By Dmitry Orlov
May 12, 2015 "Information Clearing House" - Last Saturday, a massive Victory Parade was held in Moscow commemorating the 70-year anniversary of the surrender of Nazi Germany to the Red Army and the erection of the Soviet flag atop the Reichstag in Berlin. There were a few unusual aspects to this parade, which I would like to point out, because they conflict with the western official propaganda narrative. First, it wasn't just Russian troops that marched in the parade: the troops of 10 other nations took part in it, including the Chinese honor guard and a contingent of Grenadiers from India. Dignitaries from these nations were present in the stands, and the Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife were seated next to President Vladimir Putin, who, in his speech at the start of the parade, warned against attempts to create a unipolar world—sharp words aimed squarely at the United States and its western allies. Second, a look at the military hardware that rolled through Red Square or flew over it would indicate that, short of an outright nuclear mutual self-annihilation, there isn't much that the US military could throw at Russia that Russia couldn't neutralize.
It would appear that American attempts to isolate Russia have resulted in
the exact opposite: if 10 nations, among them the world's largest economy,
comprising some 3 billion people, are willing to set aside their differences
and stand shoulder to shoulder with the Russians to counter American
attempts at global dominance, then clearly the American plan isn't going to
work at all. Western media focused on the fact that western leaders declined
to attend the celebration, either in a fit of pique or because so ordered by
the Obama administration, but this only highlights their combined
irrelevance, be it in defeating Hitler, or in commemorating his defeat 70
years later. Nevertheless, in his speech Putin specifically thanked the
French, the British and the Americans for their contribution to the war
effort. I am sorry that he left out the Belgians, who had been so helpful at
Dunkirk.
One small detail about the parade is nevertheless stunning: Defense Minister
Sergei Shoigu, a Tuvan Buddhist and one of the most respected Russian
leaders, who presided over the Emergencies Ministry prior to becoming the
Defense Minister, did something none of his predecessors ever did: at the
beginning of the ceremony, he made the sign of the cross, in the Russian
Orthodox manner. This simple gesture transformed the parade from a display
of military pomp to a sacred ritual. Then followed the slow march with two
flags side by side: the Russian flag, and the Soviet flag that flew on top
of the Reichstag in Berlin on Victory Day 70 years ago. The march was
accompanied by a popular World War II song? Its title? “The Sacred War.” The
message is clear: the Russian military, and the Russian people, have put
themselves in God's hands, to do God's work, to once again sacrifice
themselves to save the world from the ravages of an evil empire.
If you try to dismiss any of this as Russian state propaganda, then here is
something else you should be aware of. Did you hear of the spontaneously
organized procession in which, after the official parade, half a million
people marched through Moscow with portraits of their relatives who died in
World War II? The event was called “The Eternal Regiment” (Бессмертный полк).
Similar processions took place in many cities throughout Russia, and the
total number of participants is estimated at around 4 million. Western press
either panned it or billed it as an attempt by Putin to whip up anti-western
sentiment. Now that sort of “press coverage,” my fellow space travelers, is
pure propaganda! No, it was an enthusiastic, spontaneous outpouring of
genuine public sentiment. If you think about it just a tiny bit, nothing on
this scale could be contrived artificially, and the thought that millions of
people would prostitute their dead for propaganda purposes is, frankly, both
cynical and insulting.
Instead of collapsing quietly, the US has
decided to pick a fight with Russia. It appears to have already lost the
fight, but a question remains: How many more countries will the US manage to
destroy before the reality of its inevitable defeat and disintegration
finally catches up with it?
As Putin said last summer when speaking at the Seliger youth forum, “I get
the feeling that no matter what the Americans touch, they end up with Libya
or Iraq.” Indeed, the Americans have been on a tear, destroying one country
after another. Iraq has been dismembered, Libya is a no-go zone, Syria is a
humanitarian disaster, Egypt is a military dictatorship executing a program
of mass imprisonment. The latest fiasco is Yemen, where the pro-American
government was recently overthrown, and the American nationals who found
themselves trapped there had to wait for the Russians and the Chinese to
extract them and send them home. But it was the previous American foreign
policy fiasco, in the Ukraine, which prompted the Russians, along with the
Chinese, to signal that the US has taken a step too far, and that all
further steps will result in automatic escalation.
The Russian plan, along with China, India, and much of the rest of the
world, is to prepare for war with the US, but to do everything possible to
avoid it. Time is on their side, because with each passing day they become
stronger while America grows weaker. But while this process runs its course,
America might “touch” a few more countries, turning them into a Libya or an
Iraq. Is Greece next on the list? What about throwing under the bus the
Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), which are now NATO members
(i.e., sacrificial lambs)? Estonia is a short drive from Russia's
second-largest city, St. Petersburg, it has a large Russian population, it
has a majority-Russian capital city, and it has a rabidly anti-Russian
government. Of those four facts, just one is incongruous. Is it being set up
to self-destruct? Some Central Asian republics, in Russia's ticklish
underbelly, might be ripe for being “touched” too.
There is no question that the Americans will continue to try to create
mischief around the world, “touching” vulnerable, exploitable countries, for
as long as they can. But there is another question that deserves to be
asked: Do the Americans “touch” themselves? Because if they do, then the
next candidate for extreme makeover into a bombed-out wasteland might be the
United States itself. Let's consider this option.
