Nuke Deal Inches Ahead as US-Iran Play Information War
By Pepe Escobar
June 30, 2015 "Information
Clearing House"
- "Asia
Times" -
VIENNA – So today is not D-Day. No landing in
post-Wall of Mistrust territory. A nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 won’t
be clinched today – for a number of very complex reasons, way beyond the vicious
media information war; not least finding the absolute, exact wording in every
line of 85 pages of text.It still amounts, for all the
bluster and the dramatic turnarounds, to a question of trust. Rather, breaching
the 36-year-plus Wall of Mistrust between Washington and Tehran.
There are breakthroughs, of course. On the status of the Fordo
research site, for instance, for the first time both sides reached an agreement.
Compare it to the cosmic gap — exacerbated by the American wordplay — on the
gradual lifting of sanctions.
This is at the heart of the Viennese diplomatic waltz; what
happens after the adoption of an agreement – what some negotiators define as “operationalization.”
Only after the US Congress reviews the deal, “iron-clad guarantees” would be
provided that sanctions will be lifted. That’s the much-lauded but still hazy
“phase three” – when the whole US, EU and UN infrastructure of sanctions is
supposed to vanish.
There’s the rub — as a top Iranian official told Asia Times:
The main issue for Tehran is how to have complete assurance this complex process
will be fully implemented.
What Tehran wants – according to negotiation insiders – is to
“carry a parallel process”; while Iran fulfills all its nuclear restriction
commitments, the US, especially, works to dismantle the “institutionalized
process of sanctions.” It’s no secret Washington controls the whole framework.
And the secret for a successful deal is that all these details should be
explicit in writing.
Negotiation insiders tell Asia Times that on a technical
level, in a maximum of three months all the necessary commitments will be
fulfilled. Even something like changing the reactor in Arak, which is very
costly.
So where’s the big deal? Once again, it amounts to (mis)trust.
Watch the media centrifuges
The nuclear negotiations operate at three different levels –
two of them technical, below the Foreign Ministry level. If only we had a
neo-Wittgenstein to deconstruct them.
This is all about the US and Iran. The other players are
bystanders at most.
Picture Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif occasionally yelling at
US Secretary of State John Kerry in the heat of the moment. Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Khamenei actually stepped into the fray a while ago, warning Zarif to
cool it.
The Russians are not as pro-active as they could; it’s as if
they’re betting on a winning Eurasian integration hand, deal or no deal. The
Chinese say absolutely nothing; a starring passive role. The Germans are quite
rational – even equidistant. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius is just a
poseur; but his dramatic posturing is far from qualifying him as a
neo-Talleyrand. He’s incapable of adding anything of substance.
And then there are the famous red lines. Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Khamenei’s were always very clear – even to US negotiators. And these
are not his own personal lines; they represent an Iranian consensus.
What’s certain is that after full immersion in the
technicalities of the Viennese drama, what happens according to US corporate
media has nothing to do with the real deal at the Palais Coburg.
Involving the US Senate is a setback to Lausanne, as Iranian
diplomats see it; “Imagine if it was it the other way around, with everything
waiting for the word of the Iranian Parliament. Western media, instead of
silent, would be furious.” Spinning the Lausanne fact sheet “created a lot of
confusion about Iran’s position.”
So the Americans throwing a spanner in the works, in this
case, means the US Senate rendering obsolete any notion of a deadline such as
today’s.
Oblivious to reality, media centrifuges keep spinning
non-stop. Take the US demand — three months ago — to interview 18 scientists and
scholars. It was never agreed at the negotiating table in the first place. So
even if that disappeared, it was later resurrected to wager a media war.
Other problematic details are merely suppressed. The
additional protocol to the agreement has serious parameters. So, for instance,
the famous 5c paragraph states that it’s up to the country that is being
inspected to decide whether to allow access or not. The IAEA cannot pry around
computers at will, for instance. It’s only entitled to perform environmental
sampling.
The sanctions on the Freudian divan
Iran’s diplomats are absolutely adamant on changing the
“culture of sanctions” – and the massive, concurrent psychological effect that
conditions any company, even in Asia, that decides to do business with Iran.
Iranian negotiators advance this might take at least six months of hard work.
And they are ready to admit the issue at least is still on the table with the
Americans.
There are so many mind-boggling questions to tackle in detail.
No one knows yet, for instance, about Iranian liquidity spread across different
banks. Iran has arguably $110 billion frozen around the world. Rumors that these
funds could be diverted “to proxies” by Tehran are met with derision even by
European diplomats.
So what if there’s no deal? Zarif already said, on the record,
it won’t be the end of the world. That’s because Iran — and Iranians — worked
steadily on building a “resistance economy” (and no wonder the Supreme Leader
theorized about “heroic flexibility”). As an Iranian official tells it, “the
U.S. knows very well that sanctions did not affect Iran. The architects of the
Iranian sanctions were sure that Iran would collapse by the end of 2012 at the
most. And we would be consumed by social unrest.”
None of that happened, of course. So we’re back to the media
centrifuges madly spinning. Here’s a classic, out on the eve of D-Day.
AFP put out a story this Monday titled,
US says system reached to allow
American access to suspected Iran sites. Iranian
officials describe it as “deliberate misinformation to influence the negotiation
table.” They admit it might be, at best, “an American idea.” But this was never
negotiated, because it bears no relation with the nuclear issue.
No wonder AFP got a “knock on the door” from the French
Foreign Ministry only minutes after the story was out, as Asia Times has
learned. In less than an hour, the language was drastically changed, as in
“global powers negotiating with Iran have put forward proposals…” By then, the
initial – false – narrative had gone viral in every major newspaper around the
world.
On June 22, also in an AFP piece, the grandstanding Fabius had
outlined his three-pointer for a deal; a “robust accord … that includes limiting
Iranian capacity of research and development”; a “verification regime including,
if necessary, military sites”; and allowing the “automatic return of sanctions
in case of Iranian violations.”
The additional protocol does not contemplate any inspection of
military sites. The record shows that Iran, twice, and voluntarily, provided
access to the military site of Parchin in 2005. And all questions about the site
were resolved by the IAEA.
No wonder Iranian officials now harbor “serious doubts about
the intentions of those who are pushing for access to defense installations.”
There are no precedents, except the run-up towards the war on Iraq. In that
case, the US government totally despised the IAEA, because the decision to
launch Shock and Awe had already been made.
Political will, anybody?
This is just a sample of what Iranian negotiators qualify as
“a lot of differences” preventing a deal. Every insider in Vienna knows that the
US government spins, “Iran needs the deal” while we, the United States, “want
the deal.” Iranian officials stress that Lausanne provided the necessary
infrastructure for peaceful uranium enrichment, even with severe restrictions.
But the US government badly wants Iran to have only “symbolic” enrichment.
Thus the formulation by an Iranian diplomat; “The Americans
are showing buyer’s remorse after the Lausanne talks.” And the stonewalling. And
the media centrifuges spinning like mad. And the non-stop reinforcement of the
Wall of Mistrust – an infernal mechanism with its own non-Wittgenstein logic all
geared up to setting up Iran as the fall guy in case of a potential, monumental
failure.
So does the Obama administration really want a fair deal –
their only foreign policy success? Or is this just yet another elaborate case of
“who’s in charge” – a hyperpower avid to prove its unmatched “credibility”?
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