The federally mandated study was
supposed to come out in December but was
released by the Trump administration on
Friday, at a time when many Americans
are on a long holiday weekend,
distracted by family and shopping.
David Easterling, director of the
Technical Support Unit at the NOAA
National Centers for Environmental
Information, emphasized that there was
"no external interference in the
report's development." He added that the
climate change the Earth is experiencing
is unlike any other.
"The global average temperature is
much higher and is rising more rapidly
than anything modern civilization has
experienced, and this warming trend can
only be explained by human activities,"
Easterling said.
Coming from the
US Global Change Research Program, a
team of 13 federal agencies, the
Fourth National Climate Assessment
was put together with the help of 1,000
people, including 300 leading
scientists, roughly half from outside
the government.
It's the second of two volumes.
The first, released in November
2017, concluded that there is "no
convincing alternative explanation"
for the changing climate other than
"human activities, especially
emissions of greenhouse gases."
The report's findings run counter to
President Donald Trump's consistent
message that climate
change is a hoax.
On Wednesday, Trump tweeted, "
Whatever
happened to Global Warming?" as some
Americans faced the coldest Thanksgiving
i
n
over a century.
But the science explained in these and
other federal government reports is
clear: Climate change is not disproved
by the extreme weather of one day or a
week; it's demonstrated by long-term
trends. Humans are living with the
warmest temperatures in
modern history. Even if the
best-case scenario were to happen and
greenhouse gas emissions were to drop to
nothing, the world is on track to warm
1.1 degrees Fahrenheit.
As of now, not a single G20 country
is meeting climate targets,
research shows.
Without significant reductions in
greenhouse emissions, the annual average
global temperature could increase 9
degrees Fahrenheit (5 Celsius) or more
by the end of this century, compared
with preindustrial temperatures, the
report says.
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The expense
The costs of climate change could reach
hundreds of billions of dollars
annually, according to the report. The
Southeast alone will probably lose over
a half a billion labor hours by 2100 due
to extreme heat.
Farmers will face extremely tough times.
The quality and quantity of their crops
will decline across the country due to
higher temperatures, drought and
flooding. In parts of the Midwest, farms
will be able to produce less than 75% of
the corn they produce today, and the
southern part of the region could lose
more than 25% of its soybean yield.
Heat stress could cause average dairy
production to fall between 0.60% and
1.35% over the next 12 years -- having
already cost the industry $1.2 billion
from heat stress in 2010.
When it comes to shellfish there will be
a $230 million loss by the end of the
century due to ocean acidification,
which is already killing off shellfish
and corals.
Red tides,
or algae
bloom that deplete oxygen in the water
and can kill sea life -- like those that
triggered a state of emergency in
Florida in August -- will become more
frequent.
Impacts on our health
Higher temperatures will also kill more
people, the report says. The Midwest
alone,
which is predicted to have the
largest increase in extreme temperature,
will see an additional 2,000 premature
deaths per year by 2090.
There will be more mosquito- and
tickborne diseases like Zika, dengue and
chikungunya.
West Nile cases are expected to more
than double by 2050 due to increasing
temperatures.
Expect asthma and allergies to be worse
due to
climate change.
No one's health is immune from
climate change, the report concludes.
People will be exposed to more foodborne
and waterborne diseases.
Particularly vulnerable to
higher temperatures in the summer,
children, the elderly, the poor and
communities of color will be at a much
greater risk for illness and death.
Heat and flooding
Wildfire seasons -- already longer and
more destructive than before -- could
burn up to six times more forest area
annually by 2050 in parts of the United
States. Burned areas in Southwestern
California alone could double by 2050.
Dependable and safe water for the
Hawaii, the Caribbean and others are
threatened by these rising temperatures.
Along the US coasts, public
infrastructure and $1 trillion in
national wealth held in real estate are
threatened by rising sea levels,
flooding and storm surges.
Energy systems will be taxed, meaning
more blackouts and power failures, and
the potential loss in some sectors could
reach hundreds of billions of dollars
per year by the end of the century, the
report said.
The number of days over 100 degrees
Fahrenheit will multiply; Chicago, where
these days are rare, could start to
resemble Phoenix or Las Vegas, with up
to two months worth of these
scorching-hot days.
Sea levels have already gone up 7 to 8
inches since 1900. Almost half that rise
has been since 1993, a rate of rise
greater than during any century in the
past 2,800 years. Some countries are
already seeing land underwater.
By midcentury, it's likely that the
Arctic will lose all sea ice in late
summer, and that could lead to more
permafrost thaw, according to the
report. As the permafrost thaws, more
carbon dioxide and methane would be
released, amplifying human-induced
warming, "possibly significantly."
What can be done
The report was created to inform
policy-makers and makes no specific
recommendations on how to remedy the
problem. However, it suggests that if
the United States immediately reduced
its fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas
emissions, it could save thousands of
lives and generate billions of dollars
in benefits for the country.
The Defense Department is trying to
understand what risk climate change
poses to security.
But
the
Trump administration has signaled
that the country will pull out of
international initiatives like the Paris
climate accord, aimed at lowering global
temperatures, claiming that these
treaties have been unfair for the US
economy.
A report from the
UN in October urged all governments
to take "rapid, far-reaching and
unprecedented changes in all aspects of
society" to avoid disaster from climate
change. That report predicted that the
Earth will reach the crucial threshold
of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees
Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels
by as early as 2030. It also suggested
the world faces a risk of extreme
drought, wildfires, floods and food
shortages for hundreds of millions of
people.
Time for action
Reactions to the new report have been
strong across the scientific community.
"If we're going to run this country like
a business, it's time to address climate
as the threat multiplier we know it is
before more lives are lost," said Robert
Bullard,
an environmental scientist at Texas
Southern University.
"In Houston, communities of color have
endured back to back major weather
events without the acknowledgment from
Washington that climate change is the
cause. We've known for years that it's
true and it's important to our
organizing and our local policy efforts
that information like this is not only
considered, but believed and acted
upon."
Scientists who have been raising the
alarm about the negative consequences of
climate change for years welcomed the
findings.
"The findings in the Trump
administration's NCA report show how
the health and daily lives of
Americans are becoming more and more
interrupted because of climate
change," said
Beverly Wright, founding
director of the Deep South Center
for Environmental Justice and a
professor at Dillard University. "We
challenge the administration to
finally begin using this information
to rebuild and strengthen the
communities in the direct path of
the atrocities wrought by the fossil
fuel industry and decades of poor
policies that have neglected our
concerns. The science is undeniable,
let's fix it."
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