
his death sentence. There then followed several
international appeals for clemency. The Iranian
government in particular issued several
statements calling for the cleric’s life to be
spared.
The
widely seen miscarriage of justice against
al-Nimr and the chilling determination to carry
out his execution in spite of appeals for
clemency is what makes the case so incendiary.
Lebanese Shiite resistance movement Hezbollah condemned
Saudi Arabia’s conduct as “an assassination,”
while Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps vowed
that the Saudi rulers would meet with “harsh
vengeance.”
In
Yemen, where Saudi Arabia and a coalition of
other Sunni Arab states have been carrying out
airstrikes for the past nine months, the mainly
Shiite Houthi rebels also condemned the
execution of al-Nimr and promised retribution
for his death. At the weekend, it was reported
that 24 Saudi troops were killed in a Houthi
rocket attack on the Saudi border province of
Jizan. It is not clear if the attack preceded
the announced execution of al-Nimr.
The
Saudi regime has previously accused Iran and
Hezbollah of fueling the Houthi rebellion in
Yemen. Tehran has rejected claims of militarily
supporting the insurgents. But it would be a
fair assumption that Iran and Hezbollah will
henceforth step up military intervention in
Yemen as a way of striking back at the Saudis.
The
same response is envisaged for Iranian and
Hezbollah involvement in Syria, where the Saudis
have bankrolled and armed various
anti-government militia, primarily so-called
radical Islamist groups with a shared Wahhabi
fundamentalist ideology. These groups include
Jaish al Islam (Army of Islam), whose leader
Zahran Alloush was killed in a Syrian airstrike
near Damascus on December 25. The Saudi regime
publicly rebuked the killing of Alloush, saying
that it jeopardized the forthcoming UN-sponsored
peace talks in Geneva on Syria.
The
House of Saud, led by King Salman, is known to
be not in favor of the Geneva talks, which
Washington and Moscow have both endorsed. The
Saudis are dismayed by the seeming compromise
made by Washington towards the Russian position,
which is that the political future of Syria must
be decided by the Syrian people through
elections. The erstwhile demand by Washington
that Syria’s President Bashar Assad must stand
down as a precondition for peace talks has been
abandoned – leaving the Saudis, Turkey and the
extremist militia groups in Syria as the only
parties persisting with the call for Assad to
go.
It is
perhaps significant that Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan held
a “strategic summit” with Saudi King Salman in
Riyadh only days before the execution of Nimr
al-Nimr.
Russia’s military intervention in Syria, from
the end of September, has been a resounding
success in terms of stabilizing the Syrian
government of Bashar Assad. Even the Obama
administration has recently acknowledged the
strategic success for Russian President Vladimir
Putin in Syria.
That
military success can also be attributed to Iran
and Hezbollah, as well as to Iraq, which have
all contributed to the gains made by the Syrian
Arab Army on the ground.
The
biggest loser is the axis for covert regime
change in Syria, led by Washington, London and
Paris, together with their regional allies in
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. While Washington
and the other Western powers have the nous to
switch tactics from backing a covert insurgency
to belatedly trying a political process for
eventual regime change in Syria, it would appear
that the Saudis and Turks are still committed to
the covert war agenda
In that
way, the Russian-backed military alliance in
Syria is a particularly damaging broadside to
Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
From
the Saudi point of view, one way of trying to
salvage their losses in Syria and ongoing
setbacks in Yemen would be to blow up the region
with an explosion in sectarian conflicts. For
many people, of course, such a gambit is insane.
But if the House of Saud can provoke a firestorm
between Sunnis and Shiites, that would in turn
polarize relations between Washington and
Moscow, leading to a wider war across the
region.
Having
lost in their Machiavellian schemes for regime
change in Syria, the House of Saud seems to want
to inflict a plague of chaos and bloodshed on
everyone else’s house.
The
execution of renowned Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr
is such a gratuitous barbaric killing, one is
left with the conclusion: the unadulterated
madness of the slaying betrays an altogether
pathological calculation aimed at inciting
mayhem in the region.
Saudi
Arabia is on such a losing streak over Syria,
Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere that its
autocratic rulers probably figure that they
don’t have much else to lose by going for broke
– and thus provoking a regional bloodbath.