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Year's End Analysis of Operations
in Syria
By Patrick Lang
December 29, 2015 "Information
Clearing House" -
"The direct intervention of
Russia into the Syrian Civil War
has
shifted battlefield momentum in favor of Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad since ISW
published its last Control of Terrain in Syria
Map in mid-September. Russia began its air
campaign in Syria on September 30, enabling the
regime to mount
renewed offensives against opposition-held
terrain throughout Western Syria. In
Aleppo Province, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) and associated proxy forces
launched a multipronged offensive on October 15
that
has seized large swaths of rebel-held terrain in
the southern countryside of Aleppo City,
threatening to sever the strategic M5 Highway.
Meanwhile, pro-regime forces relieved the
besieged Kuweires Airbase in Eastern Aleppo
Province on November 10 in
a key
symbolic victory that positioned the
regime to exploit future U.S.-led coalition
operations against ISIS along the Syrian-Turkish
border.
The regime also achieved tactical
gains against the opposition in Northeastern
Latakia Province and parts of Northern Hama
Province as well as the Eastern Ghouta suburbs
of Damascus.
The regime nonetheless suffers
from
chronic shortages of manpower that render
it unable to fully capitalize upon the expanded
support provided by Russia and Iran. Rebel
factions seized the town of Morek in Northern
Hama Province on November 5, securing a
strategic position directly north of Hama City.
Regime forces have also struggled to repel
repeated incursions by ISIS into Central Syria
despite the presence of Russian airpower. ISIS
temporarily severed the vulnerable regime ground
line of communication to Aleppo City in October,
disrupting ongoing operations in Southern Aleppo
Province. ISIS also engaged in back-and-forth
battles over the town of Mahin in the Eastern
Qalamoun Mountains over the past two months,
threatening to disrupt the M5 Highway between
Damascus and Homs City. ISIS currently retains
its position in Mahin despite the deployment of
Russian helicopter gunships to the region." ISW
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This will not be greeted as a
Christmas card by the Obama administration. The
only worrisome thing in this analysis from the
POV of the previous opinion of the course of the
war here at SST is the business of the supposed
"chronic shortage of manpower." If this
analysis is valid then I expect that we will see
the direct intervention of Russian ground forces
in the next months. the instances of gains by
the rebels that are cited were all passing
events that were quickly reversed. Russia
continues to focused on achieving a negotiating
position that excludes all jihadi groups from
the talks. I continue to think that in the near
future we will see a sudden collapse of rebel
activity in NW Syria. pl
Colonel W.
Patrick Lang is a retired senior officer of U.S.
Military Intelligence and U.S. Army Special Forces
(The Green Berets). He served in the Department of
Defense both as a serving officer and then as a
member of the Defense Senior Executive Service for
many years. He is a highly decorated veteran of
several of America’s overseas conflicts including
the war in Vietnam.
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/12/the-direct-intervention-of-russia-into-the-syrian-civil-war-has-shifted-battlefield-momentum-in-favor-of-syrian-president-bas.html |
