There is now a worry among some thoughtful
Conservatives that a clear Corbyn win on the first ballot
will mean that the Government will be facing a significant
level of opposition backed by a substantial sector of public
opinion, rather than a Labour Party not desperately
different from the Government on many issues. The
neo-liberal path of progress may even be at risk.
This change in attitude is reflected in the
renewed vigour with which sections of the press are
highlighting Corbyn’s support for radical causes, the most
significant of these being international rather than
national. This may be surprising, considering his strong
opposition to domestic austerity, but the fact is that
Conservative analysts are only too well aware that, as the
experience in Scotland showed, concentrating on the
inevitability of austerity policies is already beginning to
lose credibility.
Better, therefore, to look at his support
for potentially unpopular movements overseas, starting with
Hamas and Hezbollah but taking in his stance on Trident,
Nato, and defence in general.
This is certainly the current pattern,
although it is not done in the expectation that it will
affect his electoral chances within the Labour Party, since
it is now assumed that he will win comfortably. Instead, it
is part of a process that will develop and intensify in the
coming months, but it does raise the question of whether
Corbyn is as vulnerable as so many pundits suggest.
For a start, Corbyn actually has a record
of being ahead of most political thinking on a number of
issues, including the Iraq war and the use of torture. On
the “talking to Sinn Fein” issue, it may seem controversial,
but at the time he was saying what the government of the day
was already doing behind the scenes. Similarly, Hamas may be
considered a terrorist group but the criticism of Israel’s
recent Gaza war goes well beyond the traditional left.
On wider issues, Trident, Nato and
conflicts in the Middle East all come to mind, starting with
the assumption that opposing Trident renewal is a vote
loser. In reality that may have been the case a few years
ago, but a new generation has emerged and it is far from
clear that it is any longer a key issue. The idea that
international standing depends on being able to kill five
million people in 45 minutes has much less traction than it
did, and the huge cost of a Trident replacement, at a time
of supposed austerity, is another factor that will be easy
for Corbyn to highlight.
Nato is an issue where public opinion may
not be strong either way, but where withdrawal would
actually be less popular than ditching Trident. But Corbyn
has made it clear that such an issue would be a matter for
discussion and debate, rather than early imposition of
policy across the party. It is more likely that retaining
membership will prevail, but with a demand for a fundamental
rethinking of Nato’s functions, especially after the
disastrous decade-long involvement in Afghanistan.
On the Middle East, one would expect that
the links with Hamas and Hezbollah would be worthy of
governmental emphasis, but the mood in the country is
actually uncertain and unpredictable. There is now a
widespread view, which is developing into a consensus, that
the Iraq war was wrong in almost every sense and this
combines with a deep suspicion of further involvements of UK
forces in Iraq beyond the current air war.
Over all this, though, is the much bigger
issue of whether Corbyn is behind or ahead of the times, and
this may well decide his future as leader of the Labour
Party.