Week One Of The Russian Military Intervention In
SyriaBy The Saker
October 11, 2015 "Information
Clearing House" - The speed at which
the Russian military operation in Syria was conducted what a
big surprise for the US intelligence community (which I can
hardly blame as I was just as surprised myself). Make no mistake
here, the Russian force in Syria is a small one, at least
for the time being, and it does not even remotely resemble what the
rumors had predicted, but it is especially the manner in
which it is being used which is very original: as a type of “
force
multiplier ” for the Syrian military and a likely cover for the
Iranian one. This is a very elegant solution in which a small force
achieves a disproportionately big result. This is also a rather
dangerous strategy, because it leaves the force very vulnerable, but
one which, at least so far, Putin very successfully explained to the
Russian people.
According to the most recent poll
, 66% of Russian support the airstrikes in Syria while 19% oppose
them. Considering the risks involved, these are extremely good
numbers. Putin’s personal popularity, by the way, is still at a
phenomenal 85% (all these figures have an margin of error of 3.4%).
Still, these figures indicate to me that the potential for concern
and, possibly, disappointment is present. The big advantage that
Putin has over any US President is that Russians understand that
wars, all wars, have a cost, and they are therefore nowhere as
casualty-averse as the people in the USA or Europe. Still, while
combat footage taken from UAV is a good start, Putin will have to be
able to show something more tangible soon. Hence, probably, the
current Syrian army counter-offensive. Still, the current way of
triumphalism in Russia makes me nervous.
The reaction in the West, however, has been very
negative, especially after the Russian cruise missile attacks (which
mark the first time ever that the Russians have used their
non-nuclear but strategic forces in a show of force aimed less as
Daesh than at the USA).
On October 8th,
the US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter,
declared:
We have not and will not agree to cooperate
with Russia so long as they continue to pursue this misguided
strategy. We’ve seen increasingly unprofessional behavior from
Russian forces. They violated Turkish airspace, which as all of us
here made clear earlier this week, and strongly affirmed today here
in Brussels, is NATO airspace. They’ve shot cruise missiles from a
ship in the Caspian Sea without warning. They’ve come within just a
few miles of one of our unmanned aerial vehicles. They have
initiated a joint ground offensive with the Syrian regime,
shattering the facade that they’re there to fight ISIL.
This will have consequences for Russia itself,
which is rightfully fearful of attack upon Russia. And I also expect
that in coming days, the Russians will begin to suffer casualties in
Syria (Source:
http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/622454/press-conference-by-secretary-carter-at-nato-headquarters-brussels-belgium
)
On the next day, the Russian Defense Ministry
spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov replied by saying:
Representatives of the Russian Defense
Ministry, in their evaluation of the actions of the US military and
the various operations they are engaged worldwide, have never sunk
down to the level to publicly express the hope for the death of US
servicemen or, even less so, of ordinary Americans. Today’s
announcement Pentagon chief Ashton Carter, unfortunately clearly
illustrates the current level of political culture of some
representatives of the US government or, should I say, their level
of cynicism towards the rest of the world. I am sure that no US
general would ever have allowed himself to express such feelings. (Source:
http://tass.ru/politika/2331242 )
Does that not remind you of something? Does that
not sound like a repeat of the threat made by Saudi Arabia’s
intelligence chief Prince
Bandar bin Sultan ‘s
threat to unleash ‘Chechen’ terror attacks against Russia? At
the very least, this is, yet again, a sign that the US controls or,
rather, thinks that it controls the Wahabi crazies and can unleash
them against any opponent.
Typically, there are two basic ways the West
handles any Russian military operation: they are either presented as
mass murder and butchery or as gross, primitive and ineffective.
CNN chose the second option and reported that “A number of
cruise missiles launched from a Russian ship and aimed at targets in
Syria have crashed in Iran, two U.S. officials told CNN Thursday”.
Both Russia and Iran immediately denied that, as for the State
Department and the Pentagon, they have refused to confirm or deny
these reports.
Maria Zakarova, the spokeswoman for the Russian
Foreign Ministry reacted with disgust to these reports
on her FB account and wrote : “I have read the CNN reports
claiming that “Russian cruise missiles fell in Iran.” I wonder, do
they write that out of impotent anger, or what? As for the constant
references to “sources” they remind of the channeling of water from
the sewer”.
Clearly, the Russians are rather disgusted with
the rather pathetic US reactions to the Russian military operation.
As for US officials, they appear rather clueless as to what do do
next.
However, these appearances can be deceiving: this
“game” is very far from being over.
As I have written
in a recent column , the notion that Russia has established a
no-fly zone over Syria is plain false: four SU-30MS, even if backed
by six SU-34s are not enough to establish any kind of no-fly zone.
The real mission of these SU-30MSs is to protect the Russian Air
Force from any overzealous Turkish or Israeli fighter, not to
establish a no-fly zone. In fact, according to the commander of the
USAF operation over Syria, the US flies many more sorties than the
Russians. What he does not add is that most of these US sorties do
not include the release of weapons whereas all the Russian ones do.
But, really, this is comparing apples and oranges. The USAF can fly
as many sorties as it wants, only the Russian aircraft are operating
in close coordination with Syrian and Iranian ground forces.
