By Ray McGover
December 07, 202:
Information Clearing House
-- "Anti
War" -
On May 25, 2021,
when the date of June 16 was announced for the
summit between Presidents Biden and Putin, it seemed
a good idea to waste no time in warning Biden and
his neophyte advisers that a major shift in the
“world correlation of forces” (to borrow an old
Soviet term) was bound to heavily influence the June
talks. China, of course, would not be taking part in
the bilateral talks, but it would be very much
present.
In other words, a half-year ago, we worried:
"Whether or not Official Washington fully
appreciates the gradual – but profound – change in
America’s triangular relationship with Russia and
China over recent decades, what is clear is that the
US has made itself into the big loser. The triangle
may still be equilateral, but it is now, in effect,
two sides against one. …
"There is little sign that today’s US
policymakers have enough experience and intelligence
to recognize this new reality and understand the
important implications for US freedom of action.
Still less are they likely to appreciate how this
new nexus may play out on the ground, on the sea or
in the air."
It was clear that the new phenomenon of
Russia-China entente would dwarf the significance of
less important issues; and we could not be sure
Biden would be appropriately informed.
Reader financed- No
Advertising - No Government Grants -
No Algorithm - This
Is Independent Media
The Chinese “Squeeze”
Clearly, President Biden did not get the word –
or maybe forgot. Here is the bizarre way Biden
described, at his post-summit presser, his
decades-behind-the-times approach to Putin on China:
"Without quoting him [Putin] – which I don’t
think is appropriate – let me ask a rhetorical
question: You got a multi-thousand-mile border with
China. China is seeking to be the most powerful
economy in the world and the largest and the most
powerful military in the world."
At the airport, Biden’s co-travelers did their
best to whisk him onto the plane, but failed to stop
him from sharing more of his views on China – this
time on China’s strategic "squeezing" of Russia:
"Let me choose my words. Russia is in a very,
very difficult spot right now. They are being
squeezed by China."
Is President Biden still out to lunch on this key
issue? Have his rising-junior advisers sought out
new textbooks, updated from the ones they may have
read in the 70s and 80s, and learned that Russia and
China have never been closer – that, indeed, they
have what amounts to a virtual military alliance?
This would seem to be an important thing to make
sure Biden learns – and remembers. It would be
particularly good if someone alerted him shortly
before his virtual meeting with Putin tomorrow
(Tuesday).
Here is my attempt to do so shortly after the June
summit.
"Old Chinese Hand and Old Russian One"
Having long since reached "alumni" status,
Ambassador Chas Freeman and I have had the benefit
of watching Sino/Russian relations for decades.
Indeed, Amb. Freeman, as most readers are well
aware, was a main practitioner, having interpreted
for President Richard Nixon on his historic visit to
Beijing in February 1972, and having played a key
role in formulating the one-China policy that has
kept the peace – at least until now. I headed CIA’s
Soviet Foreign Policy Branch in the early 70s; our
analysts played an important role in concluding the
SALT agreements in May 1972 (together with highly
technical specialists who gave Nixon the crucial:
Yes, we can verify if you trust).
Much more recently, in July 2020, when
ex-Secretary of State Pompeo played court jester
enunciating a new U.S. policy toward China and
critiquing the old,
Chas and I collaborated on this.
In an email exchange over the weekend, I asked
for any additional views Amb. Freeman might have, as
Biden prepares for his virtual summit with Putin on
Tuesday. With Chas’s permission I offer them below:
"… It is clear that the Sino-Russian entente is
expanding under the pressure of US threats to both.
Nothing will happen on either Taiwan or Ukraine
without coordination between Beijing and Moscow. But
our fantasy authoritarian plot to counter the US
ideology of democracy is being made real by the
“democracy summit.” This has sought to weaponize
Taiwan ideologically against China and led to the
unprecedented
joint Sino-Russian statement that attempts to
puncture our pretensions and oppose our messianism
about democracy.
"My guess is that there will now be a much
larger permanent Russian military presence on the
Ukraine border but that, barring provocations by
nutcases in Ukraine, there will be no invasion.
Instead, Russia will settle for having achieved a
firm basis for a strategic surprise, when and if
that becomes necessary. Just so, China has probably
made no decision about Taiwan but is preparing the
battlespace for the moment it may have to do so.
Both China and Russia are acting in parallel to
develop military options they had not previously
sought. … regarding Russia’s [Mach 9] Zircon
missile: it is paralleled by China’s effort to
develop a much more credible nuclear strike
capability against the US"
Why Not Try a Little Diplomacy?
Always the diplomat, Chas may harbor hope that
President Biden’s promise to end "relentless war"
and start "relentless diplomacy" may yet take on
flesh and not remain relentless rhetoric. Freeman
offered these further thoughts on what the latest
Chinese and Russian moves could lead to, given a
willing partner:
"These moves are a classic diplomatic use of a
military threat to compel a negotiated reduction of
tensions. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov paralleled
China’s to diplomat Wang Yi at Rome, when Lavrov
later met Blinken in Stockholm. Wang Yi demanded
that the US side commit to ‘a genuine one-China
policy, not a fake one, that the US fulfill its
commitments to China, and that the US truly
implement the one-China policy, instead of saying
one thing but doing another.’
"Lavrov paralleled Putin in demanding’
reliable and long-term security guarantees,’
incorporating ‘specific agreements that would
exclude any further NATO moves eastward and the
deployment of weapons systems that threaten us in
close vicinity to Russian territory,’ adding that
Moscow would need not just verbal assurances, but
‘legal guarantees.’"
Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, a
publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the
Saviour in inner-city Washington. His 27-year career
as a CIA analyst includes serving as Chief of the
Soviet Foreign Policy Branch and preparer/briefer of
the President’s Daily Brief. He is co-founder of
Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity
(VIPS).
Registration is necessary to post comments.
We ask only that you do not use obscene or offensive
language. Please be respectful of others.