Russia Just Pulled Itself
Out Of The Petrodollar
By Tyler Durden's
January 15, 2015 "ICH"
- "Zero
Hedge"
- - Back in November, before most
grasped just how serious the collapse in
crude was (and would become, as well as its
massive implications), we wrote "How
The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody
Noticed", because for the first time in
almost two decades, energy-exporting
countries would pull their "petrodollars"
out of world markets in 2015.
This empirical death of
Petrodollar followed years of windfalls for
oil exporters such as Russia, Angola, Saudi
Arabia and Nigeria. Much of that money found
its way into financial markets, helping to
boost asset prices and keep the cost of
borrowing down, through so-called
petrodollar recycling.
We added that in 2014 "the
oil producers will effectively import
capital amounting to $7.6 billion. By
comparison, they exported $60 billion in
2013 and $248 billion in 2012, according to
the following graphic based on BNP Paribas
calculations."
The problem was compounded
by its own positive feedback loop: as the
last few weeks vividly demonstrated,
plunging oil would lead to a further
liquidation in foreign reserves for the oil
exporters who rushed to preserve their
currencies, leading to even greater drops in
oil as the viable producers rushed to pump
out as much crude out of the ground as
possible in a scramble to put the weakest
producers out of business, and to crush
marginal production. Call it Game Theory
gone mad and on steroids.
Ironically, when the price
of crude started its self-reinforcing
plunge, such a death would happen whether
the petrodollar participants wanted it, or,
as the case may be, were dragged
into the abattoir kicking and screaming.
It is the latter that
seems to have taken place with the one
country that many though initially would do
everything in its power to have an amicable
departure from the Petrodollar and yet whose
divorce from the USD has quickly become a
very messy affair, with lots of screaming
and the occasional artillery shell.
As
Bloomberg reports Russia "may
unseal its $88 billion Reserve Fund and
convert some of its foreign-currency
holdings into rubles, the latest government
effort to prop up an economy veering into
its worst slump since 2009."
These are dollars which
Russia would have otherwise recycled into US
denominated assets. Instead, Russia will
purchase even more Rubles and use the
proceeds for FX and economic stabilization
purposes.
"Together with the
central bank, we are selling a part of our
foreign-currency reserves,” Finance Minister
Anton Siluanov said in Moscow today. “We’ll
get rubles and place them in deposits for
banks, giving liquidity to the economy."
Call it less than amicable
divorce, call it what you will: what it is,
is Russia violently leaving the ranks of
countries that exchange crude for US paper.
More:
Russia may
convert as much as 500 billion rubles
from one of the government’s two
sovereign wealth funds to support the
national currency, Siluanov said,
calling the ruble “undervalued.” The
Finance Ministry last month started
selling foreign currency remaining on
the Treasury’s accounts.
The entire 500 billion
rubles or part of the amount will be
converted in January-February through
the central bank, according to Deputy
Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev. The
Bank of Russia will determine the timing
and method of the operation.
The ruble, the world’s
second-worst performing currency last
year, weakened for a fourth day, losing
1.3 percent to 66.0775 against the
dollar by 3:21 p.m. in Moscow. It
trimmed a drop of as much as 2 percent
after Siluanov’s comments. The ruble’s
continued slump this year underscores
the fragility of coordinated measures by
Russia’s government and central bank
that steered the ruble’s rebound from a
record-low intraday level of 80.10 on
Dec. 16. OAO Gazprom and four other
state-controlled exporters were ordered
last month to cut foreign-currency
holdings by March 1 to levels no higher
than they were on Oct. 1. The central
bank sought to make it easier for banks
to access dollars and euros while
raising its key rate to 17 percent, the
emergency level it introduced last month
to arrest the ruble collapse.
Today’s announcement “looks
ruble-supportive, as together with
state-driven selling from exporters it
would support FX supply on the market,”
Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist
for Russia and the Commonwealth of
Independent States at ING Groep NV in
Moscow, said by e-mail. “Also, it will
be helpful for banks, while there might
be some negative effects related to
extra money supply and risks of using
some of the money on the FX market for
short-term speculations.
Bloomberg's dready summary
of the US economy is generally spot on, and
is to be expected when any nation finally
leaves, voluntarily or otherwise, the
stranglehold of a global reserve currency.
What Bloomberg failed to account for is what
happens to the remainder of the Petrodollar
world. Here is what we said last time:
Outside from the
domestic economic impact within EMs due
to the downward oil price shock, we
believe that the implications for
financial market liquidity via the
reduced recycling of petrodollars should
not be underestimated. Because energy
exporters do not fully invest their
export receipts and effectively ‘save’ a
considerable portion of their income,
these surplus funds find their way back
into bank deposits (fuelling the loan
market) as well as into financial
markets and other assets. This capital
has helped fund debt among importers,
helping to boost overall growth as well
as other financial markets liquidity
conditions.
[T]his year,
we expect that incremental liquidity
typically provided by such recycled
flows will be markedly reduced,
estimating that direct and other capital
outflows from energy exporters will have
declined by USD253bn YoY.
Of course, these
economies also receive inward capital,
so on a net basis, the additional
capital provided externally is much
lower. This year, we expect that net
capital flows will be negative for EM,
representing the first net inflow of
capital (USD8bn) for the first time in
eighteen years. This compares with
USD60bn last year, which itself was down
from USD248bn in 2012. At its peak,
recycled EM petro dollars amounted to
USD511bn back in 2006. The declines seen
since 2006 not only reflect the changed
global environment, but also the
propensity of underlying exporters to
begin investing the money domestically
rather than save.
The implications for financial markets
liquidity - not to mention related
downward pressure on US Treasury yields
– is negative.
Considering the wildly
violent moves we have seen so far in the
market confirming just how little liquidity
is left in the market, and of course, the
absolutely collapse in Treasury yields, with
the 30 Year just hitting a record low, this
prediction has been borne out precisely as
expected.
And now, we await to see
which other country will follow Russia out
of the Petrodollar next, and what impact
that will have not only on the world's
reserve currency, on US Treasury rates, and
on the most financialized commodity as this
chart demonstrates...
... but on what is most
important to developed world central
planners everywhere: asset prices levels,
and specifically what happens when the
sellers emerge into what is rapidly shaping
up as the most illiquid market in history.