What worries me most is that people on both sides
like to engage in cheap bravado and say things like “the
Americans/Russians would never dare to attack a Russian/American
aircraft”. This is a very dangerous way of thinking about what is
going on because it ignores all the historical evidence for
decision-makers taking very dumb decisions to try to avoid appearing
humiliated by the other side (Ehud Olmert in 2006, immediately comes
to mind). The fact that Obama and the USA look totally out-smarted
is nice, of course, but also potentially very dangerous.
The good news is that, at least for the time
being, neither Russia nor the USA are directly threatening each
other, at least not on a military level. The USAF apparently has
decided on a 20miles “avoidance radius” and while the Russians have
not made any statements about this, I am pretty sure that they also
go out of their way not to interfere with the Americans, much less
so threaten them directly. Still, this situation is inherently
dangerous.
Since this is a real combat zone and not just some
peacetime patrol area, Russian and American aircraft have to use
radar modes which are normally associated with a hostile intent: not
just scan the skies for any potential enemy, but also actively track
any detected aircraft. This is a very delicate situation because
once a radar has acquired an aircraft and is actively tracking it
all the pilot has to do to attack is press one button. For the pilot
in the aircraft being tracked, this is similar to having a gun
pointed at you – it makes you very nervous. To make things worse,
modern aircraft can actually engage each other without using these
radar modes and they can try to hide their radar signals, but that
only adds to the tension. It is precisely because the US and Russia
are two nuclear powers that it is crucial that neither side count on
the other one to “blink first” or play any game of chicken. The
politicians can indulge in this kind of nonsense, but I hope that
the generals on both sides will do everything in their power to
avoid any such situation. Right now, the situation appears to be
under control, but it could get worse very fast. Hopefully, the
Pentagon and the Russian General Staff will come to an
“de-conflicting” agreement soon.
There are numerous reports that Iran is preparing
a major intervention in Syria. These reports come from many sources
and I consider them credible simply because there is no way that the
very limited Russian intervention can really change the time of the
war, at least not by itself. Yes, I do insist that the Russian
intervention is a very limited one. 12 SU-24M, 12 SU-25SM, 6 SU-34
and 4 SU-30SM are not a big force, not even backed by helicopters
and cruise missiles. Yes, the Russian force has been very effective
to relieve the pressure on the northwestern front and to allow for a
Syrian Army counter-offensive, but that will not, by itself, end the
war. For one thing, should things get really ugly, the Daesh crazies
can simply repeat what they have already done in the past: cross the
border into Turkey, Jordan and Iraq. Furthermore, you cannot hold
any ground from the air. For that, “boots on the ground” are needed
and Russian boots are not coming – Putin has unambiguously stated
that (although he did leave a small door open for a future change of
strategy by saying that a ground intervention was not in the
“current plans”). Regardless, anything short of a minor or very
short intervention would be fantastically hard to sell in Russia and
I therefore still don’t believe that it will happen. My bet is on
the Iranians. Well, when I say “Iranians” I mean Iranians and their
allies, including Hezbollah, but not necessarily in Iranian
uniforms.
Chances are, the Iranians and the Syrians will
want to keep the magnitude of the Iranian involvement as hidden from
view as possible. But, of course, they won’t be able to fool the
USA, Turkey or Israel for very long, at least not if a large Iranian
force is involved.
So the big question for me is this: what will the
USA do if (when?) Iran intervenes in Syria?
Chances are that the Iraqis will request the
Russian help to defeat Daesh exactly at the moment when the Iranians
make their move. If the Russians agree, and it looks like they
might, the Russian Air Force will, in fact, be providing air cover
for the Iranian forces moving across Iraq towards Syria. My guess is
that the Russians will try to get some UNSC Resolution to allow an
international intervention in Syria or that, failing that, they will
try to get some kind of deal with the USA. But that is going to be
awfully hard, as they Neocons will go ballistic if the Iranians
actually make a big move into Syria.
Right now the Russian Air Force does not have the
resources needed to support an Iranian move into Syria, and that
might be the reason for a
reappearance of the rumor about “six MiG-31s” going to Syria . I
personally have seen no evidence for that, at least not form any
halfway dencent source, but if that does really happen, then this
will become a major game-changer because one thing is certain:
MiG-31s will never be used against Daesh or even a few isolated
Turkish or Israeli fighters; if the MiG-31s ever really show up in
the Syrian skies, their goal will be to keep control of the Syrian
airspace and that implies a direct and credible threat against the
US and its allies. The same goes for the actual deployment of
S-300s. Thank God,we are not there yet. But unless the Syrian Army
manages an extremely successful offensive against Daesh, a large
Iranian intervention will become very likely. Then things will
become very dangerous indeed.
In the meantime, NATO is still busy making big
statement about being “
ready to defend Turkey ” while McCain declares that the US and
Russia are engaged in a “
proxy war ”. We ought to be grateful for such loud emissions of
hot hair because, hopefully, as long as the western leaders feel
that their empty talk makes them look credible, they will not be
tempted to do something truly stupid and dangerous.
These are definitely dangerous times.
This column was originally written for the Unz
Review:
http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-one-of-the-russian-military-intervention-in-syria/