Ukraine - A 'Counteroffensive' That Was
Destined To Fail
By Moon Of Alabama
September 01, 2022:
Information Clearing House
-- "MOA"
- Yesterday Ukraine launched some kind of
offensive in the general Kherson region north of
the Dnieper.
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News of the success is murky. This morning
Dima of the Military Summary Channel made a
special report (vid) which listed the claims
of both sides. His map drawings showed at least
five directions of attacks.
![](https://www.moonofalabama.org/13i/dimakherson-s.jpg)
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The Ukraine side claimed to have taken a
handful of small villages near the former
frontline. The Russian conceded the Ukraine had
taken three or so but said that two of them were
recovered over night.
Also this morning the Defense Ministry of
Russia
listed losses of the Ukrainian side. (Link
goes to the Russian language report on the Rybar
Telegram channel):
As a result of the defeat of the Ukrainian
offensive carried out on the personal orders
of Zelensky in the Nikolaev-Krivoy Rog and
other directions, the enemy suffered
large-scale losses.
▪️The effective actions of the Russian
group of troops destroyed 48 tanks, 46
infantry fighting vehicles, 37 other armored
fighting vehicles, 8 pickup trucks with
heavy machine guns and more than 1200
Ukrainian military personnel in a day.
It is a bit early to speak of defeat as the
Ukrainian attacks continue. The total strength
of the Ukrainian side is probably two divisions
worth which means some 30.000+ soldiers.
The losses of 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers are
therefore not yet significant. The fighting at
the Donetsk front cost several hundred Ukrainian
lives each day. But the relative high losses of
tanks, IFVs and armored vehicles are very
notable. That equipment was enough for at least
three to five full battalions.
The losses can be explained by the flat open
steppe in the area. There are very few wooded or
build up areas that would allow tanks to hide.
It is ideal for the defending side as long range
anti-tank missiles can pick off the tanks before
they even know where the fire is coming from.
The Ukraine does not have many armored
vehicles left and has even difficulties to get
more of them from the 'west'. The countries
which still had Soviet equipment have already
given most of it to the Ukraine.
The Ukraine has also brought reserves from
Odessa to Kryvyi Rih (Russian: Krivoy Rog) to
protect it from an eventual Russian attack
should the offensive fail.
That will most likely be the case. I expect
everything to be back to its previous position
in a day or two. We may then see a Russian
attempt to break through the thinned out
Ukrainian lines in this or that other direction.
In yesterday's
background briefing by the Pentagon the
military doubt about this offensive was
palpable:
Q: Hi. Thanks for this.
I'm wondering if -- [omitted], I know you
can't give us any apparent details on this
counteroffensive. You said there's been an
uptick in fighting. Can you give us a sense
how big of an uptick and is this fighting
from both sides? Give us any sense of that
you can.
...
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Okay, Lita, thank
you.
So over the weekend, we saw a larger
number of artillery fires primarily coming
from the Ukrainians. And so, you know, I say
"larger" I wouldn't -- I wouldn't exaggerate
that but it's an increased amount of
artillery that we've seen coming from the
Ukrainians.
And then they have -- as you all know,
for the past couple of weeks, they have been
making some small advances in and around the
Kherson pocket for a while. So I don't want
to mislead you here and tell you that I
don't think the offensive is underway. I --
I would just -- I'd refer you to the
Ukrainians right now because we have seen
some offensive action in that area for the
past couple weeks.
And I'll pass it over to [omitted].
...
Q: Yeah, for the senior military official,
so you say you really can't give us any
particulars on this offensive. You see an
uptick in fighting. You say go to the
Ukrainians. The Ukrainians are saying this
is a significant counteroffensive. So
clearly, you're not willing to go that far,
correct?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Tom, I’m just
saying, I think the Ukrainians have a better
way of telling you what they're doing than
we do. I mean, even in the best case, you
know, I'm getting my reporting from the
Ukrainians. So --
Q: Well, are they telling you that it's a
significant counteroffensive? Because that's
kind of what they're saying publicly. Are
you getting the same thing? And if -- if
that's the case, why can't you tell us it's
a -- a counteroffensive?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Well, I just
don't -- I mean, listen, are they on the
offensive? I think they are. Is this a
counteroffensive? I don't know. And the
reason I tell you that is because, as I
said, over the past couple of weeks, we've
seen them making some offensive moves in and
around the Kherson pocket.
