9 Myths About The Greek Crisis
An insider’s take on the conventional wisdom to ignore.
By James K. Galbraith
July 04, 2015 "Information
Clearing House"
- "Politico"
- The citizens of Greece face a referendum Sunday that could decide the
survival of their elected government and the fate of the country in the Eurozone
and Europe. Narrowly, they’re voting on whether to accept or reject the terms
dictated by their creditors last week. But what's really at stake? The answers
aren’t what you’d think.I have had a close view of the
process, both from the US and Athens, after working for the past four years with
Yanis Varoufakis, now the Greek finance minister. I've come to realize that
there are many myths in circulation about this crisis; here are nine that
Americans should see through.
1. The referendum is about the Euro. As
soon as Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announced the referendum, François
Hollande, David Cameron, Matteo Renzi, and the German Deputy Chancellor Sigmar
Gabriel told the Greeks that a “no” vote would amount to Greece leaving the
Euro. Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, went further:
he said “no” means leaving the European Union. In fact the Greek
government has stated many times that – yes or no – it is irrevocably committed
to the Union and the Euro. And legally, according to the treaties, Greece cannot
be expelled from either.
2. The IMF has been flexible. IMF
Managing Director Christine Lagarde claims that her institution has shown
“flexibility” in negotiations with the Greeks. In fact, the IMF has conceded
almost nothing over four months: not on taxes, pensions, wages, collective
bargaining or the amount of Greece’s debt. Greek chief negotiator Euclid
Tsakalatos circulated a briefing on the breakdown that gives details, and
concludes: “So what does the Greek government think of the proposed flexibility
of the Institutions? It would be a great idea.”
3. The creditors have been generous. Angela
Merkel has called the terms offered by the creditors “very generous” to Greece.
But in fact the creditors have continued to insist on a crushing austerity
program, predicated on a target for a budget surplus that Greece cannot possibly
meet, and on the continuation of draconian policies that have already cost the
Greeks more than a quarter of their income and plunged the country into
depression. Debt restructuring, which is obviously necessary, has also been
refused.
4. The European Central Bank has protected Greek financial
stability. A central bank is supposed to protect the
financial stability of solvent banks. But from early February, the ECB cut off
direct financing of Greek banks, instead drip-feeding them expensive liquidity
on special “emergency” terms. This promoted a slow run on the banks and
paralyzed economic activity. When the negotiations broke down, the ECB capped
the assistance, prompting a fast bank run and giving them an excuse to impose
capital controls and effectively shut them down.
5. The Greek government is imperiling its American
alliance. This is a particular worry of some US
conservatives, who see a leftist government in power and assume it is
pro-Russian and anti-NATO. It is true that the Greek Left has historic
complaints against the US, notably for CIA support of the military junta that
ruled from 1967 to 1974. But in fact, attitudes on the Greek Left have changed,
thanks partly to experience with the Germans. This government is pro-American
and firmly a member of NATO.
6. Alexis Tsipras called the IMF a “criminal”
organization. That was, charitably, an overheated
headline slapped by Bloomberg onto a very moderate parliamentary speech, which
correctly pointed out that the IMF's economic and debt projections for Greece
back when austerity was first imposed in 2010 were catastrophically optimistic.
In fact, every letter from Tsipras to the creditors has been couched in formal
and respectful language.
7. The Greek government is playing games. Because
Finance Minister Varoufakis knows the economic field of game theory, lazy
pundits have for months opined that he is playing “chicken” or “poker” or some
other game. In Heraklion two weeks ago, Varoufakis denied this as he has done
many times: “We're not bluffing. We're not even meta-bluffing.” Indeed
there are no hidden cards. The Greek red lines – the points of principle on
which this government refuses to budge – on labor rights, against cuts in
poverty-level pensions and fire-sale privatizations – have been in plain view
from day one.
8. A “Yes” vote will save Europe. “Yes” would mean
more austerity and social destruction, and the government that implements it
cannot last long. The one that follows will not be led by Alexis Tsipras and
Yanis Varoufakis – the last leaders, perhaps anywhere in Europe, of an authentic
pro-European left. If they fall, the anti-Europeans will come next, possibly
including ultra-right elements such as the Greek Nazi party, Golden Dawn. And
the anti-European fire will spread, to France, the UK and Spain, among other
countries.
9. A “No” vote will destroy Europe. In fact, only the
“No” can save Greece – and by saving Greece, save Europe. A “No” means that the
Greek people will not bend, that their government will not fall, and that the
creditors need, finally, to come to terms with the failures of European policy
so far. Negotiations can then resume – or more correctly, proper negotiations
can then start. This is vital, if Europe is to be saved. If there ever was a
moment when the United States should speak for decency and democratic values –
as well as our national interest – it is right now.
James K. Galbraith holds the Lloyd
M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in Government/Business Relations at the Lyndon B. Johnson
School of Public Affairs, the University of Texas at Austin. He has followed the
Greek drama in Greece, Brussels, Paris and Berlin since January. His most recent
book is “The End of Normal: The Great Crisis and the Future of Growth.”