Washington Misses Bigger
Picture of New Chinese Investment Bank
By Jim Lobe
March 22, 2015 "ICH"
-
Bibi Netanyahu’s
election, persistent violence through much
of the Middle East and North Africa, and
intensified efforts to forge a nuclear deal
between the P5+1 and Iran topped the news
here in Washington this week. But a much
bigger story in terms of the future order of
global politics was taking place in Europe
and Beijing.
The story was simply this: virtually all of
the closest European allies of the United
States, beginning with Britain, defied
pressure from Washington by deciding to
apply for founding membership in the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). This
Chinese initiative could quickly rival the
World Bank and the Asia Development Bank as
a major source of funding for big
development projects across Eurasia.
The new bank, which offers
a serious multilateral alternative to the
Western-dominated international financial
institutions (IFIs) established in the
post-World War II order, is expected to
attract about three dozen initial members,
including all of China’s Asian neighbors
(with the possible exception of Japan).
Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other
Gulf states are also likely to join by the
March 31 deadline set by Beijing for
prospective co-founders to apply. Its $50
billion in initial capital is expected to
double with the addition of new members, and
that amount could quickly grow given China’s
$3 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves.
More details about the bank can be found in
a helpful Q&A here at
the Council on Foreign Relations website.
Along with the so-called
BRICS bank—whose membership so far is
limited to Brazil, Russia, India, China and
South Africa—the AIIB poses a real
“challenge to the existing global economic
order,” which, of course, Western nations
have dominated since the establishment of
the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and
the World Bank in the final days of World
War II. As one
unnamed European official told The New
York Times, “We have moved from the
world of 1945.”
That Washington’s closest
Western allies are now racing to join the
AIIB over U.S. objections offers yet more
evidence that the “unipolar
moment” celebrated by neoconservatives
and aggressive nationalists 25 years ago and
then reaffirmed by the same forces after the
2003 Iraq invasion is well and truly. And
yet, these same neoconservatives continue to
insist that—but for Obama’s weakness and
defeatism—the United States remains so
powerful that it really doesn’t have to take
account of anyone’s interests outside its
borders except, maybe, Israel’s.
(That Washington’s closest
Western allies are now racing to join the
new bank over U.S. objections could also
presage a greater willingness to abandon the
international sanctions regime against Iran
if Washington is seen as responsible for the
collapse of the P5+1 nuclear negotiations
with Tehran. Granted, Iran’s economy—and its
potential as a source of investment
capital—is itsy-bitsy compared to China.)
Indeed, commentators are
depicting US allies’ decision to join the
AIIB (see here, here,
and here as
examples) as a debacle for U.S. diplomacy.
The Wall Street Journal editorial
board has
predictably blamed Obama for defeat,
calling it a “case study in declining
American influence” (although it also
defended Washington’s decision against
joining and accused Britain of “appeasing
China for commercial purposes.”)
What the Journal predictably
didn’t mention was a key reason why the
administration did not seek membership in
the new bank: there was virtually no chance
that a Republican-dominated Congress would
approve it. Indeed, one reason Beijing
launched its initiative and so many of our
allies in both Asia and Europe have decided
to join is
their frustration with Republicans in
Congress who have refused to ratify a major
reform package designed to give developing
countries, including China, a little more
voting power on the Western-dominated
governing boards of the IMF and the World
Bank. The Group of 20 (G20) biggest economic
powers actually proposed this reform in
2010, and it doesn’t even reduce
Washington’s voting power, which gives it an
effective veto over major policy changes in
both institutions. As a result of this
intransigence, the United States is the only
G-20 member that has failed to ratify the
reforms, effectively blocking their
implementation. As noted by a New
York Times editorial Friday,
Congress bears
considerable blame for refusing to pass
legislation to shift voting power more
fairly among IMF member states,
including China. China’s move to create
the new development bank is part of the
price being paid for that obstruction.
Indeed, Treasury Secretary
Jacob Lew made this point implicitly in
testimony this week in which he also
restated U.S. reservations about the AIIB:
Our continued failure
to approve the IMF quota and governance
reforms is causing other countries,
including some of our allies, to
question our commitment to the IMF and
other multilateral institutions that we
worked to create and that advance
important US and global economic and
security interests.
…The IMF reforms will
help convince emerging economies to
remain anchored in the multilateral
system that the United States helped
design and continues to lead.
Now, of course, China
would probably have created the AIIB on its
own even if the Congress had ratified the
IMF package. But the repeated congressional
refusal to do so gave the Europeans (who
have supported the reforms despite the fact
that they would lose the most voting power
if the reforms were implemented) and other
U.S. allies an additional reason to join up.
And none of this absolves the Obama
administration of its own diplomatic failure
in persuading its allies to hold back. Or
the administration might have tried a
different strategy: joining the Bank and
then trying to get Congress on board.
Surprisingly, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), the
upper chamber’s new neoconservative
heartthrob,told
an audience at the Hudson Institute this
past week that it would have been better for
the U.S. to sign up so as to gain some
influence over the Bank’s operations and
policies. (However, one of Cotton’s reported
sugar-daddies, Sheldon
Adelson, has always been loathe
to alienate Beijing’s leaders for fear they
could interfere with his lucrative casino
interests in Macao.) After all, as more
than one commentator has noted, the Obama
administration has long argued that Beijing
should assume a leadership role in global
affairs commensurate with its wealth and
geo-strategic importance.
Given all the negative
commentary by Asia and development
specialists, it’s still possible that Obama
may reconsider U.S. opposition to membership
before the March 31 deadline, as
suggested by Elizabeth Economy of the
Council on Foreign Relations and others.
But the main point here is
that official Washington—including
Republicans in Congress and the mainstream
media—is not paying adequate attention to
major shifts in the global order and how
isolated the United States has become
vis-à-vis the “international community,”
especially its most important allies. Still
stuck shoulder-deep in the Middle East, the
vaunted “pivot” to the Pacific looks
increasingly hollow, especially with a
Republican Congress agitating to dig us in
even deeper by, for example, sticking
slavishly by a Netanyahu-led Israel and
trying to sabotage an Iran deal. Active
Republican resistance to even modest moves
advocated by the administration on global
warming is also harming our credibility with
allies, as well as others, as it has since
George W. Bush renounced the Kyoto Protocol.
One could go on and on. It’s very difficult
to exercise global “leadership” when you’ve
isolated yourself from the rest of the world
and fail to take account of how much the
world has changed from that much-cherished
“unipolar moment.”
The Washington Bureau
Chief of the international news agency,
Inter Press Service,
Jim Lobe
is best known for his coverage of U.S.
foreign policy. http://www.lobelog.com