Russia has an alternative already in place
in case it is cut from SWIFT — and
short-term setbacks would likely be followed
by long-term gains
By Matthew Allen
January 18, 2020 "Information
Clearing House" - Russia has
successfully developed and implemented an
alternative should it be excluded from
international banking systems,
according to a recent report.
As far as western sanctions go, by far
Russia's largest vulnerability is in its
banking sector, which for better or for
worse is tied to the hip with international
banking.
If Russia wishes to maintain the status
quo, there's not much that can be done about
this dependency. But shortly after sanctions
were announced in 2014, Moscow set out to
prepare for the worst-case scenario: being
cut off from the Worldwide Interbank
Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system.
In layman's terms, SWIFT allows for fast
and (allegedly) secure international
financial transfers. In fifty years when you
are able to use your Bank of America debit
card on the Moon (for a low fee of 2,000
moon rubles), it will be because of SWIFT or
a system similar to it.
There are two issues surrounding SWIFT
"cut-off" for Russia: 1. Is it likely to
happen? and 2. Is Russia prepared for it?
Regarding the first question: The reality
is that Washington's European poodles
realize that cutting Russia from SWIFT would
be a disaster. In 2015, European Central
Bank policymaker Ewald Nowotny "warned against
kicking Russian banks out of the SWIFT
payments transfer system as part of tighter
sanctions on Moscow."
According to Nowotny:
Such a move "we would see as
very problematic because it could
perhaps undermine confidence in this
system," the governor of Austria's
central bank told reporters in Brussels
after meeting European Commissioner
Pierre Moscovici.
Of course, this hasn't stopped Europe and
Washington from threatening to pull the
SWIFT plug.