The
Trump Administration Goes Neocon-crazy
By The
Saker
April
05, 2017 "Information
Clearing House"
- "The
Saker"
-
Oh boy, that did not take long. As I wrote in
February, the
Neocons and the US deep state have completely
neutered Trump.
Just look at these two headlines from RT (and
read the articles):
‘It crossed a lot of lines’:
Trump on alleged chemical gas attack in Syria
‘We are compelled to take own
action’ if UN fails in Syria – US envoy
Frankly, I feel like saying “QED – I rest my
case” and stop writing here. But I won’t – this
is too serious.
First, let’s set the context.
The Syrians gave up their chemical weapons three
years ago
(courtesy of Russia).
The Syrians have also pretty much defeated the
Anglo-Zionist-Wahabi aggression against their
country
(courtesy of Russia, again).
There is a new (kind of) US Administration in
power (some say that this was also courtesy of
Russia) which appeared to have given up on
overthrowing Assad.
And right at this moment in time, in what is
supposed to be a *pure coincidence*.
-
The Syrian forces used chemical weapons
- In
a location filled with children
-
and a lot of folks with cameras
How
stupid do they think we are?
But, of
course, it’s not about us. It’s about Trump.
And he, alas, is proving to be the overcooked
noodle he has been since, well, pretty much day
1 and ever since: flaccid, confused and
spineless. And yeah, he appears be stupid
alright, especially so-called “plan” to defeat
Daesh (more about that below).
And nevermind that
Russian experts have been warning for along time
that the “good terrorists” had chemical
munitions.
Nah! Who cares? besides, these are the same
evil Russkies
who have now been “unmasked” courtesy of a CIA
report about “foreign agents”.
We all
know that Anglo-Zionists are peace loving, shy
and generally kind people. This is why we think
of them as the “Axis of Kindness”. The only way
to really force their hand and make them use
their “best military in the world” is to show
them dead children. Like in Kuwait, in Bosnia,
in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and now Syria.
That, and women raped for political reasons
(Bosnia, Libya – soon in Syria I suppose). Good
thing that the latest atrocity of the “Syrian
regime” came in daylight and involved lots of
horribly dying children!
Now the Americans will get to
destroy the village to save it.
Except
they won’t.
There
have been plenty of articles speculating about
what the “Trump plan” for defeating ISIS/Daesh
will be. I won’t even bother listing them
here. In plain English his plan is, how should
I put it, not very complex:
-
Increase the number of US troops already
present in Syria
-
Offer the Kurds their own autonomous region
in exchange for acting like cannon-fodder
for Uncle Sam
-
Liberate Raqqa as a tangible sign of success
In truth, there is nothing new here. It’s is
just a
re-heated version of the very same plan Obama
had (great
minds think alike, and so do the not so great,
apparently).
Can you
see the problem with this plan?
Let me
help here. Problem #1 – no UNSC Resolution will
back it. Neither will the Syrian government.
But who cares, right? We already know that
Nikki Haley thinks about that: once again the US
will arrogantly violate international law under
the pretext of “being compelled to take
action”. Welcome back to Bosnia and Croatia!
It’s 1994 again! We now live in the era of the
“RTP – responsibility to protect”.
International Law, RIP. But that is only a
‘minor’ problem. The real problem is simple:
Besides
the Syrians themselves, the Russians, the
Iranians and the Turks are categorically against
such a plan. And these four countries just
happen to represent the overwhelming military
force in Syria, and all of them *already* have
boots on the ground (and air defense systems).
For Turkey especially, such a plan is a
casus belli, they have said so many times.
I am no big fan of Turkey or Erdogan (although I
do like the Turkish people themselves), but I
have to admit that should Trump go ahead with
this goofy plan he will live no other choice
then to chose between war or civil war. Mostly
likely a combo of both.
Then there are the Kurds. Actually, in many
ways I feel sorry for them and I admire them.
But they have to realize the enormous dangers of
accepting the US plan. First, that means that
they will be the frontline cannon-fodder against
Daesh which happens to be one of the best
trained and experienced infantry force in the
region. But worse, do the Kurds really commit
the same historical mistake as the Albanian of
Kosovo who have 100% linked their future with
Camp Bondsteel
and who will be instantly re-invaded by the
Serbia as soon as NATO or the US leave (which
they will, sooner or later, inevitably).
There
is a reason why the US always supports
minorities everywhere: because by accepting and
relying on that support these minorities always
become completely dependent upon the USA. That,
in turn, means that the US can then use these
minorities in any way they want “or else”. And,
since sooner or later the Americans leaves, the
“or else” inevitably and always happen.
I
submit that it would be the height of folly for
the Kurds to commit the same mistake. Yes,
sure, they want their autonomy and/or their own
country. But they have to realize that the
only
viable
way to achieve either objective is by
negotiations
with
their neighbors, not some ignorant US
official who will forget about them as soon as
he is done promising them the moon. I would
remind the Kurd of a time-honored US tradition
here: as soon as things get ugly, the Americans
“declare victory and leave”.
That
also means that the Kurds might have to settle
for less than what they want. Politics is the
art of the possible. But if the choice is some
viable limited autonomy vs full independence
followed by an inevitable war against Turkey,
Iran, Iraq and Syria then I think that the
former is the best possible outcome. But even
if we assume that the Kurds decide to try the
“Kosovar option”.
