Whatever Became of
Economists
and the American Economy
By Paul Craig Roberts
February 23, 2015 "ICH"
- According to the official economic fairy
tale, the US economy has been in recovery
since June 2009.
This fairy tale supports
America’s image as the safe haven, an image
that keeps the dollar up, the stock market
up, and interest rates down. It is an image
that causes the massive numbers of
unemployed Americans to blame themselves and
not the mishandled economy.
This fairy tale survives
despite the fact that there is no economic
information whatsoever that supports it.
Real median household
income has not grown for years and is below
the levels of the early 1970s.
There has been no growth
in real retail sales for six years.
How does an economy
dependent on consumer demand grow when real
consumer incomes and real retail sales do
not grow?
Not from business
investment. Why invest when there is no
sales growth? Industrial production,
properly deflated, remains well below the
pre-recession level.
Not from construction. The
real value of total construction put in
place declined sharply from 2006 through
2011 and has bounced around the 2011 bottom
for the past three years.
How does an economy grow
when the labor force is shrinking? The labor
force participation rate has declined since
2007 as has the civilian employment to
population ratio.
How can there be a
recovery when nothing has recovered?
Do economists believe that
the entire corpus of macroeconomics taught
since the 1940s is simply incorrect? If not,
how can economists possibly support the
recovery fairy tale?
We see the same absence of
economics in the policy response to the
sovereign debt crisis in Europe. First of
all, the only reason that there is a crisis
is because instead of writing off that part
of the debt that cannot be paid, as in the
past, so that the rest of the debt could be
paid, creditors have demanded the
impossible–that all the debt be paid.
In an attempt to achieve
the impossible, heavily indebted countries,
such as Greece, have been forced to reduce
old age pensions, fire government employees,
reduce social services such as health care
and education, reduce wages, and sell-off
public property such as ports, municipal
water companies, and the state lottery.
These austerity packages deprive the
government of revenues and the population of
spending power. Consequently, consumption,
investment, and government spending all
fall, and the economy sinks lower. As the
economy sinks, the existing debt becomes a
larger percentage of the GDP and becomes
even more unserviceable.
Economists have known this
ever since John Maynard Keynes taught it to
them in the 1930s. Yet there is no sign of
this foundational economics in the policy
approach to the sovereign debt crisis.
Economists it appears have
simply vanished from the earth. Or, if some
are still present, they have lost their
voices and do not speak.
Consider “globalism.”
Every country has been convinced that
globalism is imperative and that not to be
part of the “global economy” means economic
death. In fact, to be part of the global
economy means death.
Understand the economic
destruction that globalism has wreaked on
the United States. Millions of middle class
factory jobs and professional skill jobs
such as software engineering and Information
Technology have been taken away from the
American middle class and given to people in
Asia. In the short-run this drops labor
costs and benefits the profits of the US
corporations that offshore the jobs, but the
consequence is to destroy the domestic
consumer market as jobs that permit the
formation of households are replaced with
lowly paid part-time jobs that do not.
If households cannot form,
the demand for housing, home appliances and
furnishings declines. College graduates
return home to live with their parents.
Part-time jobs hurt the
ability to save. People are only able to
purchase cars because they can get 100
percent financing, and more in order to pay
off an existing car loan that exceeds the
vehicle’s trade-in value, in a six-year
loan. These loans are possible, because
those who make the loans sell them. The
loans are then securitized and sold as
investments to those desperate for yield in
a zero interest rate world. Derivatives are
spun off these “investments,” and a new
bubble is put in place.
When manufacturing jobs
are offshored, the US plants are closed, and
the tax base of state and local governments
declines. When the governments have trouble
servicing their accumulated debt, the
tendency is not to meet their pension
obligations. This reduces retiree incomes,
incomes already reduced by zero or negative
interest rates.
This unraveling of
consumer demand, the basis for our economy,
was entirely obvious at the very beginning.
Yet junk economists or hired corporate
mouthpieces promised Americans a “New
Economy” that would provide them with
better, higher paying, cleaner jobs to take
the place of the jobs moved abroad. As I
have pointed out for more than a decade,
there is no sign of these jobs anywhere in
the economy.
Why did economists make no
protest as the US economy was shipped abroad
and deep-sixed at home?
Globalism also devastates
“emerging economies.” Self-sufficient
agricultural communities are destroyed by
the introduction of large-scale monoculture
agriculture. The uprooted peoples relocate
to cities where they become a drain on
social services and a source of political
instability.
Globalism, like neoliberal
economics, is an instrument of economic
imperialism. Labor is exploited, while
peoples, cultures, and environments are
destroyed. Yet the propaganda is so powerful
that people partake of their own
destruction.
Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was
Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for
Economic Policy and associate editor of the
Wall Street Journal. He was columnist for
Business Week, Scripps Howard News Service,
and Creators Syndicate. He has had many
university appointments. His internet
columns have attracted a worldwide
following. Roberts' latest books are
The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism and
Economic Dissolution of the West and
How America Was Lost.