Putin Wins a Second Match
By Eric Margolis
February 14, 2015 "ICH"
- Has Russia’s Vladimir Putin pulled Barack
Obama’s chestnuts out of the fire for a
second time?
Will the shaky cease-fire in Ukraine that
began this weekend hold up and end a
conflict that was threatening a nuclear war
between the United States and Russia?
The answer to the first question is yes.
Remember back in 2013 when the Obama White
House was threatening to attack Syria over
allegations it was using poison gas?
As it turned out, the UN found it was the
US-backed Syrian rebels who were likely to
have used chemical weapons rather than the
Damascus regime.
Noble Peace Prize Winner Obama and his lady
strategists almost got the US into a war in
Syria that could have led to direct clashes
with Russia, which was backing the Damascus
government.
Along came that unlikely man of peace,
Russia’s Vlad Putin, who charted a
diplomatic course out of the Syria mess for
the bumbling White House which had talked
itself into corner.
Now, it seems the much-reviled Russian
leader is doing it again. The cease-fire
agreement forged in Minsk late last week may
end or at least de-escalate the conflict in
eastern Ukraine that was drawing the US and
Russia into a direct confrontation. Whether
the cease-fire/truce holds up is uncertain
but the absolute necessity of a negotiated
settlement over the Ukraine crisis could not
be more clear. Nuclear-armed powers must
never, ever clash militarily.
President Putin proposed the solution over a
year ago: autonomy in a federal state and
the right to speak Russian for eastern
Ukraine. Most important, Ukraine would never
join NATO. Doing so would have put Russia’s
vital naval base at Sevastopol under NATO
control – as unthinkable for Moscow as for
the US to see Norfolk, Virginia, or Houston
under Russian or Chinese control.
Ukraine’s fierce nationalists and their US
backers rejected Putin’s plan and set about
trying to impose Kiev’s total control by
military force.
It’s ironic that the US has given total
support to Kiev’s war against what it calls
“rebels” and “terrorists” while arming and
financing Syria’s Sunni rebels whom Damascus
brands “rebels” and “terrorists.”
A peace deal comes not an hour too soon. A
full battalion of US Army troops is
scheduled to arrive in western Ukraine to
“train” government troops and lead them into
battle. This hare-brained scheme has a
potential clash with Russia written all over
it.
Imagine if Russian troops arrived outside
Montreal to train Canadian forces. The US
has no strategic interests in Ukraine, which
was part of the Soviet Union/Russia until
1991. The whole crazy scheme was promoted by
neocons as a way of undermining Russia and
pulling Ukraine into their ideological
orbit.
Ukraine, like the whole Charlie Hebdo
circus, has been very useful politically.
Canada’s rightist prime minister, Stephen
Harper, shamelessly pandered to voters of
Ukrainian background (there are over one
million in Canada) by making all sorts of
warlike threats against Moscow even though
militarily feeble Canada would be
hard-pressed to hold its own against
Luxembourg. Pure political theater.
Interesting, the iron-fisted ruler of
Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, long the
target of western media invective, has
become a key moderate force in the Ukraine
crisis, in part blocking efforts by Poland’s
anti-Russian rightwingers to intensify the
crisis.
Putin’s goal is clearly not to annex Ukraine
to Russia – at least not now. He simply
wants to ensure that Ukraine does not become
a NATO dagger pointed at the heart of Russia
or the Black Sea. Ukraine has been a
bankrupt failed state since 1991 run by
incompetent politicians, gangsters, and
oligarchs.
The US-directed International Monetary Fund
is now preparing an emergency $17.5 billion
loan just to keep Ukraine afloat. Another
$40 billion is seen as urgent in the near
future. Kiev just managed to pay off half
its $2.2 billion gas debt to Moscow, likely
with US aid. But the winter will be long and
cold.
Russia’s economy is staggering under
rock-bottom oil prices and the US-led trade
embargo. The last thing Moscow needs is to
have to finance bankrupt Ukraine.
Interestingly, western Europe appears to be
suffering more pain from the US-led trade
sanctions and is clamoring for them to be
lifted.
Putin has gotten Crimea back and Ukraine is
in confusion. Most important, the march to
war in Ukraine between nuclear-armed Russia
and the US has been averted. Match to Putin.
Eric S. Margolis is an award-winning,
internationally syndicated columnist. His
articles have appeared in the New York
Times, the International Herald Tribune the
Los Angeles Times, Times of London, the Gulf
Times, the Khaleej Times, Nation – Pakistan,
Hurriyet, – Turkey, Sun Times Malaysia and
other news sites in Asia.
http://ericmargolis.com/