Russia, China Mock Divide
and Rule
By Pepe Escobar
December 26, 2014 "ICH"
- "Asia
Times" -
ROME and BEIJING - The Roman Empire did it.
The British Empire copied it in style. The
Empire of Chaos has always done it. They
all do it. Divide et impera. Divide and rule
- or divide and conquer. It's nasty, brutish
and effective. Not forever though, like
diamonds, because empires do crumble.
A room with a view to the Pantheon may be a
celebration of Venus - but also a glimpse on
the works of Mars. I had been in Rome
essentially for a symposium - Global WARning
- organized by a very committed, talented
group led by a former member of European
Parliament, Giulietto Chiesa. Three days
later, as the run on the rouble was
unleashed, Chiesa was arrested and expelled
from Estonia as persona non grata, yet
another graphic illustration of the
anti-Russia hysteria gripping the Baltic
nations and the Orwellian grip NATO has on
Europe's weak links. [1] Dissent is simply
not allowed.
At the symposium, held in a divinely
frescoed former 15th century Dominican
refectory now part of the Italian
parliament's library, Sergey Glazyev, on the
phone from Moscow, gave a stark reading of
Cold War 2.0. There's no real "government"
in Kiev; the US ambassador is in charge. An
anti-Russia doctrine has been hatched in
Washington to foment war in Europe - and
European politicians are its collaborators.
Washington wants a war in Europe because it
is losing the competition with China.
Glazyev addressed the sanctions dementia:
Russia is trying simultaneously to
reorganize the politics of the International
Monetary Fund, fight capital flight and
minimize the effect of banks closing credit
lines for many businessmen. Yet the end
result of sanctions, he says, is that Europe
will be the ultimate losers economically;
bureaucracy in Europe has lost economic
focus as American geopoliticians have taken
over.
Only three days before the run on the rouble,
I asked Rosneft's Mikhail Leontyev
(Press-Secretary - Director of the
Information and Advertisement Department)
about the growing rumors of the Russian
government getting ready to apply currency
controls. At the time, no one knew an attack
on rouble would be so swift, and conceived
as a checkmate to destroy the Russian
economy. After sublime espressos at the
Tazza d'Oro, right by the Pantheon, Leontyev
told me that currency controls were indeed a
possibility. But not yet.
What he did emphasize was this was outright
financial war, helped by a fifth column in
the Russian establishment. The only equal
component in this asymmetrical war was
nuclear forces. And yet Russia would not
surrender. Leontyev characterized Europe not
as a historical subject but as an object:
"The European project is an American
project." And "democracy" had become
fiction.
The run on the rouble came and went like a
devastating economic hurricane. Yet you
don't threat a checkmate against a skilled
chess player unless your firepower is
stronger than Jupiter's lightning bolt.
Moscow survived. Gazprom heeded the request
of President Vladimir Putin and will sell
its US dollar reserves on the domestic
market. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter
Steinmeier went on the record against the EU
further "turning the screw" as in more
counterproductive sanctions against Moscow.
And at his annual press conference, Putin
emphasized how Russia would weather the
storm. Yet I was especially intrigued by
what he did not say. [2]
As Mars took over, in a frenetic
acceleration of history, I retreated to my
Pantheon room trying to channel Seneca; from
euthymia - interior serenity - to
that state of imperturbability the Stoics
defined as aponia. Still, it's hard
to cultivate euthymia when Cold War 2.0
rages.
Show me your imperturbable missile
Russia could always deploy an economic
"nuclear" option, declaring a moratorium on
its foreign debt. Then, if Western banks
seized Russian assets, Moscow could seize
every Western investment in Russia. In any
event, the Pentagon and NATO's aim of a
shooting war in the European theater would
not happen; unless Washington was foolish
enough to start it.
Still, that remains a serious possibility,
with the Empire of Chaos accusing Russia of
violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear
Forces Treaty (INF) even as it prepares to
force Europe in 2015 to accept the
deployment of US nuclear cruise missiles.
Russia could outmaneuver Western financial
markets by cutting them off from its wealth
of oil and natural gas. The markets would
inevitably collapse - uncontrolled chaos for
the Empire of Chaos (or "controlled chaos",
in Putin's own words). Imagine the crumbling
of the quadrillion-plus of derivatives. It
would take years for the "West" to replace
Russian oil and natural gas, but the EU's
economy would be instantly devastated.
Just this lightning-bolt Western attack on
the rouble - and oil prices - using the
crushing power of Wall Street firms had
already shaken European banks exposed to
Russia to the core; their credit default
swaps soared. Imagine those banks collapsing
in a Lehman Brothers-style house of cards if
Russia decided to default - thus unleashing
a chain reaction. Think about a non-nuclear
MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) - in fact
warless. Still, Russia is self-sufficient in
all kinds of energy, mineral wealth and
agriculture. Europe isn't. This could become
the lethal result of war by sanctions.
