A Dry Run for Russian Democracy
By Dmitry Orlov
March 20, 2018 "Information
Clearing House" -
Warning: the first part of
this essay may sound like a jubilant hymn to
Russia and a paean to Vladimir Putin. Rest
assured that I am not expressing opinions
here; these are the facts. It just so
happens that these facts accentuate the
positive. But I have no wish to eliminate
the negative, and will get to all of that in
due course.
On March 18 Russia held presidential
elections. Everybody (with a brain) fully
expected Putin to win, but hardly anyone
expected him to win this big, or with this
high a turnout: 67.47% of the eligible
voters turned up at the polls; of them,
76.67%76.69% voted for Putin. In case
you are still wondering whether Crimea is
part of Russia (trust me, it is) the turnout
there was 71.53%, of whom 92% voted for
Putin. And in the once separatist republic
of Chechnya the turnout was 91.54%. Record
turnouts were also observed outside of
Russia, among the very large Russian
diaspora. Over half of all Russians voted
for Putin.
Equally notable was the manner in which the
elections were run: the process was public
and transparent, using paper ballots counted
by hand. Polling places were equipped with
video cameras. Ballot-stuffing, which was a
problem with previous elections, was
detected in a couple of places, and the
tainted results were disqualified. While
during previous elections people could only
vote where they were registered, now they
could declare their location and vote
wherever they found themselves, even at
airports if they happened to be traveling.
While the previous presidential elections in
Russia were followed by a wave of protests,
with numerous people complaining about fraud
at the polls, this time these voices were
scarcely heard. And while in previous
elections opposition candidates got
considerable traction among the
Western-leaning educated elites in Moscow
and St. Petersburg, this time the entire
country was quite uniformly pro-Putin.
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Clearly, the Russians are politically
engaged, and clearly the vast majority of
them trust and like Putin. It is easy to
understand why. During the last decade of
the last century Russia came close to being
destroyed, but its fortunes turned around
dramatically right at the turn of the
century. Most Russians can see that their
country has made a rapid recovery from its
previous setbacks. It is indisputable that
Russia is now a far more stable and
prosperous country, and Putin can and does
take credit for that. Under his watch Russia
has withstood the collapse in oil and gas
prices, fought off terrorist onslaughts,
resisted Western provocations and sanctions,
and has decisively won the arms race against
the United States (and can now cut its
defense spending). Russia has made progress
toward regaining its stature as a major
world power.
Given his wonderful record and the high
level of trust and respect he has earned,
Putin could simply rest on his laurels, but
that’s not what he plans to do. Instead, he
wants to dramatically improve the well-being
of all Russians and to have them achieve
true greatness. So far, he has managed to
fashion Russia into a “normal country”; now
he wants to lead it to outright triumph.
This, I believe, is what is behind the
record turnout and his equally
record-setting landslide victory: for once,
the Russian people are actually inspired and
optimistic about their future. The one
pocket of pessimism I have been able to
detect is in Prime Minister Dmitry
Medvedev’s cabinet. In the televised images
of its post-election meeting the ministers
looked very somber and somewhat crestfallen.
Those who have been complaining about
fifth-columnists within the Kremlin can take
heart: perhaps, after Putin’s reinauguration
in May, he will ask for their resignations.
So far so good. But to what extent was this
election about electoral choice, which is
the essence of democracy? Sure, just the
exercise of everyone showing up and
demonstrating their approval and trust in
their fearless leader is a good way to
legitimize and bolster the leader’s
authority and a great morale-booster. But
aren’t the people supposed to decide
something by voting—something more important
than “I’ve decided to go and vote for
Putin”?
And what does a vote for Putin actually
mean, in terms of choice? Who picked him to
begin with? Well, it turns out that Putin is
a happy accident. Boris Yeltsin named him as
his successor, and you could quite
reasonably joke that Yeltsin was drunk at
the time and didn’t remember why he did
that. But you could also surmise that Putin
was picked for his renowned savvy in
money-laundering and offshoring the
ill-gotten gains of Russian oligarchs (his
previous job back in St. Petersburg) and for
his clever use of his KGB connections (from
his job before that) to “settle questions.”
Remember, this was a time when the endlessly
clever people who get paid to sit around and
drink coffee over at the Pentagon imagined
that “Russian mafia” was an emerging global
threat. The oligarchs must have liked Putin,
and Yeltsin, in keeping with his “leave no
oligarch behind” program, did whatever they
wanted him to do.
What they got instead was a pig in a poke.
The oligarchs thought that they had
recruited another faithful servant who, just
like Yeltsin, would keep the state weak and
facilitate their shameless plunder. Instead
they got a steel-willed technocrat and a
true Russian patriot who quickly manifested
an awesome power to conjure up creative new
ideologies. Instead of subservience, the
oligarchs got his “doctrine of
equidistance,” according to which
money≠power. (An oil baron by the name of
Mikhail Khodorkovsky ran afoul of it,
thinking that he could parlay his wealth
into political power, and ended up cooling
his heels in prison.) Instead of somebody
who would look the other way while they ran
roughshod over Russian society, they got his
“dictatorship of the law,” a significantly
strengthened Russian state, and the once
fearsome Russian mafia melted away like
hoarfrost after sunrise. And the Russian
oligarchy’s plan to seamlessly meld into
Western elite society using their
expropriated wealth, leaving Russia behind
as a withered husk, ran headlong into
Putin’s plan to reestablish “multipolarity”
and to force other nations, even the United
States, to treat Russia as an equal. This
resulted in Western sanctions, which sent
many oligarchs scurrying back to Russia and
repatriating their funds under an amnesty
program, lest they be frozen.
