July 25, 2022:
Information Clearing House
--If you’ve
blinked over the last month, you may have
missed it…
China and Russia are taking their
shot at the U.S. dollar. And as
often happens with consequential news in the
United States and the West, no one seems to
notice or even care.
Since the beginning of the year, I
have been writing about the possibility
of Russia and China challenging the US
dollar’s global reserve status. Now, it’s
happening.
It shouldn’t be any surprise to those
paying attention that Russia and China are
strengthening their economic ties amidst
continued Western sanctions on Russia as a
result of the country’s war in Ukraine.
What may surprise some people,
however, is that Russia and the BRICS
countries, including Brazil, Russia, India,
China, and South Africa, are
officially working on their own “new global
reserve currency,”
RT reported in late June. Nobody even
seemed to notice.
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“The issue of creating an
international reserve currency based on a
basket of currencies of our countries is
being worked out,” Vladimir Putin
said at the BRICS business forum last month.
And of course, as Russia has been cut off
from the SWIFT system, it is also pairing
with China and the BRIC nations to develop
“reliable alternative mechanisms for
international payments” in order to “cut
reliance on the Western financial system.”
In the meantime, Russia is also taking
other steps to strengthen the alliance
between BRIC nations, including re-routing
trade to China and India,
according to CNN:
President Vladimir Putin said
Wednesday that Russia is rerouting trade
to "reliable international partners"
such as Brazil, India, China and South
Africa as the West attempts to sever
economic ties.
"We are actively engaged in
reorienting our trade flows and foreign
economic contacts towards reliable
international partners, primarily the
BRICS countries," Putin said in his
opening video address to the
participants of the virtual
BRICS Summit.
In fact, “trade between Russia and the
BRICS countries increased by 38% and reached
$45 billion in the first three months of the
year” this year, the report says. Meanwhile,
Russian crude sales to China have hit record
numbers during Spring of this year, edging
out Saudi Arabia as China’s primary oil
supplier.
"Together with BRICS partners, we are
developing reliable alternative mechanisms
for international settlements," Putin said.
Putin continued, stating last month:
"Contacts between Russian business circles
and the business community of the BRICS
countries have intensified. For example,
negotiations are underway to open Indian
chain stores in Russia [and to] increase the
share of Chinese cars, equipment and
hardware on our market."
In June, Putin also accused the West of
ignoring"the basic principles of [the]
market economy" such as free trade. "It
undermines business interests on a global
scale, negatively affecting the wellbeing of
people, in effect, of all countries," he
said.
President Xi echoed Putin’s sentiments,
according to a June writeup by
Bloomberg:
“Politicizing, instrumentalizing and
weaponizing the world economy using a
dominant position in the global
financial system to wantonly impose
sanctions would only hurt others as well
as hurting oneself, leaving people
around the world suffering.
Those who obsess with a position of
strength, expand their military
alliance, and seek their own security at
the expense of others will only fall
into a security conundrum.”
The developments obviously further my
long held belief that a gold backed global
reserve currency is on its way - something I
have been writing about for months.
I’m also stunned that nobody seems to
care that arguably the largest shift on the
global macroeconomic playing field over the
last half century may be taking place.
Sure, under the context of the conflict
in Ukraine, the news may seem “par for the
course” of sorts, which may result in the
media and the financial world downplaying
it. But put this piece of information out
there on its own, without context - that
there is a coordinated global challenge
taking place to the U.S. dollar - and it
would be the biggest news story in decades.
Imagine if China and Russia just dropped
this out of nowhere? Now, remember that both
countries have been working on, and
preparing for, this situation for
years.
I mean, holy hell, look at Russia’s
Treasury holdings as far back as 2018:
As I’ve noted before, Russia was also
increasing its holdings of gold over the
same period:
And this headline came out in 2020, just
months before Russia’s invasaion of Ukraine
Does anyone think it’s a coincidence?
Nikkei
wrote at the time:
Dedollarization has been a priority
for Russia and China since 2014, when
they began expanding economic
cooperation following Moscow's
estrangement from the West over its
annexation of Crimea. Replacing the
dollar in trade settlements became a
necessity to sidestep U.S. sanctions
against Russia.
Ergo, it seems to me that the BRIC
nations understand exactly how precarious of
a financial situation the U.S. - and our
dollar - is in. Despite the dollar’s recent
strengthening, these nations have been in
the midst of a
multi-decade-long plan to de-dollarize.
Even before the Ukraine conflict started,
both China and Russia were stockpiling gold
and working on denominating transactions
outside of the U.S. dollar. It was another
“secret” that was out there in the open.
Remember how “insane” this headline was
just 6 months ago
when I predicted it for the first time?
Everybody told me that it was a stretch.
Today, it isn’t so much anymore.
Meanwhile, since the BRIC conference,
ties between Russia and China continue to
tighten, with Japan
even warning this week about the pair’s
“strengthening of military ties” - at the
same time China has closely scrutinized a
planned trip by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
to Taiwan.
Japan
said this past week:
“As a result of the current
aggression, it is possible that Russia’s
national power in the medium- to
longterm may decline, and the military
balance within the region and military
cooperation with China may change.
In the vicinity of Japan, Russia has
made moves to strengthen cooperation
with China, such as through joint bomber
flights and joint warship sails
involving the Russian and Chinese
militaries, as well as moves to portray
such military cooperation as strategic
coordination.”
Japan said this alignment between the two
countries “must continue to be closely
watched in the future.”
While the economic gears turn behind the
scenes, China is also becoming incresingly
cagey about Taiwan. The country “has sent
warplanes into Taiwan's self-declared air
defense zone identification zone many times
in recent months,” according to CNN, and
recently alluded to the idea of a no-fly
zone over Taiwan ahead of a planned visit by
Nancy Pelosi.
President Biden
commented on Pelosi’s travel plans this
week, stating: “The military thinks it’s not
a good idea right now. But I don’t know what
the status of it is.”
We’re sure Pelosi will wind up going
anyway. Remember, this is the same woman who
danced her way through Chinatown while Covid
was spreading to the U.S., from China, to
prove she wasn’t racist.
I can hear her en route to Taiwan now: