Study: U.S. No Longer Dominant Power in the Pacific
America would struggle to win – and may even lose – a war with China, according to an Australian think tank.
By Paul D. Shinkman
August 21, 2019 "Information Clearing House" - The U.S. is no longer the dominant power in the western Pacific and would struggle to win a conflict against China, according to a new study from an Australian institute.
A combination of overly stretched budgets, underprepared forces and outdated thinking among war planners would undercut America's ability to defeat China, particularly as Beijing invests heavily in particular aspects of its military, a study from the University of Sidney's United States Studies Centre states. It speculates the U.S. could lose a war before it starts if, for example, China were to launch a wide-scale, coordinated missile attack against U.S. and allied bases.
"The United States might fail to deter — or could even lose — a limited war with China, with devastating consequences for the region's future strategic landscape," the study's authors write.
Meeting the challenge will require hard choices that leaders in the U.S. may be unwilling or unable to make, they write, particularly if Washington continues to see itself as the global guarantor of "an expansive liberal order."
"In an era of constrained budgets and multiplying geopolitical flashpoints, prioritising great power competition with China means America's armed forces must scale back other global responsibilities."
The study follows fears from within U.S. defense and political circles in recent months that decades of focus on Middle East terrorism threats and outdated fears about Russia have left America wrong-footed in preparing for a potential conflict with China. The study recommends further relying on traditional allies, including Japan and Australia, though those alliances have strained under the Trump administration's skepticism about such part
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