Early in the war, many in Ukraine and
the West were buoyed by the clear
failure of the Kremlin’s army to conquer
Kyiv and force the government to
surrender, as evidenced by Russia’s
shocking
loss of thousands of tanks and other
armored vehicles—and
tens of thousands of its
troops—especially on the Kyiv and
Kharkiv fronts. The Ukrainian Armed
Forces, in contrast, fought heroically
and effectively, performing
well above expectations. In
response, the United States and dozens
of other Western countries accelerated
the delivery of weapons and ammunition
to Kyiv.
As much as Ukraine welcomes every piece
of equipment, however, the deliveries
have been a clunky mixture of modern and
antiquated, Western and Soviet. Numerous
systems require specialized training,
specific maintenance systems, and
ammunition of various calibers that are
often mutually exclusive to each weapon
system. All of this requires a massive
and complicated logistics system to keep
the weapons supplied and functioning—one
that doesn’t currently exist in Ukraine
and continues to be improvised.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian leaders have been
clamoring for more weapons, warning that
the quantities sent or pledged so far
are grossly insufficient. Ukrainian
Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak
wrote last week that in addition to
the equipment already promised, Ukraine
still needs “1000 howitzers caliber 155
mm; 300 MLRS [multiple launch rocket
launchers]; 500 tanks; 2000 armored
vehicles; [and] 1000 drones.” The scale
of these requests illustrates how
difficult it will be for the Ukrainian
forces to hold out against the Russian
onslaught in their country’s east, let
alone turn the tide to defeat it.
Since Russia changed tack and
prioritized firepower over maneuver in
the Donbas fight, its forces have been
pummeling Ukrainian troops with upwards
of a staggering
70,000 shells per day and a
significant number of heavy rockets.
Additionally, Russian President Vladimir
Putin’s forces are conducting as many as
300 air sorties over Ukraine per
day. Ukraine, in contrast, is firing an
estimated
one-tenth as many shells—and
sometimes flies only
three to five air sorties per day.
This disparity in firepower is
driving Ukrainian casualties beyond what
we believe it can sustain, with up to
200 soldiers reportedly killed each
day and around
500 wounded. The toll on Kyiv’s
equipment is just as devastating: Most
of the Soviet-era equipment Ukraine
possessed at the beginning of the war
has been destroyed, and it has
run out of entire categories of
ammunition. No military can sustain
those kinds of losses and continue to
offer effective resistance—as evidenced
by Ukraine’s recent
loss of several towns and villages
to the Russian invaders and
near-encirclement
on the Donbas front.
Policies in Kyiv and Washington seem
to ignore these battlefield realities.
Last week,
Zelensky reiterated his plans to
regain all Ukrainian territory lost to
Russia since the first invasion in
2014—currently about
20 percent of Ukraine. On the
prospects for a negotiated settlement,
he
added one day later that “there is
no time for talking” to Russia.
U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary
Kathleen Hicks recently said the
Pentagon is “well
equipped” to support Ukraine for
five, 10, or 20 years into the future.
Yet our own substantial experience
deployed in combat leads us to wonder if
Ukraine can hold out for five to 10
months, much less one or two
decades.
While there is still time, and Kyiv
still controls 80 percent of its
territory, a change in U.S. policy would
provide a chance to save Ukrainian lives
and prevent further territorial losses.
At minimum, the Biden administration
should de-emphasize its
goals of weakening Russia and
instead prioritize diplomacy, helping
Kyiv and Moscow find a negotiated end to
the war. It is in the U.S. national
interest to prevent the war from
escalating in Ukraine or expanding
beyond it. Avoiding the risk of direct
U.S.-Russian or NATO-Russian
confrontation is vital because of the
dire global consequences of a nuclear
war. The world is already at a greater
risk of nuclear war than at any time
since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
By Tulsi Gabbard, a former member
of the U.S. House of Representatives,
and Daniel L. Davis, a senior fellow at
Defense Priorities.