Whoever replaces Shinzo Abe, Japan’s slow rot
& subservience to US will likely continue
By Andre Vltchek
August 31, 2020 "Information
Clearing House" - Do not judge Shinzo
Abe’s Japan by those shiny new structures of the
Tokyo Osaka maglev project that will be soon
connecting the industrial heartland of Nagoya
with the capital city.
Japan's longest-serving prime minister is
stepping down, and the nation appears to be in
shock. But people are stunned simply because the
protocol was broken (even if unwell, ill, a
Japanese leader is not supposed to abandon his
post, abruptly), not because they are fearing or
expecting great political, economic, or social
upheavals. Japan is a country of continuity,
and, during the last decades, of gradual and
very slow decline.
Here, no one is expecting a revolution or
collapse of the system to take place. Japan is
the most stable and most predictable country on
earth. It is a staunch Western ally, without its
own foreign policy and very little of its own
opinion about the world. Several decades ago,
the country used to rebel – against capitalism
and the Western rule – but the administrations
of Koizumi and Abe broke the spine of
rebellions, gently, by wrapping up the nation
into a comfortable duvet, guaranteeing a mildly
sclerotic but still cozy existence for the
majority.
Shinzo Abe understands Japan. It is his
country, and he is its native son. He also
understands the establishment and how to deal
with the United States. He is more pro-market
than Trump, he despises North Korea more than
the West does, and he is ‘politely’ but
determinately antagonizing China.
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China has been his huge ‘psychological
problem’. It is because, in the past, Japan's
collaboration with Washington ‘used to pay off’,
at least in terms of the quality of life. Japan
used to be the second-largest economy in the
world, and its standard of living used to be
much higher than in most Western countries.
Then the Chinese economy bypassed that of
Japan. And soon after, Japanese travelers to the
People’s Republic of China began returning with
‘frightening tales’: Chinese cities and the
countryside were blooming. Chinese trains were
suddenly running faster than shinkansen, Chinese
museums and opera houses were more lavish than
those in Japan, and the public spaces and social
projects were dwarfing those in the increasingly
capitalist Japan. Poverty levels in China are
rapidly declining, while in Japan they are on a
slow rise.
This was not supposed to be like that,
Japanese people were exclaiming! Anti-Chinese
sentiments erupted, and Shinzo Abe did nothing
to stop them. On the contrary.
Instead of reforming and investing in the people,
the two mightiest capitalist countries on earth –
the United States under Trump and Japan under Abe –
turned against China with unimaginable force and
spite.
But under Abe, Japan began falling behind its
other ancient rival, South Korea, too. And its
arch-enemy, the country which Japan helped to
destroy after WWII, North Korea (DPRK), is still
there, undefeated and strong.
Instead of reimagining Japan, Shinzo Abe began
censoring the past of the country, as well as its
already submissive media.
My good friend, David McNeill, an Irish professor
at the prestigious Sofia University in Tokyo, who
also worked for the NHK, Japan’s national
broadcaster, once explained to me:
“There is so much self-censorship in Japanese
media, now. And the government is issuing
‘guidelines’, so called ‘Orange Book’, for instance:
how to treat anything that is ‘contagious’... or
anything related to history. There are instructions
to writers and translators. For instance: never use
words like Nanking Massacre, except when you quote
foreign experts. Or Yasukuni Shrine – never use the
word ‘controversial’ in connection to it.’ We cannot
write about ‘sexual slaves’ from WWII.”
It is a well-known fact that Japanese mass media
outlets do not take a position on any major world
events related to Russia, China or Iran, until
Western publications or networks such as the BBC or
CNN provide ‘guidance’. I used to work for one of
the major Japanese newspapers, when covering
‘sensitive’ international topics we had to seek
permission to publish from the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs.
Mr. Taira Takemoto, a civil engineer based in
Osaka wrote for this report:
“Frankly speaking, Abe has spent lots of
effort selling Japan to the US, with President Obama
or President Trump. There are many pending issues
that need to be sorted out from the 1960 US-Japan
Security Treaty to the issue of numerous US bases to
trade to an increasing hostility of Japan and the US
toward China, as much as DPRK. In the international
arena, I do think he has subjugated Japan to the
hands of the West, in particular the US.”
Yet, forget about Tokyo for a while.
