Russia is About
to Face its Biggest Test Yet in SyriaBy
Robert Fisk
April 22, 2020 "Information
Clearing House" - An American
reader tired of corona journalism sent me a plea this
week: “There must be plenty of cruelty being unleashed
by the gangsters-in-chief across the ‘Mideast’ that
simply isn’t making it into the headlines,” she wrote.
“Trump et al are either ignoring it or silently
condoning it.”
I doubt
if
Donald Trump is
ignoring it, but I do think he’s ignorant of it. And
condoning is a bit of a long word for the current
occupants of the White House. But here goes.
Russia,
we are now led to believe, is losing ground in
Libya as its most
recent ally, the Libyan-American – and erstwhile friend
of Washington – General Khalifa Haftar retreats from
Tripoli, losing even the city of Sabratha to the
“internationally recognised” government.
The
quotation marks are important because Turkey’s men and
materiel, including mercenaries from the wreckage of the
old
Free Syrian Army, have
been supporting al-Sarraj’s Tripoli government. The
Libyan war, just like the Syrian war and the Lebanese
civil war before that, is now a playground for quite a
lot of my American reader’s gangsters-in-chief.
The
Saudis and the Emirates and Egypt have been supporting
Haftar, whose anti-Islamist credentials appeal to the
al-Sisis and the al-Sauds of the Middle East. And of
course, Moscow has smiled upon Haftar. Once one of
Gaddafi’s trusted officers – until he was shuffled off
to fight and be captured in the colonel’s hopeless
fantasy war in Chad – and then a good friend of the CIA,
he was given the ultimate accolade once he re-emerged as
the swashbuckling general to save Libya: in 2017, Haftar
was freighted out to the Russian aircraft carrier
Admiral Kuznetzov as it cruised through the
Mediterranean en route from
Syria to the Baltic.
It was
one of Haftar’s finest hours. Courted by the Kremlin, he
sat in the carrier’s ward room where he staged a video
conference with the Russian defence minister. The
subject was what you might have expected it to be:
collaboration against international terrorism. That,
after all, is a matter in which
Vladimir Putin counts
himself as an expert – whether it be “terror” in
Chechenya, “terror” in the Ukraine, “terror” in Libya or
“terror” in Syria. There were promises of Russian
support over the following months but, save for a few
mercenaries, no Russian troops and no Russian hardware
based on Libyan soil.
If Libya was a playground, Haftar was more a
plaything than a serious contender for a Russian
alliance. Moscow was keeping its hand in the sands of
Libya – it would have to be consulted by the UN, the US,
and the “international community” in any discussion of
Libya’s future – but it was not associating Russian
power with Haftar’s Libyan National Army (which now even
has an Islamist component).
Sisi and the Saudi crown prince can pin their medals
on Haftar if they wish. Putin keeps his loyalty for
another army: the Syrian variety now partly surrounding
the truncated “rebel” province of Idlib. And, as we all
know, there is now a “ceasefire” along the front lines
as Turkish and Russian troops now supposedly patrol the
east-west Aleppo-Latakia highway through Idlib.
But the Turks are – and this is Russia’s suspicion –
encouraging those civilians associated with the Islamist
and nationalist rebels inside Idlib to block the
motorway. The roadblocks are certainly appearing, and
are preventing those famous joint patrols. But Turkey’s
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is not going to fight the Syrian
army or the Russians. The death of 37 of its soldiers
under Syrian-Russian air attack in Idlib was the most
serious event in Turkish military history since the
attempted coup against Erdogan in 2016. Warnings like
that have to be heeded.
Turkey’s real problem, of which the Russians are
acutely aware, is what to do with the jihadis and
Islamist groups who have been fighting alongside the
Assad opposition. They can no longer be trucked off to
the deserts of Saudi Arabia to cool their heels in the
Empty Quarter for a decade or two – one of the original
brainwaves. They certainly won’t be allowed to settle
down in Turkey, whose southern towns they have attacked.
And Turkey, the Syrians suspect, wants to keep those
areas of Syria – including hundreds of square miles
north and east of Aleppo – which its troops currently
occupy.