Happiness is Having Own Submarine-launched
Ballistic Missile
By Eric S. Margolis
May 16, 2015 "Information
Clearing House" -
This week, North Korea’s dynastic leader,
Kim Jong-un, was beaming from ear to ear as a Pukgeukseong-1 missile shot out of
the water, apparently launched by a new “Sinpo” class strategic submarine. For
Kim, Christmas arrived early.
The United States and South Korea publicly sneered at the missiles launch
calling it a fake, a dummy, trick photography or a re-tread old Soviet SSN-6
missile. Washington has always underestimated North Korea ever since the Korean
War of the 1950’s. South Korean intelligence has an entire department that
routinely spreads phony stories about the North, like the canard that Kim had
his uncle eaten by wild dogs.
But behind the scenes, there was real worry in both Washington and Seoul, and
for a good reason. Even a few North Korean submarines equipped with
underwater-launched ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads could pose a grave
strategic challenge to the US, South Korea and Japan.
North Korea now has an estimated 10-20 small nuclear devices according to
foreign intelligence estimates. Some of them are believed to be fitted to the
North’s medium-ranged Rodong missiles pointed at South Korea, Japan and the
major US Pacific base on Guam.
Pyongyang has been trying to develop a miniaturized nuclear warhead to fit atop
its longer-ranged Taepong and a new ICBM under development. Recent tests of the
extended-range missiles have been failures. But the North Koreans are quick
learners and determined. However, they lag far behind in developing solid-fuel
missiles, relying instead on cumbersome, vulnerable liquid-fueled missiles.
The US has the technological capability to intercept long-ranged ICBM fired from
North Korea, and ample early warning time. However, it’s hard to imagine why the
North would use its nuclear arms except in last-ditch self defense as the US
would obliterate the North with retaliatory salvos of nuclear strikes. US forces
in South Korea, Japan (Okinawa), Guam and at sea have stocks of tactical nuclear
weapons.
But a North Korean sub lurking off the US East Coast could launch against
Washington and New York with only minutes of early warning. American
anti-submarines systems, like the upgraded SOSUS underwater hydrophone system or
towed hydrophones, would likely pick up the North Korean subs, which are
believed to be noisy, but there’s always a chance one or more could slip
through, or launch out of range of underwater defenses.
South Korea has invested a great deal of money and effort into building what it
calls a “kill chain” designed to attack North Korea’s short and medium-ranged
missiles before they can be launched or during their initial boost phase. This
system is based on drones, aircraft, radars and satellite linked to a central
command. North Korean submarines could outflank South Korea’s strategic defense
system.
But North Korea is not about to start a nuclear war of which it would be the
principal victim. Pyongyang’s nukes have always had the primary role of warding
off a US-South Korean invasion – an operation that the two allies practice every
fall, producing violent tantrums from Pyongyang.
Kim Jong-un knows Iraq and Libya would not have been invaded if they had
possessed nuclear weapons. Syria may be next on the western hit list. The Kim
dynasty’s days would be numbered without its nuclear arsenal.
But the Kim monarchy is also beset by growing internal tensions. The
30-something Kim has been wrestling with his father’s old guard, a cadre of
reactionary senior generals, party officials and influential relatives jealous
of their power and wealth. The Swiss-educated Kim wants to bring change to
stultified North Korea.
We must be cautious of news about North Korea, which is often outrageous
nonsense that is dutifully parroted by western media without many questions. But
there’s also no doubt that the Kim regime has abrupt, spasms of violence that
suggest the young leader is both unsure of himself and under siege.
Last week’s outrage du jour concerned North Korea’s new defense minister, Hyon
Yong Choi, who was arrested and then reportedly executed by one or more heavy,
12.7mm machine guns. His offense, it seems, was showing insufficient respect to
Kim and even dozing off during a speech being given by the leader – a very
sinister Stalinist touch to a traditional Korean flair.
Choi’s explosive execution comes after Kim had his uncle, Jang Song Thaek killed
and eaten by wild dogs, according to a lurid fable spread by South Korean
intelligences. There are so many wild stories spread about North Korea it’s hard
to separate fact from fiction.
Young dictator Kim’s ambitions are upsetting the north Asian applecart. Japan
feels naked before its Korean and Chinese foes and will feel pressure to rearm
and break away from American tutelage. South Korea has the same problem,
compounded by growing numbers of young South Koreans who believe Kim’s claims
that the North, not the South, is the authentic Korea. Add the Chinese who are
nervous about the unpredictable Kim and even Israel which fears he will arm
their Arab and Iranian enemies.
No wonder the respect and attention-craving Kim Jong-un looks so happy.
Eric S. Margolis is an award-winning, internationally syndicated columnist. His
articles have appeared in the New York Times, the International Herald Tribune
the Los Angeles Times, Times of London, the Gulf Times, the Khaleej Times,
Nation – Pakistan, Hurriyet, – Turkey, Sun Times Malaysia and other news sites
in Asia.
© 2015 Eric Margolis