And so Putin, for Russia, is just a happy
accident. Given that happy accidents are in
general far less frequent than unhappy ones,
a question arises: How can Russia reliably
produce another Putin when the time comes?
It is definitely a good thing that Russia
has six years to answer this question,
because this last presidential election, as
well as all the previous ones, has
conclusively demonstrated that Russian
electoral politics are not the answer—at
least not yet. Let’s look at Putin’s
“competition” (in quotes because, judging
from the results, it was more of an
exhibition).
The one who garnered the most votes was
Pavel Grudinin, nominated by the Communists
(although he wasn’t a member) instead of
their perennial presidential candidate and
leader Gennady Zyuganov, who is getting
rather long in the tooth. Grudinin failed to
disclose his foreign bank accounts, or the
fact that his son resides abroad,
disqualifying him from holding the top
secret clearance required of a Russian
president. Nevertheless, he managed to get
15% or so of the vote.
Next in line was the nationalist perennial
presidential candidate Vladimir Zhirinovsky,
who is quite formidable, very entertaining,
but also rather frightening because he is
forever threatening to rain fire and
brimstone on Russia’s enemies both foreign
and domestic. Nevertheless, he is definitely
qualified to serve as president—or to serve
on your firing squad, because he is also a
good shot, and you can be sure that he won’t
accidentally miss all of your vital organs
and leave you writhing in pain while you
bleed out slowly. You can regard him as
Russia’s presidential insurance, giving
Russia’s enemies an excellent reason to wish
for Putin’s good health, because Zhirinovsky
is standing by, ready to make them say
“ouch!” a lot.
And then we have a sort of winner, but not
of the presidential sort: Xenia Sobchak. She
is the daughter of Anatoly Sobchak, who was
the first democratically elected mayor of
St. Petersburg, co-author of Russia’s
constitution, and Putin’s friend and mentor.
She is a fully paid-up member of Russia’s
“golden youth” and pretty much does whatever
she wants—like run for president. Don’t
laugh, she got over 1% of the vote! She has
dabbled in reality television, the fashion
industry, this and that, is married to an
actor, has a year-and-a-half-old son and is
rumored to be pregnant.
She made me laugh because she lost Crimea
even before she got her name on the ballot
by declaring that she does not approve of
Crimea being part of Russia. Recall that
Crimea has been part of Russia since 1783,
was “gifted” to the Ukraine by Nikita
Khrushchev in 1954 in violation of the
Soviet constitution, and then voted to
rejoin Russia in 2014 after the Ukraine’s
government was overthrown in violation of
the Ukrainian constitution: a rare instance
of two constitutional violations canceling
each other out.
Her slogan was “against all”: she saw
herself as a one-person alternative to the
entire Russian political system. Neither she
nor her supporters saw the obvious logical
flaw with this platform: if she were truly
“against all” then, to be consistent, she
would have to campaign for people to vote
against all—including her. What she meant,
of course, was “against all except me.” Now
that would have been a wonderful slogan, had
she managed to explain what it was that made
her so uniquely magic. Instead, she
complained bitterly about everyone else. I
believe that her presidential campaign was
actually a clever merchandising operation.
Maybe it had something to do with marketing
eyeglass frames: she appeared to switch
eyeglasses more often than most women change
panties. There were some other kinds of
“product placement” going on too.
Everybody else got less than 1%, but I will
give them honorable mention anyway. There
was the perennial liberal candidate
Yavlinsky, who gave his rationale for
running again this time (a hopeless cause
given Russians’ overwhelmingly unfavorable
view of liberalism) as “I just really wanted
to talk to some voters.” Then, in no
particular order (because I don’t care) came
the über-capitalist Titov, the über-Soviet
Suraikin and the über-Russian Baburin. Titov
ran on a pathetically hilarious slogan of
“So, what about Titov?”
All of the candidates save Putin (who
intelligently stayed above the fray)
participated in several interminable rounds
of “debates” whose format precluded all
intelligent discussion. All candidates were
given a few minutes to spout their
programmatic gibberish while others tried to
shout them down. At one point they ganged up
on poor Xenia so hard that they made her
cry. The only time they got to talk to Putin
was after the election, when they were all
invited to a sort of “thank you for playing”
meeting at the Kremlin, and where they all
appeared dignified, conciliatory and
grateful.
This was all good, clean fun (except for
making Xenia cry; that was mean) but it
doesn’t answer the essential question, which
is: How can Russia find another Putin to
elect president in six years? One of the
most important reasons why the Soviet Union
failed was the inability of its political
elites to recruit and promote talent,
causing it to degenerate into a dour,
ossified, senile gerontocracy. This fact is
currently very well understood in Russia,
and a serious effort is underway to appoint
young, promising governors and to put young
people with leadership potential into
positions of ministerial responsibility.
Whether these efforts produce the intended
result will become clear six years from now.
A lot can happen in the intervening
years—both good and bad—but at the moment
the project to “make Russia great again”
appears to be firing on all cylinders.
This article was originally published by "Club Orlov" -
The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of Information Clearing House.
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