By The Saker

October 12, 2019 "Information Clearing House" -   This will not be an analysis or even a commentary.  Neither am I siding with, or expressing support for, the Turkish military operation in norther Syria.  Finally, I am not discussing the legitimacy (or lack thereof) of the Kurdish Independence movement.  All I propose to do here, is to draw your attention to a series of facts and logical imperatives which, in my opinion debunk and falsify the disinformation campaign aimed at convincing us that Putin and Netanyahu are working hand in glove or, even better, that Putin is a puppet of the Israelis.  So, with that in mind, here we go:

1. Fact1: The creation of some kind of independent Kurdistan has been both an Israeli dream for decades and a crucial element of the Israeli plans to “reconfigure” the region.
2. Fact2: The Turks could *never* execute that attack without Russia’s agreement.  Not only does Russia have some of her top-of-the-line integrated air defenses in northern Syria (the Khmeimin Aerospace Forces base and the Tartus naval base), she also has very powerful EW and SIGNIT capabilities.  The only way for Turkey to try to force their way through that air defense “cupola” would be to attack the Russian forces in Syria which would result in a war with Russia which Turkey has no chance in hell of winning.
3. Fact3: The Russians also have a lot of weight with the Syrian government who also had to agree to let the Turks operate in their skies.  Remember that while the Syrians don’t have air defense systems as sophisticated and powerful as the Russians, they now have a pretty decent and effective integrated air defense system (as shown by how easily it defeated US cruise missile attack).  If the Russians really wanted to do Israel’s bidding, they could have also convinced the Syrian to defend their airspace.  Finally, the Syrians could move forces in an oppose the Turkish invasion.  None of that happened.

Instead, Erdogan gave the Russians (and, via them, the Syrians) assurances that this operation will be limited in scope and nature and that this is not an attack on Syria’s sovereignty.  Since the Syrians ALSO have a problem with the Kurds, what that meant in plain English is “no worries, we will disrupt and suppress the Kurdish attempt to built some kind of Kurdish independent state and then we will limit ourselves to limited, punctual, operations if and when needed.  This is all in your interests too.”  Which is quite true!

Now the Russians are telling the Kurds: “you need to make a deal with Syria, because if you do not, the Turks will smash you“.