By Bonnie Kristian
August 21, 2020 "Information
Clearing House" - Elect Joe Biden,
former (Republican) Secretary of State Colin Powell
said in his Democratic National Convention
appearance Tuesday night, and he'll "restore
America's leadership in the world."
Powell's comments were followed by a video
touting Biden's friendship with the late Sen. John
McCain (R-Ariz.), another heavyweight GOP hawk.
Meanwhile, there's a
pro-Biden super PAC of George W. Bush
administration alumni, and Biden has racked up
support from a who's who of neoconservatives (Bill
Kristol,
Max Boot,
David Frum,
Jennifer Rubin), as commentators
left and
right have observed.
These alignments highlight an increasingly
undeniable fact of American politics in 2020: The
anti-war wing of both major parties is dead. Your
presidential choice is between war and war. There's
no faction of Republicans or Democrats which
combines real power with a durable, principled
interest in turning American foreign policy away
from global empire.
That's not to say no one in major-party politics
diverges from Washington's
standard-issue military interventionism. There's
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) challenging Trump
administration officials
in Senate hearings and seeking to counter
Trump's more hawkish influences
on the links. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah)
has pushed for the U.S. to exit Yemen's civil
war
and has slammed the administration's January
dalliance with executive warfare against Iran. Sen.
Tim Kaine (D-Va.)
tries every year to rein in abuses of the 2002
Authorization for Use of Military Force in Iraq, and
Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.)
has spent decades in lonely opposition to
military adventurism. As a Democratic presidential
candidate this past year, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)
was
more interested in peace than the party
establishment which has now twice rejected him as
their standard-bearer.
I don't mean to discount the good work of these
and other comparatively anti-war legislators. It is
not without effect. There's some evidence,
for example, that Paul steered Trump toward
decreasing the U.S. military footprint in Syria. But
neither should their ability to retain office
confuse us into thinking they have more control over
American foreign policy than they do.
The reality is these officials and anyone who
agrees with them have little meaningful power on
this issue — occasional influence, perhaps, but
certainly not power than can be reliably wielded.
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Paul's golf course chats with Trump may eke a win from time to time, but this is a lucky backchannel that can be dammed at any moment. It has no formal, institutional authority. This week's handwringing at Foreign Policy about the supposed ascendancy of "isolationism" on left and right alike is absurd, the foreign policy version of Tucker Carlson's bizarre claim of libertarian dominance of Washington. The main voices advocating greater restraint in American foreign affairs are not isolationist, and though they kick up quite a ruckus, they have little to no say over actual policy direction. How can anyone look at half a dozen wars and think we have an isolationism problem?
The Trump vs. Biden race only underlines this
state of affairs. Neither will give us a foreign
policy that can even plausibly be caricatured as
isolationism, Trump's
inane protectionism notwithstanding.
The president pays
occasional lip service to ending "endless wars"
and prioritizing diplomacy ("the greatest deals," in
his parlance), but his better impulses
are constantly overcome by his selfishness,
short attention span,
stupid militarism, and choice of counsel like
Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo. Trump has
brought us closer to open conflict with China,
squandered his chance for productive
negotiations with North Korea,
exacerbated tensions with Iran, and repeatedly
recommitted to enabling Saudi
war crimes. What few good foreign policy ideas
he hits upon are
almost always
happenstance byproducts of service to his own
political fortunes. He has yet to end a single war.
Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, are
more conventional liberal interventionists than
Trump, but the crucial assumption of intervention is
same. There are a few points for war critics to like
here, including Biden's
vehement opposition to the Obama-era surge in
Afghanistan, Harris's
objection to U.S. involvement in Yemen, and
their
plan to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal. Biden
pledges he'll "end the forever wars in
Afghanistan and the Middle East," but, like Trump,
lacks a specific plan to do so. Biden has
no apparent interest in Pentagon cuts, has hired
some
markedly hawkish advisers (are all those neocons
going to stick around, too?), and is trying
to out-hawk Trump on China. Certainly with Biden
we can expect more multilateral diplomacy and fewer
reckless tweets, but there's
little reason to think he'll break the broader
foreign policy patterns of the past 20 years.
From a purely political perspective, what's
curious about all this is the mutual foregoing of
potential electoral gain. Restraint rhetoric is
consistently popular — our last three presidents all
campaigned on it to some degree — and public opinion
is on a years-long
trend toward
wanting a
smaller U.S. military role abroad, one more
tailored to defending U.S. interests, narrowly
conceived. You'd think one party or the other would
espy an opportunity here.
Or perhaps both already have. Each candidate has
duly recited his lines about ending endless wars and
can truthfully point to his opponent's failure to do
likewise. And whoever takes office in January can
continue exactly that failure, probably without much
political consequence. He can deplore his bombs and
drop them too. Americans will remain preoccupied
with more immediate domestic concerns; Washington
will stay stuck in its interventionist consensus;
and those endless wars will live up to their name.
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