The Strategic
Implications of the Battle for Debaltsevo
By The Saker
February 18, 2015 "ICH"
- The Novorussians are in control of most of
Debaltsevo (officially 90% officially 100%
as of midnight GMT). More relevantly, there
is no more organized resistance. Russian
sources say that about 1000 junta soldiers
have refused to surrender and are hiding in
the outskirts or have fled to the south end
of the cauldron. The Novorussians are not
even bothering to hunt them down or return
their sporadic (and inaccurate) fire: they
are waiting for hunger and cold to force
them to give up. A spokesman for the
Novorussians has reported that all
communications between the junta forces in
the cauldron and their commanders have been
suppressed. Russian TV stations are showing
footage of Novorussian soliders raising
their flag over the center of the city.
That the forces in the Debaltsevo cauldron
were doomed was pretty clear for a while
already, but what is still amazing is the
speed at which the collapse has taken place.
Clearly, we are dealing with a catastrophic
collapse of combat capability of the junta
forces.
The Russian media is also
showing many footages of surrendering junta
soldiers in and around Debaltsevo. Those
who surrender are treated for their wounds,
washed, clothed, fed and they will be sent
home as soon as possible.
During his recent press conference in
Hungary, Vladimir Putin has confirmed that
the Ukrainian forces in Debaltsevo has been
defeated. He also confirmed that the US has
been sending weapons to the junta and he
added that he was absolutely sure that while
this could kill more people, it would make
no difference at all because the Ukrainian
soldiers have no desire to fight whereas the
morale of the Novorussians was extremely
strong.
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Debaltsevo cauldron |
The most amazing event of the
day though is Petro Poroshenko's continual
denial that there is any Debaltsevo cauldron
at all. Apparently the junta is in such a
shock from the recent events that the freaks
in Kiev has decided to simply completely
deny the reality of it all. This is an
extremely misguided strategy because even
though the Russian media has now been banned
on Ukrainian cable and radio stations, and
the entire Russian press corps has had
its accreditation in the Ukraine canceled,
it is still accessible on the Internet and
information about the current events is
easily transmitted simply by phone
(including phone calls from junta forces
inside the cauldron). So while the freaks
in the Rada and the government can go into
the "deep denial" mode, the population is
informed about the reality and rumors will,
if anything, only amplify the magnitude of
the disaster.
[I would not be most surprised at all if the
hardcore crazies à la Iarosh & Co. now turn
against Poroshenko. It will be interesting
to see how "Iats" and Turchinov will
position themselves - my feeling is that
they will all turn against Poroshenko next.]
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Gorlovka - Debaltsevo AO |
I think that what we are
witnessing these days is truly a historical
event. While the defeat in Debaltsevo is
tactical in its dimension, it will most
definitely have serious operational
consequences and possibly even strategic
ones. Though I
cannot say that with any degree of
confidence I am getting the strong feeling
that the entire Ukrainian military has
reached the famous "breaking point" I often
mentioned here in the past: the point were
regardless of your remaining capabilities
the entire organization of your military
suddenly and rapidly breaks down. Yes, I
know, the rest of the front is currently
stable, but I think that the defeat in
Debaltsevo will have a crippling effect on
the morale of all the junta forces. Not
only that, but as soon as the cauldron is
fully eliminated, the Novorussian forces who
took it will be available for operations
elsewhere.
Think about it: a number of key locations
absorbed a huge amount of Novorussian
forces, especially the Donetsk airport
(which was used to shell Donetsk), the
Debaltsevo pocket (which was used to shell
Gorlovka, which threatened the
Donetsk-Gorlovka-Lugansk axis and which
could be used to mount an attack on either
Donetsk or Lugansk) and the town of Peski
which was used to support the junta forces
at the Donetsk airport. They are now all in
Novorussian hands. The question now is
where can they turn next?
For the time being, the Novorussians are
playing it very "good boys". They have even
begun to withdraw their heavy weapons even
though the junta has not (they were supposed
to do that simultaneously). But let's not
be naive here: they are doing so because
they know that it is safe for them to do it,
not because they have any trust in the Minsk
Agreement 2 (MA2) or, even less so in the
junta. The Novorussian infantry (and armor)
is so superior to the junta's that they can
afford to do so at very little cost to
themselves. But since everybody understands
that MA2 is impossible to comply with, it is
obvious for all the parties involve that the
conflict will resume. When that happens, it
will be in a dramatically different context
from the one this winter.
First, the Novorussians are, for the first
time, adequately armed, equipped and
supplied. Second, the Debaltsvo operation
has shown that for the first time the LNR
and DNR forces are capable of working
together. Even Mozgovoi, who has less then
good things to say about Zakharchenko or
Plotnitsky in political terms, is playing it
by the same book militarily and all the
Novorussian forces appear to have finally
been placed under a single command. Third,
the two major weaknesses of the Novorussian
positions have now been removed and that is
freeing a lot of crack troops for other
fronts.
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Mariupol AO |
Take the case of Mariupol for
example. The junta forces there have tried
to built an attack in the general direction
of Novoazovsk. All they did was to
penetrate a couple of kilometers into the no
mans land between the two sides and then
they were rather easily stopped. Now that
Novorussian crack forces will soon become
available, a Novorussian counter-offensive
in Mariupol becomes a very real threat to
the junta forces in the city. Until now,
any such attack by the Novorussians was
risky due to the possibility of a junta
flanking maneuver the the danger to be cut
off from the rest of the Novorussian forces,
but that danger has now receded not only due
to the availability of Novorussian forces,
but also due to the crushed morale of the
junta units.