Iran is
the number one military power on the ground.
And Hezbollah. The Syrians are struggling, I
will admit to that. But they are holding and
making incremental efforts, some of their best
units are actually pretty good. As for the
skies over Syria – they are Russian.
So far,
the Americans have not re-heated the “no fly
zone” concept, but they might as well, since
their entire plan is idiotic to the extreme.
Besides, I simply cannot imagine US generals
agreeing to deploy their forces in Syria without
air cover (in case you did not know, the US
solider cannot fight without air cover. He just
won’t. It’s “air cover for me or I don’t
fight”). However, air cover for the US forces
in Syria imply either a tacit agreement with the
Russians and the Syrians, something like what
the Israelis apparently have, or an immense risk
for the USAF and USN aircraft. So we are back
to negotiating with the Russians and via the
Russians, with the Syrians.
In
fact, I bet you that this is what the Americans
are doing right now. Quietly negotiating with
the Russians. Problem: the Neocons hate Russia
and everything Russian. And they loathe Putin.
So how does the State Department or the White
House negotiate with the Russians while, at the
very same time, Congress, the US media and the
CIA are all engaging into a hysterical and
paranoid hate-campaign against Russia?
So here
is Trump’s conundrum: he desperately needs the
real enemies of Daesh – Russia, Iran and Syria –
to agree to his plan but at the same time, he is
too much of a whip to tackle the hate campaign
against, well, Russia, Iran and Syria inside the
United States.
The
Neocons, apparently backed by the CIA and the
Pentagon, want to go at it solo: just shoot up
all of Syria “OK Corral” style and they seem to
be convinced that they can somehow scare the
Russians, the Iranians and the Syrian into
submission. If so, then they are both stupid
and ignorant. Or, there is even a worse
possibility: the Neocons *know* that this plan
will end up in disaster, but they want Trump to
go to war anyway because that will destroy his
presidency. That is almost elegant, in a
perverted way.
What is
sure is that you will never see a Neocon in
frontline combat. Neither they nor their kids
will die no matter what they do. Or so they
think. This is one of the main reasons why
these Neocons are the single biggest danger for
the United States and the American people: they
despise the real American people and they won’t
hesitate to sacrifice them, in large numbers if
needed (9/11 anybody?).
This is
why so many Americans voted for Trump and his
promise “to drain the swamp”.
Alas,
the swamp drained Trump and all is back to
“normal”.
So what
happens next? My fervent hope: nothing.
Absolutely nothing. As long as the Americans
are all talk and as long as they don’t actually
do anything, there could be real progress in
Syria (Daesh is
already
loosing the war!). I hope that the Kurds will,
you know, “kinda, sort of, give it a try” and
then stop before things go critical. Should the
Kurds really decide to fight for Uncle Sam, I
hope that they will keep in mind that the US
will dump them as soon as Raqqa is liberated
simply because really creating some kind of
autonomy for the Kurds against the will of
Syria, Iran and, most importantly, Turkey could
result in Erdogan really slamming the door on
NATO and Turkey leaving the alliance. Should
that happen the only option left for Turkey
would be some kind of understanding, and maybe
even alliance, with Russia and Iran. The
various domino effect scenarios are almost
infinite and nothing is really impossible.
Right
now the Americans are still sort of busy
liberating Mosul. I suppose if they stay at it
long enough they will eventually succeed, at
least for a while. I don’t see them really
controlling the city for very long. They might
build a US ‘consular fortress’ like in Bagdad or
Kabul, but that will not mean that they control
the city. If they intend to liberate Raqqa as
long as they took to liberate Mosul then this
can continue for a long, long while.
There
is a scarier possibility: the US begins its
operation in Syria, runs into problems, and then
begins the endless cycle of escalations and
doubling-down. Sooner or later, that means
clashing with the Russians and that could turn
ugly very fast. A direct clash with Iran with
equally unpredictable consequences. If that
happens, a lot of Americans will die.
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Assuming that there still is somebody rational
and sane left in the Trump administration with
enough influence, then all this madness can
still be stopped. There is also the very real
possibility that the current fight inside the US
elites will drain so much energy that nobody
will really have to time and energy to engage in
very risky foreign military operations. And if
all else fails, maybe somebody will suggest to
Trump that a unilateral military intervention in
Syria is pure folly and will cost him his
presidency. Maybe this is an argument which he
will understand.
2018
will be a very tough year. I don’t think that
there is any hope left for a real change in US
policies and I am afraid that we are going to
have to learn how to live with some kind of
Obama 2.0 or some other form of “neo-neoconism”.
It felt
really good to hope for a while. Now we have to
accept that our hopes never materialized and
resume the struggle.
The
Saker
PS: I just learned that, just as I had
predicted, Bannon has been removed from the US
National Security Council. See for yourself:
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-05/bannon-removed-from-national-security-council-role-in-shakeup.
Now the coup against Trump is fully completed.
And Bloomberg celebrates “Intelligence director,
Joint Chiefs chairman elevated”. Yeah, no
kidding! It’s over folks, the Neocons have
totally crushed Trump. And he did not even given
them a halfway decent fight…
Commentary Mag is already celebrating:
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/step-toward-rational-national-security-council/
like it’s Purim all over again.
The
views expressed in this article are solely those
of the author and do not necessarily reflect the
opinions of Information Clearing House.
