By Kamal Alam
April 02, 2023:
Information Clearing House
-- "MEE"
- Earlier this month, China
brokered a deal to restore diplomatic
relations between
Saudi Arabia and
Iran for the first time since 2016, aiming
to settle a longstanding bilateral dispute.
While it is too early to determine whether
this will lead to a complete thaw in the
four-decade rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran,
an immediate beneficiary of the Chinese-led
initiative is
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, whose
diplomatic clout in the region has been
further strengthened.
Within days of the deal with Iran, the
Saudis announced a restoration of diplomatic
ties with the Syrian government, and Assad took
another trip to the
UAE, following his
visit to Oman a month earlier. Indeed, Assad
has slowly but surely re-emerged on the
diplomatic scene, despite
US pressure on the region to isolate
Damascus.
Now, as China takes a more assertive economic
diplomacy role in the Middle East, Syria remains
key to Saudi Arabia’s desire to cool regional
tensions.
Saudi Arabia presented the last obstacle to
Syria’s return as a key player in the Arab world
- a thaw that began
with a hug between the Bahraini and Syrian
foreign ministers at the United Nations in
2018.
While Riyadh has watched from the sidelines
as other Arab countries embraced Damascus, it
has finally joined the fray, perhaps on the back
of the Chinese- and Russian-led realignment of
the Middle East.
Two years ago, I
wrote an article for Middle East Eye about
the history of Saudi-Syrian ties, and the
centrality of this relationship with regards to
stabilising
Lebanon. Despite major differences, they
have always managed to maintain an amicable
working relationship, which peaked during their
anti-Saddam
alliance in the first Gulf War, and again
when Riyadh
welcomed Assad several years after the 2005
assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister
Rafik Hariri.
The time has now come again for another
warming in Saudi-Syrian relations.
Flexing muscles
Basem Shabb, a former Lebanese MP and close
adviser to former Prime Minister Saad Hariri,
has written about how Syria has quietly
upped its game in mainstream Lebanese politics,
strengthening support for groups that back the
Syrian regime over groups pushing Iran’s main
agenda in Lebanon.
It is important to note that Syria has always
pursued its own interests in Lebanon, rather
than those of Iran.
Syria does not always toe Iran’s line,
especially with regards to Lebanon and Iraq. It
is this aspect of Syria’s policy that appeals
most to the Saudis.
A US State Department
assessment in 2020 raised concerns that
Damascus was regaining its pre-eminent place in
Lebanese politics. The Saudis, who washed their
hands of Lebanon a few years ago, would welcome
Syria’s help to stabilise the country -
especially after the delay over
an Egyptian-led gas deal to which Syria
remains the key. Here, China’s emergence as an
important regional player offers another
alternative, shifting away from the era of US
hegemony.
The Chinese have been eyeing
Lebanese ports as part of Beijing’s regional
investment strategy, and China has
welcomed the Saudi-Syria rapprochement,
arranging a
timely meeting in Damascus to further its
own Syria diplomacy. Syria was the first
conflict in which China flexed its muscles at
the UN Security Council, helping Russia
to veto almost all major US-led resolutions
over the past decade.
I wrote
in 2017 about how China for the first time
took an active role in a Middle East conflict in
terms of non-kinetic
military operations in Syria, as it
participated in the Astana process and other
venues to make sure it was
on-side with Damascus, pursuing an end to
the conflict. Chinese economic interests in
Syria date back
to 2004, with key strategic areas around
Syria and Lebanon ultimately becoming part of
its Belt and Road Initiative.
In light of the Iran-Saudi deal, Syria will
be a key contested region - and Chinese economic
diplomacy could work to Riyadh’s advantage.
Syria analyst Camille Otrakji says the current
Saudi leadership has shown greater agility than
its predecessors, telling MEE: “It is possible
that after years of striving to establish an
Iran-free regional order, the Saudis realise
that they need a new strategy … The Saudis and
the Turks both have come to the conclusion that
to restore relative normalcy and stability, [the
best option] is to step back from the Syrian
playing field.”
With the Saudis joining the Beijing-led
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
formally on Wednesday, it also shows a
further drift by the Saudis into a non-aligned
status rather than just the US sphere of
influence, which they have been in since the
founding of the kingdom.
At the heart of the Saudi-Iran deal is
economic stability, with both
the Chinese and
the Saudis proposing investments in Iran.
Syria is the key arena where Iran and Saudi
Arabia have clashed over the past decade, and
despite mutual mistrust, the Saudis have
historically been able to iron out their
problems with Damascus.
Today, with the US distracted by Ukraine and
having no coherent Syria strategy, Saudi Arabia
is welcoming Chinese efforts to help end the
regional conflict.
Views expressed in this article are
solely those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of Information Clearing House.
in this article are
solely those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of Information Clearing House.
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