An other interesting option has been
mentioned by anti-maidan's (very good)
military specialist Andrei Basketok who
predicts a Novorussian attack along the M4
and N20 in the direction of Karlovka and
Avdeevka followed by a pincer attack to
surround the junta forces once again (shown
in red on this map):
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Possible Karlovka-Avdeevka offensive |
The real problem for Kiev is
that more or less all of the current line of
contact can become a potential
counter-offensive point for the Novorussians
who, by the way, have never concealed their
desire to get back all of the historical
Novorussian lands. So while the current
(relative) cease-fire is all nice and dandy,
I think that by this spring, when the
Novorussians will have reinforced their
infantry with up to 100'00 more men the
situation for the Kiev regime will become
absolutely horrific and no amount of US
weapon deliveries will change that. This
might well be the beginning of the end for
the Nazi experiment in Kiev.
The implications for the AngloZionist empire
are rather clear: if the 1%ers have any kind
of sense of reality left, they should toss
out Poroshenko and the rest of the crazies
and foster some kind of government of
technocrats in charge of drafting a new
constitution and organizing a referendum on
federalization simply because the folks in
Kiev better negotiate while there still is
something left to negotiate then to way to
be hiding in a surrounded bunker like their
hero Hitler did. Alas, I don't think Uncle
Sam or the Eurocretins have any common sense
left in them.
Whatever may be the case, by the ballot or
by the bullet, but we *are* winning.
The Saker
PS: to fully measure the level of delusional
insanity of the junta in Kiev here is the
full transcript of the latest
statement by Poroshenko about the
Debaltsevo situation:
I can inform now that this morning the Armed
Forces of Ukraine together with the National
Guard completed the operation on the planned
and organized withdrawal of a part of units
from Debaltsevo. We can say that 80% of
troops have been already withdrawn. We are
waiting for two more columns. Warriors of
the 128th brigade, parts of units of the
30th brigade, the rest of the 25th and the
40th battalions, Special Forces, the
National Guard and the police have already
left the area.
We can assert that the Armed Forces of
Ukraine have fulfilled their tasks
completely. This position and success were
urgently necessary for us in the course of
the Minsk negotiations and after them. We
managed to show to the whole world the true
face of bandits-separatists backed by
Russia, which acted as guarantor and direct
participant of the Minsk negotiations.
We were asserting and proved: Debaltseve was
under our control, there was no
encirclement, and our troops left the area
in a planned and organized manner with all
the heavy weaponry: tanks, APCs,
self-propelled artillery and vehicles.
Commanders are working with their personnel.
We are waiting for one more column, one more
company. Having withdrawn the combat patrol
posts to the new defense line, we have
preserved the bridgehead for the defense of
the state.
It is a strong evidence of combat readiness
of the Armed Forces and efficiency of the
military command. I can say that despite
tough artillery and MLRS shelling, according
to the recent data, we have 30 wounded out
of more than 2,000 warriors. The information
is being collected and may be clarified.
I would like to say that Russia, which
yesterday required the Ukrainian warriors to
lay down arms, raise the white flag and
surrender, was put to shame by the given
actions. Ukrainian warriors honorably
approved the high rank of the Ukrainian
Defender of the Homeland. As I promised,
they repelled those who tried to encircle
them and left Debaltsevo pursuant to my
command, which I gave yesterday, when
Russian servicemen forbade the OSCE
representatives to come to Debaltsevo to
reaffirm our readiness to begin the
withdrawal of heavy weaponry and demonstrate
the absence of encirclement. They knew it
was not true. We demonstrated and proved
that with our operation.
We are holding the new defense lines. In the
course of my negotiations with leaders of
the United States and the EU, I demanded a
firm reaction from the world to Russia's
brutal violation of the Minsk agreements,
the ceasefire regime and the withdrawal of
heavy weaponry. We will prepare organized
and coordinated actions together.
I have convened the NSDC meeting for this
evening. Now, I am departing to the front to
meet those who left Debaltsevo. I am honored
to shake hands and thank Ukrainian heroes.
Today, my Decree on awarding the high title
of Hero of Ukraine to commander of the 128th
Mukacheve mining-infantry brigade Serhiy
Shaptala will be proclaimed. Ukraine is
proud of such heroes. Internal stability
will not be undermined by the battalions
"everything is lost" and "this is the end",
lies about a lot of soldiers murdered
yesterday, encircled roadblocks and
Ukrainian warriors without ammunition, food
and water. It is not a Ukrainian scenario. I
am confident that those who were spreading
it expected a different result. Fortunately,
we successfully completed the operation and
will have an opportunity to further defend
the state.
UPDATE:
interestingly, the NYT had a very different
view of what has really taken place. In an
article entitled "A
Bloody Retreat From Debaltsevo as Ukrainian
Forces Suddenly Withdraw" the NYT wrote
that "Mr. Poroshenko sought to cast the
retreat in a positive light, but the loss of
the town was clearly a devastating
setback for the army". The fact that
even the NYT has a more realistic assessment
of what happened then Poroshenko is a
powerful indicator of how totally out of
touch the junta propaganda really is.
The Saker blogs at
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com
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