Pakistan Enters The New Silk Road
By Pepe Escobar
April 25, 2015 "Information
Clearing House" - "Asia
Times" - Now how do you top this
as a geopolitical entrance? Eight JF-17 Thunder fighter jets escorting Chinese
President Xi Jinping on board an Air China Boeing as he enters Pakistani air
space. And these JF-17s are built as a China-Pakistan joint project.
Silk Road? Better yet; silk skyway.
Just to drive the point home – and into everyone’s homes – a
little further, Xi penned a column widely distributed to Pakistani media before
his first overseas trip in 2015.
He stressed, “We need to form a ‘1+4′ cooperation structure
with the Economic Corridor at the center and the Gwadar Port, energy,
infrastructure and industrial cooperation being the four key areas to drive
development across Pakistan and deliver tangible benefits to its people.”
Quick translation: China is bringing Pakistan into the massive
New Silk Road(s) project with a bang.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry, also on cue, stressed that
Pakistan would be in the frontline to benefit from the $40 billion Silk Road
Fund, which will help to finance the Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk
Road projects; or, in Chinese jargon, “One Belt, One Road”, that maze of roads,
high-speed rail, ports, pipelines and fiber optics networks bound to
turbo-charge China’s links to Europe through Russia, Central Asia and the Indian
Ocean.
The Silk Road Fund will disburse funds in parallel with the
new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which has already enticed no
less than 57 countries. China’s assistant foreign minister, Liu Jianchao, has
not delved into detailed numbers, but he assures China “stands ready to provide
financing.”
So no wonder
Pakistani
media was elated. A consensus is also fast emerging that China is becoming
“Pakistan’s most important ally” from either West or East.
Beijing’s carefully calibrated commercial offensive mixing
Chinese leadership concepts such as harmonious society and Chinese dream with a
“win-win” neighborhood policy seduces by the numbers alone: $46 billion in
investment in Pakistan ($11 billion in infrastructure, $35 billion in energy),
compared to a U.S. Congress’s $7.5 billion program that’s been in place since
2008.
The meat of the matter is that Washington’s “help” to
Islamabad is enveloped in outdated weapons systems, while Beijing is investing
in stuff that actually benefits people in Pakistan; think of $15.5 billion in
coal, wind, solar and hydro energy projects bound to come online by 2017, or a
$44 million optical fiber cable linking China and Pakistan.
According to the Center
for Global Development, between 2002 and 2009 no less than 70% of U.S. aid
was about “security” – related to the never-ending GWOT (global war on terror).
As a Pakistani analyst wrote me, “just compare Xi’s vision for his neighbors and
the history of America in Latin America. It is like the difference between
heaven and hell.”
That “X” factor
At the heart of the action is the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC), whose embryo had already been discussed when Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif visited Beijing in the summer of 2013. The economic corridor,
across 3,000 km, will link the port of Gwadar, in the Arabian Sea, not far from
the Iranian border, with China’s Xinjiang.
China is already in Gwadar; China Overseas Port Holding
Company is operating it for two years now, after helping to build the first
phase. Gwadar formally opens before the end of the month, but a first-class
highway and railway linking it to the rest of Pakistan still need to be built
(mostly by Chinese companies), not to mention an international airport,
scheduled to open by 2017.
All this action implies a frenzy of Chinese workers building
roads, railways – and power plants. Their security must be assured. And that
means solving the “X” factor; “X” as in Xinjiang, China’s vast far west, home to
only 22 million people including plenty of disgruntled Uyghurs.
Beijing-based analyst Gabriele Battaglia has detailed how
Xinjiang has been addressed according to the new guiding principle of President
Xi’s ethnic policy. The key idea, says Battaglia, is to manage the ethnic
conflict between Han Chinese and Uyghurs by applying the so-called three “J”:
jiaowang, jiaoliu, jiaorong, that is, “inter-ethnic
contact”, “exchange” and “mixage”.
Yet what is essentially a push towards assimilation coupled
with some economic incentives is far from assured success; after all the bulk of
Xinjiang’s day-to-day policy is conducted by unprepared Han cadres who tend to
view most Uyghurs as “terrorists”.
