A New Image For An Old Al Qaeda
By Felix Imonti
October 07, 2015 "Information
Clearing House" - Over three decades,
Al-Qaeda has undergone a number of changes. Faced by an alliance of
powerful governments and the Islamic State rival, a new change is
required. What it will be, we do not know with certainty, but we
will find out soon.
In a 55-minute video released at the beginning of
September 2014, the leader of Al-Qaeda announced that the movement
was expanding into India. Emir Ayman al-Zawahiri assured Muslims in
Burma, Bangladesh, in the Indian states of Assam and Gujarat, and in
Kashmir, “that your brothers” in the militant organization “did not
forget you and that they are doing what they can to rescue you.”
Zawahiri explained that creating the Qaeda
al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent had taken more than two years to
complete. It is Al-Qaeda’s first Asian branch.
The declaration came two months after Baghdadi in
his black cloak of Caliph Ibrahim had proclaimed his hegemony over
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the one hundred and seventy-five million
Moslems of India. During the fifty-five minute video, Ayman al-Zawahiri
said nothing about the rival Islamic State. Instead, Ayman al-Zawahiri
repeated his allegiance to Mullah Omar, the leader of the Afghan
Taliban. At the time, he appears not to have known that Mullah Omar
had died nearly a year and a half earlier.
After Ayman al-Zawahiri released the September
2014 video and disappeared for the next eleven months, the rumor
mill produced stories that he had died, or had been removed in a
coop, or was planning some spectacular event. The failure of the
emir to praise the Yemeni branch of Al-Qaeda for the successful
attack in January upon the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo was
unusual. Failing to eulogize the death by an American drone in June
of Nasir al-Wuhayshi, the leader of the Yemeni branch and his chosen
successor left many members worried because the movement was under
attack by the Islamic State in Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, and Syria.
The return in August of the emir in a ten minute
video did not explain the reason for his absence. He pledged his
allegiance to the new leader of the Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor
and eulogized the late Mullah Omar. The surprise that might explain
the reason for the disappearance was the disclosure that Al-Qaeda
was following the Taliban back to Helmand Province in Afghanistan
from where it had fled fourteen years ago.
One other surprise was the introduction of Hamza
bin Osama bin Laden in a ten minute video that was recorded in May
and released on August 19th. The twenty-four year old son of Osama
Bin Laden praised the martyrs to the cause, urged more attacks upon
the United States, and pledged his allegiance to Mullah Omar.
His introduction comes at the time that Al-Qaeda
is undergoing a transformation.
A recording by Ayman al-Zawahiri released this September and
believed to have been made around February reflects the shift in
Al-Qaeda’s strategy, “Despite the big mistakes [of IS], if I were in
Iraq or Syria I would co-operate with them in killing the crusaders
and secularists and Shi’ites even though I don’t recognise the
legitimacy of their state, because the matter is bigger than that.”
Abdullah bin Mohammed, who is an Al Qaeda theorist, is proposing
that the strategy of recent years has been a failure and that change
is necessary.
Jabhat al-Nusra’s second-in-command Abu Mariah
al-Qahtani of the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda voiced his support for
the strategy that Abdullah bin Mohammed calls Political Guerrilla
War. He opposes confronting the far more powerful states that can
overwhelm the movement or the creation of caliphates that are easy
targets for superior military forces.
Political Guerrilla War advocates the merging of
the Al-Qaeda movement within a coalition of Jihad organizations.
Abdullah bin Mohammed methods appear to have been put into operation
in Syria.
Jabhat al-Nusra that is strongest in Iblit
Province had joined with a number of other Jihadist groups to form
the Army of Conquest. The united force captured Abu al-Duhur airbase
after a two year long battle for the last remaining government
military base in Iblit Province.
The formation of the Army of Conquest has received
approval from the Turkish, Saudi Arabian, and Qatari sponsors who
are providing financing and fresh supplies of weapons. There,
however, are reservations by other Jihadist groups about including
Al-Nusra in an alliance.
Responding to the doubts, Ayman al-Zawahiri
earlier this year outlined in a secret communication the strategy
for the Syrian branch. A strategic shift that is causing a schism
within the organization is focusing upon Syria and abandoning the
traditional objective of targeting the far off enemy, meaning the
U.S.
Ayman al-Zawahiri instructed the leadership of
Jabhat al-Nusra’s to adapt to the local cultural and political
environment by coordinating more closely with other Islamic groups.
The movement is to promote a Sharia legal system and to strengthen
its base within Syria.
Directing Jabhat al-Nusra to abandon plans to
attack the far off enemy will have little effect upon the Syrian
based branch, because it has been the Yemen franchise of Al-Qaeda
that was responsible for the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris and
attempts to send bombs to the United States. There is no evidence
that the shift in policy to localize operations has been extended to
AQAP in Yemen. Going by the first public statement of Qassim al-Raymi
released in early July, the new military leader of AQAP is calling
for more attacks upon the United States.
The real change for AQAP has come as a result of
the Saudi Arabian invasion of Yemen in March. So far, the Saudis are
ignoring AQAP and the Al-Qaeda branch is avoiding contact with the
Saudis.
This is a time of consolidation for AQAP.
The movement has taken control of the southeastern
province of Hadramawt that is the ancestral territory of the
Al-Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden. The Al-Qaeda militants are
enforcing Islamic sharia law throughout the province.
About the time that Saudi Arabia launched its
invasion of Yemen, Iran released in a prisoner exchange with AQAP
five of the organization’s key leaders. The loss of so many of the
Yemen branch of Al-Qaeda’s key personnel to drone attacks makes the
return of these five a needed infusion of vital management; and
their return makes AQAP more dangerous.
Saif Al-Adl is viewed to be the most dangerous of
the five. The former colonel in the Egyptian army has a five million
dollar bounty on his head. He is believed to have been involved in
the 1998 bombings of U.S. Embassies in East Africa.
Abu Mohamed al-Misri was involved in much of the
Al-Qaeda operational planning before the attack upon the World Trade
Center in 2001. Abul Qassam was a colleague of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
who was involved in the founding of the organization that has become
the Islamic State. There are also Sari Shibab and Abdul Khayr al-Misri.
So long as the Saudi Arabian military coalition is
occupied with fighting the Houthis Al-Qaeda in Yemen has a license
to continue consolidating its position. Eventually, it is more
likely that it will be the Saudis and their allies who will be
forced to abandon the battlefield. That will leave the Houthis,
Al-Qaeda, and the growing Islamic State to battle each other.
What remains an open question is why Hamza bin
Osama bin Laden was placed center stage at this time. The simple
answer may be that he can provide the organization the psychological
link to the man who many consider to be the founder of the Jihadist
movements, the man called the Lion of Jihad; but is the son the
Lion’s cub?
Osama Bin Laden made his reputation by performing
a number of spectacular terrorist feats. If Hamza bin Osama bin
Laden is to be accepted as a leader capable of rivaling the caliph
of the Islamic State, he too must make is mark by some grand blow
against the enemy. Al-Qaeda has spoken about attacks against vital
Western symbols, such as Big Ben in London or the Eiffel Tower in
Paris, or the Vatican in Rome. There are many other potential
targets; and we should not be surprised if Al-Qaeda presents the son
as the second coming of the father.
Felix Imonti is the retired director of a private
equity firm and currently lives in Japan. He has recently published
a history book, Violent Justice, and currently writes articles in
the fields of economics and international politics. You can reach
Felix at:
feliximonti@gmail.com
