British Election Heralds Collapse of
United Kingdom
By
Finian Cunningham
December 18, 2019 "Information
Clearing House"
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Boris Johnson is entitled to crack open
a few bottles of champagne after being
re-elected prime minister, with his
Conservative party winning a landslide
majority. But when the celebrations are
over, Britain is facing a thumping
hangover – from the inescapable fact
that half of the United Kingdom is now
on an irrevocable path of separatism and
independence.
Johnson has won a decisive mandate to
“get Brexit done”, at least from
London’s perspective. His party now has
a substantial parliamentary majority of
80 seats in the House of Commons which
will ensure delivery on his promise to
execute Britain’s departure from the
European Union on January 31. The actual
final severance will take another year
or two to complete because of
negotiations between London and Brussels
to definitively hammer out divorce
terms. But at least Johnson can claim
that he has consummated the final
journey to leave the EU on January 31, a
journey which began over three years ago
when Britons had originally voted for
Brexit in the 2016 referendum.
However, crucially, the Conservative
government’s mandate for Brexit only
applies to England and Wales. It was in
these two countries that saw the
significant swing of voters from the
opposition Labour party to Johnson’s
Tories. Thus, in effect, his
parliamentary majority stems from voters
in England and Wales.
By
total contrast, in Scotland and Northern
Ireland, the other two regions which
make up the United Kingdom, the voters
resoundingly rejected Johnson’s Brexit
plans and voted for parties wanting to
remain in the European Union. The
outcome is consistent with the 2016
referendum results when Scotland and
Northern Ireland both voted against
Brexit.
Moreover, the latest election results
have reinforced the call for
independence in both Scotland and
Northern Ireland.
The Scottish Nationalists swept the
election to enhance their already
existing majority. They now control
nearly 90 per cent of all seats in
Scotland. Party leader Nicola Sturgeon
says there is an unquestionable mandate
to hold a second referendum for Scottish
independence. The previous independence
referendum held in 2014 was defeated.
But Scottish nationalists claim that
popular support for their cause has
surged since the Brexit referendum in
2016. The Scots, by and large, do not
want to leave the EU. To remain in the
EU therefore necessarily means
separating from the United Kingdom and
its central government in London.
Boris Johnson has so far rejected calls
for holding a second Scottish
independence referendum. But his
position is untenable. Given the
parliamentary numbers for separation
stacking up in Scotland, he will have to
relent. Nationalists there are demanding
the holding of another plebiscite as
early as next year.
In
Northern Ireland, the election outcome
is perhaps even more momentous. For the
first time ever, nationalist parties
have a majority over pro-British
unionist parties. Mary Lou MacDonald,
the leader of Sinn Fein, the main
nationalist party, says that there is
now a clear mandate for holding a
referendum on the question of Northern
Ireland leaving the United Kingdom.
Given the breakthrough nationalist
majority in the latest election, that
would inevitably lead to a United
Ireland, from the northern state joining
with the existing southern state, the
Republic of Ireland.
Nationalists in Northern Ireland have
long-aspired for independence from
Britain. Northern Ireland was created in
1921 from an audacious act of
gerrymandering by the British government
when it partitioned the island of
Ireland into an independent southern
state (which became the Republic of
Ireland) and a small northern state
(which became Northern Ireland). The
latter remained under Britain’s
jurisdiction. The arbitrary, imperialist
act of partitioning Ireland was done in
order to give the British authorities in
London a mandate to rule over a portion
of Irish territory because in newly
created Northern Ireland the pro-British
unionists were in a majority over
nationalists. It was British
establishment cynicism par excellence.
The present political structure of the
United Kingdom of England, Wales,
Scotland and Northern Ireland is only a
century old. (Before that, the UK
included all of Irish territory, but
London was forced to grant partial Irish
independence due to an armed
insurrection.)
In
any case, nearly a century after the
setting up of Northern Ireland the
natural demographic changes in its
population have now created a majority
for nationalists. The outcome of the
election on December 12 is an undeniably
huge historic event. For the first time
ever, the nationalist mandate has
overcome the unionist vote. The historic
violation by British gerrymandering
against Irish nationalist rights to
independence and self-determination has
finally been reversed in terms of
electoral ballot.
When the Northern Ireland peace deal
known as the Good Friday Agreement was
signed in 1998 to bring an end to nearly
30 years of armed conflict, enshrined in
that treaty is the “principle of
consent”. The British government is
treaty-bound to abide by the electoral
mandate of a majority in Northern
Ireland wanting a United Ireland.
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The threshold for triggering a
referendum on Northern Ireland leaving
British jurisdiction has now been
reached. And nationalist parties are
openly demanding that the legislative
process to achieve that separation is
now implemented.
Jonathan Powell, a seasoned British
diplomat who oversaw the negotiations of
the Good Friday Agreement, is not one
for hyperbole. But in an interview with
Matt Frei for Britain’s LBC Radio on
December 14, Powell said he expected to
see the “collapse of the United Kingdom”
within the next decade, if not sooner.
He was referring specifically to the
electoral results in Scotland and
Northern Ireland.
Boris Johnson’s seeming victory in the
British election is a double-edged
sword. He may claim to have a mandate to
cut off ties with the European Union.
But the results also mean Scotland and
Northern Ireland are empowered to now
cut off their ties with the rest of
Britain. The separation of those two
states, leaving behind England and
Wales, spells the end of the so-called
United Kingdom.
Johnson’s election success is not
“unleashing great potential” as he
claims. Rather, it is unleashing an
existential constitutional crisis for
the British establishment.
Finian Cunningham
has written extensively on international
affairs, with articles published in
several languages. He is a Master’s
graduate in Agricultural Chemistry and
worked as a scientific editor for the
Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge,
England, before pursuing a career in
newspaper journalism. He is also a
musician and songwriter. For nearly 20
years, he worked as an editor and writer
in major news media organisations,
including The Mirror, Irish Times and
Independent.