Essentially, the Empire of Chaos is
bluffing, using Europe as pawns. The Empire
of Chaos is as lousy at chess as it is at
history. What it excels in is in upping the
ante to force Russia to back down. Russia
won't back down.
Darkness dawns at the break of chaos
Paraphrasing Bob Dylan in When I Paint My
Masterpiece, I left Rome and landed in
Beijing. Today's Marco Polos travel Air
China; in 10 years, they will be zooming up
in reverse, taking high-speed rail from
Shanghai to Berlin. [3]
From a room in imperial Rome to a room in a
peaceful hutong - a lateral
reminiscence of imperial China. In Rome, the
barbarians swarm inside the gates, softly
pillaging the crumbs of such a rich
heritage, and that includes the local Mafia.
In Beijing, the barbarians are kept under
strict surveillance; of course there's a
Panopticon element to it, essential to
assure internal social peace. The leadership
of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) - ever
since the earth-shattering reforms by the
Little Helmsman Deng Xiaoping - is perfectly
conscious that its Mandate of Heaven is
directly conditioned by the perfect
fine-tuning of nationalism and what we could
term "neoliberalism with Chinese
characteristics".
In a different vein of the "soft beds of the
East" seducing Marcus Aurelius, the silky
splendors of chic Beijing offer a glimpse of
an extremely self-assured emerging power.
After all, Europe is nothing but a catalogue
of multiple sclerosis and Japan is under its
sixth recession in 20 years.
To top it off, in 2014 President Xi Jinping
has deployed unprecedented
diplomatic/geostrategic frenzy - ultimately
tied to the long-term project of slowly but
surely keeping on erasing US supremacy in
Asia and rearranging the global chessboard.
What Xi said in Shanghai in May encapsulates
the project; "It's time for Asians to manage
the affairs of Asia." At the APEC meeting in
November, he doubled down, promoting an
"Asia-Pacific dream".
Meanwhile, frenzy is the norm. Apart from
the two monster, US$725 billion gas deals -
Power of Siberia and Altai pipeline - and a
recent New Silk Road-related offensive in
Eastern Europe, [4] virtually no one in the
West remembers that in September Chinese
Prime Minister Li Keiqiang signed no fewer
than 38 trade deals with the Russians,
including a swap deal and a fiscal deal,
which imply total economic interplay.
A case can be made that the geopolitical
shift towards Russia-China integration is
arguably the greatest strategic maneuver of
the last 100 years. Xi's ultimate master
plan is unambiguous: a Russia-China-Germany
trade/commerce alliance. German
business/industry wants it badly, although
German politicians still haven't got the
message. Xi - and Putin - are building a new
economic reality on the Eurasian ground,
crammed with crucial political, economic and
strategic ramifications.
Of course, this will be an extremely rocky
road. It has not leaked to Western corporate
media yet, but independent-minded academics
in Europe (yes, they do exist, almost like a
secret society) are increasingly alarmed
there is no alternative model to the
chaotic, entropic hardcore neoliberalism/casino
capitalism racket promoted by the Masters of
the Universe.
Even if Eurasian integration prevails in the
long run, and Wall Street becomes a sort of
local stock exchange, the Chinese and the
emerging multipolar world still seem to be
locked into the existing neoliberal model.
And yet, as much as Lao Tzu, already an
octogenarian, gave the young Confucius an
intellectual slap on the face, the "West"
could do with a wake-up call. Divide et
impera? It's not working. And it's bound to
fail miserably.
As it stands, what we do know is that 2015
will be a hair-raising year in myriad
aspects. Because from Europe to Asia, from
the ruins of the Roman empire to the
re-emerging Middle Kingdom, we all still
remain under the sign of a fearful,
dangerous, rampantly irrational Empire of
Chaos.
Notes:
1. See
here.
2.
What Putin is not telling us, Russia
Today, December 18, 2014.
3.
Eurasian Integration vs. the Empire of Chaos,
TomDispatch, December 16, 2014.
4.
China set to make tracks for Europe,
China Daily, December 18, 2014.
China's Li cements new export corridor into
Europe, Channel News Asia, December 16,
2014.
Pepe Escobar's
latest book, just out, is
Empire of Chaos. Follow him on
Facebook.
Pepe Escobar is the author of
Globalistan: How the Globalized World is
Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble
Books, 2007),
Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during
the surge (Nimble Books, 2007), and
Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books,
2009).
He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.
Copyright 2014 Asia Times Online (Holdings)
Ltd
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