Still, the deal is welcome news and could be the beginning of the end of the longest conflict in U.S. history. American troops who have seen three, four, even five or more deployments to the Middle East may finally be able to come home — or not. If Esper’s grim vision becomes reality, they may soon be fighting China instead, embarking on a new and far larger conflict that would make Afghanistan look like child’s play, put U.S. security in unnecessary danger and plunge the world into lasting turmoil.

“I would like to [reduce troop levels in Afghanistan] because what I want to do is reallocate forces to” the Asia-Pacific region, Esper said while the U.S.-Taliban agreement was under negotiation. “All of these places where I can free up troops where I could either bring them home to allow them to rest and refit and retrain or/and then reallocate them [to the Asia-Pacific region] to compete with the Chinese, to reassure our allies, to conduct exercises and training.”

The defense secretary also has been conducting a “blank slate review” of U.S. force levels in Africa to the same end, “predominantly to reduce presence” there, he said, so the Pentagon can train its sights on China. And the Air Force described a flight by a nuclear-capable B-52 bomber over Somalia in February as, in part, a warning to China of engagement to come.