So listen, I'm -- you know, like you, I
would love to have perfect information here.
I think we'll get some more information over
the course of the next 24 to 36 hours.
Q: Yeah, but again, it's frustrating for
us because they're saying it's a big
counteroffensive and what we hear -- see --
hear from you guys is, like, an uptick in
fighting. Those two don't match,
you see?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: No, I'm with
you, Tom.
Q: Yeah.
To me this sounds like the military official
is not at all convinced that this a serious
offensive that makes sense.
That is likely because it does not make sense
and is just another waste of lives.
It is Zelinski's attempt to prove to the
'west' and the local public that Ukraine can be
successful and should receive continued support.
Four days ago the New York Times
said that Zelenski was "under pressure" to
launch the counteroffensive:
As the bloody artillery battle in Ukraine’s
east settles into a stalemate, the war
appears now to be a waiting game for a
long-promised Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The timing for any move to break the
deadlock has emerged as a pivotal strategic
decision for Ukraine’s government.
...
The initial target of any counterattack is
widely assumed to be Russian positions on
the western bank of the Dnipro River. Move
too soon, though, and the Ukrainian army may
prove unready and insufficiently armed to
ensure victory, military analysts say. Wait
too long, and political backing in Europe
may waver as energy prices soar.
Political pressure is mounting
for President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine
to make a move even as it remains unclear
whether his military has amassed the
necessary weaponry and manpower.
“The very difficult state of our economy,
the constant risks of air and missile
attacks and the general fatigue of the
population from the difficulties of war will
work against Ukraine” over time, Andriy
Zagorodnyuk, a former minister of defense,
wrote in the Ukrainska Pravda newspaper. He
said the military should be prepared to
advance, rather than defend.
“It makes no sense to drag out the war
for years and compete to see who will run
out of resources first,” he wrote.
On the same day another NYT piece
also
dug into the issue:
The timing for any such attack has emerged
as a pivotal decision for Ukraine’s
government. Both sides are preparing for a
protracted war, but Ukraine has greater
incentive to try to avoid it with
potentially risky maneuvers as early as this
fall — before the rainy season turns the
countryside into impassable bogs, or energy
shortages and soaring costs undermine
European support.
“An offensive is risky,” said Michael
Kofman, the director of Russian studies at
C.N.A., a research institute in Arlington,
Va., assessing Ukraine’s options.
“If it fails, the outcome could affect
external support,’’ he said. “On the other
hand, Kyiv likely sees this as a window of
opportunity, beyond which lies the
uncertainty of a protracted war against a
Russian army that has had time to entrench.”
...
But several military analysts say
there is a disconnect between Ukrainian
civilian leaders, pressing for a major
victory, and military leaders who want to
ensure they have sufficient troops and
combat power before conducting a major
offensive.
...
“There’s a desire to show international
partners that their support will enable
Ukraine to win, not just hold on,” said Jack
Watling, a senior research fellow at the
Royal United Services Institute in London,
who just returned from Ukraine. “And there
is an expectation from the Ukrainian people
they’ll be able to liberate their
territory.”
But he cautioned, “a military
offensive needs to be based on conditions on
the battlefield,” not in the political
arena.
In my view the offensive was launched at the
wrong time and with too few troops along too
many axes.
Two month ago the Ukrainians had already
assembled a decent force in the Kherson area. It
then started to loudly talk about the upcoming
offensive. Instead it should have attacked
immediately along one or two axes to make at
least some gain.
After the loud talk the Russians reinforced
their side in the area. At the same time they
launched an offensive in the Donetsk region. The
Ukrainians had to move some of the units
prepared for the Kherson offensive to the
Donetsk region to prevent a deeper Russian
penetration into that frontline. Other units,
waiting for the order to attack in the Kherson
region, were mauled by Russian long range
artillery strikes.
When its forces were assembled the Ukrainian
military should have attacked immediately. The
long wait made the situation more difficult. To
break the reinforced Russian lines now would
have taken more troops than were available.
I am sure that the Ukrainian military knew
that this offensive would fail.
For political reasons Zelenski ordered them
to launch it anyway. There are now another
1,000+ Ukrainian and Russian lives lost for
nothing other then some sensational headlines
and political optics.
Views expressed in this article are
solely those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of Information Clearing House.
in this article are
solely those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of Information Clearing House.
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