Putin Launches "War On US Shale" After Dumping
MbS & Breaking Up OPEC+
By Tyler Durden
OPEC+ is no more, after a torrid 24 hours in
which Russia overturned the balance of power in the
oil world, leaving the members of OPEC+ dazed and
confused, shocking Saudi which now faces social
unrest with the price of oil far below Riyadh's
budget, and - in a repeat of the
Thanksgiving 2014 OPEC massacre - sending oil
prices plunging by the most since the financial
crisis.
And now, Bloomberg has the stunning backstory
behind Friday's announcement that Russia is quitting
its output deal with OPEC and its allies, after last
week's Vienna summit meant to back a proposal by oil
producers to cut output collapsed, causing a 10%
plunge in oil prices, with some markets seeing their
biggest one-day falls since the financial crisis.
Driving a stake right through the heart of his
former OPEC colleagues, Russian Energy
Minister Alexander Novak
said that "considering the decision taken today,
from April 1 of this year onwards, neither we nor
any OPEC or non-OPEC country is required to make
(oil) output cuts."
With global fears over coronavirus already
severely impacting the oil market (down 30% since
the start of the year), and with the Russians
surprising oil ministers gathered at OPEC
headquarters by suddenly abandoning a plan meant to
keep oil prices steady, the biggest shock was felt
by the Saudis, because as Bloomberg puts it,
Putin has just effectively dumped crown prince MbS
to start a war on America's shale oil industry:
Alexander Novak told his Saudi Arabian
counterpart Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman that
Russia was unwilling to cut oil
production further. The Kremlin had
decided that propping up prices as the
coronavirus ravaged energy demand would be a
gift to the U.S. shale industry. The
frackers had added millions of barrels of oil to
the global market while Russian companies kept
wells idle. Now it was time to squeeze the
Americans.
After five hours of polite but fruitless
negotiation, in which Russia clearly laid out
its strategy, the talks broke down. Oil prices
fell more than 10%. It wasn’t just traders who
were caught out: Ministers were so
shocked, they didn’t know what to say, according
to a person in the room. The gathering
suddenly had the atmosphere of a wake, said
another.
Heading into Friday's critical session, OPEC had
been pushing for an additional 1.5 million barrels
per day of cuts, reducing production by 3.6% of the
world's total supply, which would have required
Russia and other non-OPEC states (but mostly Russia)
to contribute 500,000 bpd to the extra cut.
Bloomberg quotes Russian state-run think
tank Institute of World Economy and International
Relations president Alexander Dynkin
as saying, "The Kremlin has decided to
sacrifice OPEC+ to stop U.S. shale producers and
punish the U.S. for messing with Nord Stream 2."
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