To understand today’s Japan, visit its central part,
urban and rural, and you will understand how deep
the rot under Abe was. Outside cities like Suzuka or
Yokkaichi in Mie Prefecture, rice fields and bamboo
forests are dotted with rotting carcasses of cars.
Many houses are in disrepair. The bus lines are
abandoned. Main roads are lined up with unhealthy
fast food joints, not unlike those in the US
suburbia. Many public playgrounds for children are
unmaintained or gone.
A once glorious cultural life has been decaying,
even before the Covid-19 pandemic. Huge cultural
centers, once the pride of the country, are mostly
empty, with tall grass growing between the
buildings.
Blue tents of homeless people are pitched in
almost all public parks of Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, and
other major cities.
Optimism is hard to come by.
Ms. Mikiko Aoki, a social worker, living in
Nagoya, has mixed feelings about Shinzo Abe:
“The news of [the] PM’s resignation surprised
us all as we did not see it coming. I guess we had
gotten used to him.
I think he has presided over some important
domestic works from the recovery of the big
earthquake in 2011 to the preparation of the hosting
of the postponed Tokyo Olympics. But the social
situations in Japan are no better than before. In
fact, I think they are worse, with the aging
population and less investment of the state on
public services and support to families in need. I
don't think there will be any different with a new
prime minister. After all, he will come from the
same party! Nothing changes.”
Geoffrey Gunn, a leading Australian historian and
Professor Emeritus at Nagasaki University, is
concerned about Japan's increasingly aggressive role
in the region:
“All changed when the Abe government
nationalized the Senkaku/Diaoyu [Islands]. The
status quo changed because now Japan declares that
there is actually no dispute over these so-called
disputed islands. Therefore, the Tokyo government
has angered China. China is indignant with this
change of the status quo.”
What is next should be much more
important now than who comes next.
Unfortunately, in Japan, there is no expectation
or hope for the essential political changes.
Political clans divided the territory, surprises are
very unlikely. Japan’s Communist Party has many
members, but it is always weak when it comes to
elections.
Japan will continue to decline, but extremely
slowly, one could even say ‘elegantly’. The standard
of living is still extremely high. The aging
population will continue enjoying generous pensions
and benefits but younger generations have been
tightening their belts. The era of lifetime
employment is over. Part-time jobs with no security
are the only future for millions of young graduates.
Confrontations with China, the Koreas, and to
some extent Russia will continue for years to come,
or at least for as long as the United States will be
igniting them.
Yoshihide Suga, 71 years old and often described
as a ‘lieutenant’ of Mr. Abe, is expected to ‘join
the race’ for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)
nomination. Were he to ‘win’, not much would change,
except that he may be less cautious regarding
Covid-19. Japan's hermetically closed borders could
open, and foreign tourists and business travelers
could be welcomed, a scenario not unlike that in
some European countries. Little more would change.
During our conversation, David McNeill passed an
unflattering verdict on Abe’s era:
“Abe will probably be seen as a political
caretaker rather than the conservative radical he
set out to be. The fact that he failed to rewrite
the hated constitution means he will probably see
the last seven and a half years as a failure.”
And Suga? David replied without hesitation:
“On this, I agree with Koichi Nakano who
wrote for the New York Times: ‘Suga will attempt to
continue Abe politics without Abe, like John Major
after Thatcher.’”
As for me, being locked out of Japan, one of my
homes, for the entire six months, is a tragedy.
Prime ministers come and go. Occupation armies
will, one day, disappear as well. Rotting car
carcasses will fully decompose. But the depth of
Japan, as well as its beauty, will never vanish.
Frustrated Japanophiles are bitching about the
country, but stay.
Andre Vltchek is
a philosopher, novelist, filmmaker and investigative
journalist. He has covered wars and conflicts in
dozens of countries. Six of his latest books are “New
Capital of Indonesia”,
“China
Belt and Road Initiative”,
“China
and Ecological Civilization”
with John B. Cobb, Jr., “Revolutionary
Optimism, Western Nihilism”, a
revolutionary novel “Aurora” and
a bestselling work of political non-fiction: “Exposing
Lies Of The Empire”.
View his other books here.
Watch Rwanda
Gambit, his
groundbreaking documentary about Rwanda and DRCongo
and his film/dialogue with Noam Chomsky “On
Western Terrorism”.
Vltchek presently resides in East Asia and Latin
America, and continues to work around the world. He
can be reached through his website,
his Twitter
and his
Patreon.
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