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Drumbeat sounds familiar
By Simon Tisdall
03/07/06 "The
Guardian" -- - George Bush's explanation of his
volte-face over a proposed Iran-India gas pipeline project appeared
slightly disingenuous. "Our beef with Iran is not the pipeline," the
US president said on Saturday after withdrawing previous objections
and giving the go-ahead to Washington's new friends in Delhi. "Our
beef with Iran is the fact that they want to develop a nuclear
weapon."
But US fears about Iranian nukes, discussed in Vienna yesterday, are
hardly the whole story. Washington is compiling a dossier of
grievances against Tehran similar in scope and seriousness to the
pre-war charge-sheet against Iraq. Other complaints include Iranian
meddling in Iraq, support for Hamas in Palestine and Hizbullah in
Lebanon, and human rights abuses.
Mr Bush regularly urges Iranians to seize the "freedom they seek and
deserve". In Tehran's ministries, that sounds like a call for regime
change. He has ignored past Iranian offers of talks and tightened US
economic sanctions.
Official Washington's quickening drumbeat of hostility is beginning
to recall political offensives against Libya's Muammar Gadafy,
Panama's Manuel Noriega and Saddam Hussein, which all ended in
violence. Rightwing American media are urging action, deeming Iran
"an intolerable threat" that is the "central crisis of the Bush
presidency".
As was the case with Iraq, administration tub-thumping is
influencing public opinion - notwithstanding subsequent debunking of
many of its Iraq claims. Polls suggest many Americans are now
convinced Iran is the new public enemy No 1. Forty-seven percent
told Zogby International they favoured military action to halt its
nuclear activities.
While hopes of avoiding confrontation are not yet dead, warnings by
John Bolton, the US ambassador to the UN, that Iran could face
"painful consequences" over its nuclear activities were a reminder
of Mr Bush's repeated refusals to eschew armed force. Iranian
officials believe the US is determined to undermine and if possible
overthrow Iran's theocracy and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's
government - regardless of whether a nuclear compromise is reached.
That helps explain Tehran's hardline negotiating stance.
They cite a US decision to spend $75m (£43m) on funding potential
Iranian opposition forces, including NGOs, trade unions and human
rights groups, and local language propaganda broadcasts - tactics
pioneered in Serbia, Georgia and Ukraine. Iran accuses the US of
stirring discontent among its Kurdish, Baluch and Azeri minorities,
suspicions fed by a US marine corps investigation to gauge the
strength of opposition to the central government among non-Persian
groups. Tehran also believes the US is using the People's
Mujahideen, an anti-regime group once backed by Saddam and blamed
for many terrorist attacks, for intelligence-gathering and
destabilisation.
It recently demanded British troops quit Basra after linking them to
unrest among Arab Iranians in Khuzestan, abutting south-east Iraq.
Britain has rejected the claims.
The "EU three" - Britain, France and Germany - remain focused on the
nuclear controversy rather than broader Iran-related issues. A
senior British official said they would, if necessary, support
"graduated" pressure on Iran via the UN security council, "possibly
leading to trade restrictions or more likely, travel and financial
sanctions on individuals". But the official said the Europeans "do
not have a clear view of what we will do at a later stage" should
Iran refuse to bend.
In the absence of a Vienna breakthrough, this lack of an agreed
strategy may encourage US hawks, egged on by Israel, to seize the
initiative - even at the risk of an Iraq-style split with Europe.
They have been biding their time for three years. Now they want
action. For starters, Mr Bolton is expected to seek a 30-day UN
deadline for Iran to back down or face counter-measures.
Email - s.tisdall@guardian.co.uk
© Guardian Newspapers Limited 2006
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