January 26, 2021 "Information Clearing House" -TEL AVIV: Israel has said openly that it will attack Iran if the U.S eases sanctions against the Shiite regime and agrees to go back to the nuclear agreement the Jewish state claims is “the biggest hoax in recent history.”

“Israel needs to know — and fast — whether Washington plans to stop Iran’s race to the bomb or take some action to do this,” a source told BD.

Israeli intelligence is closely watching the Iranian nuclear facilities. “The people who need to know are updated by the hour” the source said.

Israel allegedly attacked another Iranian target in Syria on Jan 21 and such attacks are likely to continue. “This pressure will continue and grow, as a preparation for a direct attack on targets in Iran,” the Israeli source here added.

Ministers of the Likud Party said earlier this week that the new US administration must not “appease” Iran, and warned Tehran that the Jewish state will not tolerate its military presence in Syria or accept its plans to build a nuclear bomb.

One of the more direct warnings came from Likud minister Tzachi Hanegbi , part of Bibi Netanyahu’s inner circle. He said Israel could attack Iran’s nuclear program if the United States rejoined the nuclear deal.

“If the United States government rejoins the nuclear deal — and that seems to be the stated policy as of now — the practical result will be that Israel will again be alone against Iran. By the end of the deal Iran will have received a green light from the world, including the United States, to continue with its nuclear weapons program,” Hanegbi said in an interview with Israel Kan news channel.

A top Israeli expert on Iran and the Arab world, Mordechai Kedar, told Breaking D that he is sure Washington will ignore all the Israel requests. “The new administration will do everything to bring Iran back into the family of nations, without really understand their real goals.”

Kedar added that this will cause great fears in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Israel will be left alone to act in open and covert actions against the Iranian nuclear program.

Kedar explained the Iranian motivation: “They saw what happened to Libya and Muammar Gaddafi after he stopped his nuclear program while at the same time, they see how the world gently treats North Korea now that is has a bomb. The lesson for Teheran is very clear.”

l, as US President-elect Joe Biden has indicated he plans to do.

In recent months Iran has signaled that it wants the end of the sanctions and has begun enriching uranium to a level of 20%, in violation of its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). At the same time, Iran has emphasized that its action is reversible, and stands ready to return to its obligations if the United States returns to the agreement and lifts sanctions.

All the experts here agree that any concession to Tehran will only accelerate this country’s race to the bomb.
“Look at the North Korean example. The same will happen in Iran “the sources said.

Iran has several objectives, says Yossi Kuperwasser, former director general of the Israel Ministry of Strategic Affairs and head of the research division of IDF Military Intelligence. The first is shortening the period needed to achieve adequate amounts of enriched uranium to a level higher than 90% for producing a nuclear explosive device. Iran currently has 4.5% enriched material that, if enriched further, will be sufficient for more than two nuclear explosive devices. The time it takes Iran to obtain the amount of uranium required for one device from the moment it decides to do so (“breakout”) is about two months, but if the enrichment to 20% is carried out only by the 1,000 centrifuges operating in the deep underground facility at Fordo, as the Iranians have done so far, it will take longer. “The Iranians recently installed cascades (sets) of advanced centrifuges at the underground facility in Natanz, and if 20% enrichment is also conducted there, the time needed to stockpile the material will be shortened,” he says in a comprehensive paper he wrote for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, a thinktank here.

“Enriching uranium to a level of 20% is also an expression of Iranian pluck. This is a move with no immediate risk of a strong reaction from the United States after the bluster of Tehran’s implied threats that did not materialize into a violent Iranian response against the Americans on the anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Suleimani. In this respect, the Iranian measure is intended to help divert public attention from the regime’s caution, which reflects recognition of its weakness and recoils from widespread confrontation with the United States, in light of U.S. warnings,” Kuperwasser writes.

The fourth and most important goal is to make it clear to incoming President Biden that his best option is to return quickly to the JCPOA.

The initial international response to the move has been slack. More attention is given to Iran’s hijacking of a South Korean tanker. Iran hopes to get Seoul to release frozen Iranian funds.

“For now, Iran will be happy to take that safe bet on the way to a toothless nuclear agreement that will give them not only one nuclear bomb but a large arsenal of nuclear weapons in a decade – without suffering militarily or economically. The declared willingness of Iran to return to the agreement testifies to its preferences.” Kuperwasser says.

What’s the right response? Send clear and unambiguous signals to Iran that any attempt to move towards the acquiring of enough enriched uranium for the production of nuclear weapons will be met harshly, with “all options on the table.” At the same time, economic pressure must continue to compel Iran to accept a new agreement that would scrupulously prevent any possibility of its stockpiling nuclear weapons. It must include full oversight everywhere and at all times, the lifting of restrictions on the duration of the agreement, the demolition of the enrichment facility in Fordo, and the inclusion of ballistic missiles in the deal.Now, how will the Biden administration react?

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