As the events in Ferguson, and more recently in Baltimore, have indicated,
the tensions between African-Americans and the police have escalated to a
point where explosions become likely. The American “war on drugs” has been
essentially a war on young black (and Latino) men; about a third of young
blacks are behind bars. They also run a high risk of being shot by the
police. To be fair, the police also run a high risk of getting shot by young
black males, causing them to be jumpy and to overreact. Given the gradually
collapsing economy—close to 100 million working-age Americans are unemployed
(“outside the labor force,” if you wish to split hairs)—it would seem that
for an ever-increasing chunk of the population cooperating with the
authorities is no longer a useful strategy: you get locked up or killed
anyway, but you get none of the temporary benefits that come from ignoring
the law.
There is an interesting asymmetry in the American media's ability to block
out information about civil unrest and insurgency: if it is happening
overseas, then news of it can be carefully calibrated or suppressed
outright. (Did American television tell you about the recent resumption of
shelling of civilian districts by the Ukrainian military? Of course not!)
This is possible because Americans are notoriously narcissistic and largely
indifferent to the rest of the world, of which most of them know little, and
what they think they know is often wrong. But if the unrest is within the US
itself, then the various media outlets find themselves competing against
each other in who can sensationalize it better, in order to get more
viewership, and more advertising revenue. The mainstream media in the US is
tightly controlled by a handful of large conglomerates, making it one big
monopoly on information, but at the level of selling advertising market
principles still prevail.
Thus there is the potential for a positive feedback loop: more civil unrest
generates more sensationalized news coverage, which in turn amplifies the
civil unrest, which further sensationalizes the news coverage. And there is
a second positive feedback loop as well: the more civil unrest there is, the
more the police overreact in trying to control the situation, thereby
generating more rage, amplifying the civil unrest. These two positive
feedback loops can continue to run out of control for a while, but the end
result, in all such recent incidents, is the same: the introduction of
National Guard troops and the imposition of curfew and martial law.
The swift introduction of the military might seem a bit odd, considering
that most police departments, even small-town ones, have been heavily
militarized in recent years, and even the security people at some school
districts now have military vehicles and machine guns. But the progression
is a natural one. On the one hand, when people who habitually resort to
brute force find that it isn't working, they naturally assume that this is
because they aren't using enough of it. On the other hand, if the criminal
justice system is already a travesty and a shambles, then why not just cut
through the red tape and impose martial law?
There is an awful lot of weapons of all sorts in the US already, and more
will come in all the time as the US is forced to close overseas military
bases due to lack of funds. And they will probably get used, for the same
reason and in the same fashion that red bricks came to be used in Boston.
You see, plenty of red bricks kept coming into Boston aboard British ships,
where they were used as ballast for the return trip. This created the
impetus to do something with them. But putting up brick buildings is a
difficult, demanding process, especially if laborers are always drunk. And
so the solution was to use the bricks to pave sidewalks—something one can do
on one's hands and knees. Similarly with the military hardware sloshing back
into the US from abroad. It will be used, because it's there; and it will be
used in the stupidest way possible: shooting at one's own people.
But bad things happen to militaries when they are ordered to shoot at their
own people. It is one thing to shoot at “towel-heads” in a far-away land; it
is quite another to be ordered shoot at somebody who could be your own
brother down the street from where you grew up. Such orders result in
fragging (shooting your own officers), in refusal to follow orders, and in
attempts to stand up for the other side.
And that's where things get interesting. Because, you see, if you shoot at,
imprison, and otherwise abuse a defenseless civilian population long enough,
what you get in response is an armed insurgency. The place insurgencies are
easiest to organize is in prison. For instance, ISIS, or the Islamic
Caliphate, was masterminded by people who had previously worked for Saddam
Hussein, while they were imprisoned by the Americans. They took this
opportunity to work out an efficient organizational structure and, upon
release, found each other and got down to work. Having a third of young
American blacks locked up gives them all the opportunity they need to
organize an effective insurgency.
To be effective, an insurgency needs lots of weapons. Here, again, there is
a procedure for acquiring military technology that has become almost
routine. What weapons are being used by ISIS? Why, of course, American ones,
which the Americans provided to the regime in Baghdad, and which ISIS took
as trophies when the Iraqi army refused to fight and ran away. And what
weapons are being used by the Houthi rebels in Yemen? Why, of course, the
American ones, which the Americans provided to the now overthrown
pro-American regime there. And what are some of the weapons being used by
the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad? Why, of course, American ones, sold to
them by the Ukrainian government, which got them from the Americans. There
is a pattern here: it seems that whenever Americans arm, train and equip an
army, that army stands a really big chance of simply melting away, with the
weapons falling into the hands of those who want to use them against
American interests. It is hard to see why this same pattern wouldn't hold
once the US places much of itself under military occupation.
And that's where things get really interesting: a well-armed, well-organized
insurgency composed of thoroughly radicalized, outraged people who have
absolutely nothing to lose and are fighting for their home turf and their
families squaring off against a demoralized, defeated US military that has
just failed spectacularly in every country it “touched.”
They say that “You can't fight city hall.” But what if you have a tank
battalion that can control four intersections all around city hall, turrets
pointed in all directions, firing at anything that moves? And what if you
have enough infantry to go around and ring the doorbells of all the key city
hall bureaucrats? Wouldn't that change one's odds of victory in fighting
city hall?
The US might get to “touch” a few more countries before this scenario
unfolds, but it seems likely that (excepting the possibility of all-out war)
eventually America will “touch” itself, and then all those countries whose
troops marched through Red Square last Saturday won't have America to kick
around any more.