Many of these cadres identify any separatist stirring in
Xinjiang as CIA-provoked, which is not totally true. There is an extreme Uyghur
minority which actually entered Wahhabi-driven jihadism (I met some of them in
Masoud’s prisons in the Panjshir valley before 9/11) and has gone to fight
everywhere from Chechnya to Syria. But what the overwhelming majority really
wants is an economic shot at the Chinese dream.
The Pakistani counterpart to Xinjiang is Balochistan,
inhabited by a little over 6 million people. There have been at least three
different separatist factions/movements in Balochistan fighting Islamabad and
what they call “Punjabis” with a vengeance. Former provincial minister Jaffar
Khan Mandokhel, for instance, is already warning there will be a “strong
reaction” across Balochistan to changes in the corridor’s routes, which, he
says, “are meant to give maximum benefit to Punjab, which is already considered
the privileged province.” Islamabad denies any changes.
The corridor is also bound to bypass most of the key,
northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Opposition political star Imran
Khan – whose party is on top in Khyber – has already condemned it as an
injustice.
Beijing, for its part, has been very explicit to Islamabad;
the Pakistani Taliban must be defeated, or at least appeased. That explains why
since June 2014 the Pakistani army has been involved in a huge aerial bombing
campaign – Zarb-e Azb – againt the Haqqani network and other hardcore
tribals. The Pakistani army has already set up a special division to take care
of the corridor, including nine battalions and the proverbial paramilitary
forces. None of this though is a guarantee of success.
Karakoram or bust
It will be absolutely fascinating to watch how China and
Pakistan, simultaneously, may be able to keep the peace in both Xinjiang and
Balochistan to assure booming trade along the corridor. Geographicaly though,
this all makes perfect sense.
Xinjiang is closer to the Arabian Sea than Shanghai. Shanghai
is twice more distant from Urumqi than Karachi. So no wonder Beijing thinks of
Pakistan as a sort of Hong Kong West, as I examined in some detail
here.
This is also a microcosm of East and South Asia integration,
and even Greater Asia integration, if we include China, Iran, Afghanistan, and
even Myanmar.
The spectacular Karakoram highway, from Kashgar to Islamabad,
a feat of engineering completed by the Chinese working alongside the Pakistan
Army Corps of engineers, will be upgraded, and extended all the way to Gwadar. A
railway will also be built. And in the near future, yet another key
Pipelineistan stretch.
Pipelineistan is linked to the corridor also in the form of
the Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline, which Beijing will help Islamabad to finish
to the tune of $2 billion, after successive U.S. administrations relentlessly
tried to derail it. The geopolitical dividends of China blessing a steel
umbilical cord between Iran and Pakistan are of course priceless.
The end result is that early in the 2020s China will be
connected in multiple ways practically with the mouth of the Persian Gulf. Large
swathes of massive China-Europe trade will be able to avoid the Strait of
Malacca. China will be turbo-charging trade with the Middle East and Africa.
China-bound Middle East oil will be offloaded at Gwadar and transported to
Xinjiang via Balochistan – before a pipeline is finished. And Pakistan will
profit from more energy, infrastructure and transit trade.
Talk about a “win-win”. And that’s not even accounting for
China’s thirst for gold. Balochistan is awash with gold, and there have been new
discoveries in Punjab.
New Silk Road action is nothing short than frantic. The Bank
of China is already channeling $62 billion of its immense foreign exchange
reserves to three policy banks supporting New Silk Road(s) projects; $32 billion
to China Development Bank (CDB) and $30 billion to Export-Import Bank of China (EXIM).
The Agricultural Development Bank of China (ADBC) will also get its share.
And it’s not only Pakistan; the five Central Asian “stans” –
rich in oil, gas, coal, agricultural land, gold, copper, uranium – are also
targeted.
There’s a new highway from Kashgar to Osh, in Kyrgyzstan, and
a new railway between Urumqi and Almaty, in Kazakhstan. We may be a long way
away from the new high-speed Silk Rail, but trade between, for instance, the
megacities of Chongqing or Chengdu in Sichuan with Germany now moves in only 20
days; that’s 15 days less than the sea route.
So it’s no wonder a “special leading group” was set up by
Beijing to oversee everything going on in the One Road, One Belt galaxy. The
crucial action plan is here.
Those who’re about to go silk, we salute you.