No
One Needs Another Korean War
By
Eric Margolis
March 19, 2017 "Information
Clearing House"
- Panmunjom, the ‘peace village’ on the
incredibly tense demilitarized zone (aka
DMZ) between North and South Korea, is
one of the weirdest places I’ve ever
visited. Tough North Korean soldiers
lurk about, watched by equally tough
South Korean troops in one-way
sunglasses and an aggressive judo
‘warrior’ stance.
When I was filming at Panmunjom, we were
warned to beware of North Koreans who
could at any moment rush into the main
conference room and drag us into North
Korea.
It
was into this crazy house that the new,
jet-lagged US Secretary of State Rex
Tillerson was transported from turbulent
Washington. After a quick look at the
DMZ, Tillerson announced `no more Mr.
Nice Guy.’ The US had run out of
`strategic patience’ with North Korea
and will go to war to end North Korea’s
‘threat’ to the US, he warned.
Tillerson, formerly CEO of EXXON, is
well-versed in world affairs but the
Korean peninsula’s complexities could be
too much for him to quickly absorb.
Immediately
threatening war is no way to begin a
diplomatic mission. But Tillerson was
obviously reading from a script written
by his boss, Donald Trump, whose
knowledge of North Asian affairs makes
Tillerson look like a Confucian scholar.
Welcome to Trump’s credo: tweet loudly
and walk with a big stick.
What would war between the US and North
Korea mean? A very grim scenario if it
occurs.
The US has nearly 80,000 military
personnel in South Korea and Japan, as
well as more war-fighting units in Guam,
which the US conquered from Spain in
1898. The US 7th Fleet patrols the
region, armed with tactical nuclear
weapons. US nukes are also based in
South Korea and Guam. As we recently
saw, US heavy B-1 and B-52 bombers can
fly from North America to Korea.
South Korea has a formidable,
600,000-man army equipped with state of
the art weapons. I’ve been up on the DMZ
with the 2nd ROK division. As an old
soldier, I was very impressed by their
skill and warlike spirit.
North Korea’s one million-man armed
force is large, but obsolescent. Its
great strength in heavy artillery partly
compensates for its totally obsolete,
1960’s vintage air force. Key combat
elements of the DPRK army are dug deep
into the rocky hills just north of the
DMZ, with thousands of heavy North
Korean guns facing south. In the event
of war, the North claims it will destroy
South Korea’s capitol, Seoul, that is
only 30km away and has 20 million
residents.
US
estimates of war in Korea, made a decade
ago, suggest America would incur 250,000
casualties in a war that would cost one
million Korean deaths. That’s why the US
has shied away from direct attack on
North Korea. Unlike Iraqis, Syrians,
Libyans and Somalis, North Koreans know
how to fight back and are amply armed
for a defensive war.
The US would certainly be tempted to use
tactical nuclear weapons against North
Korean troops and guns deeply dug into
the mountainous terrain. Without them,
air power, America’s usual trump card,
would lose much of its destructive
potential. No doubt, all North Korea
would be ravaged by US air power, as it
was during the 1950’s Korean War. South
Korea plans massive air, missile and
commando attacks on North Korean
military HQ and against leader Kim Jung-un’s
hideaway.
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US
war plans call for amphibious landings
along North Korea’s long, vulnerable
coastline. This threat forces the North
to deploy large numbers of regular army
and militia troops on both coasts.
North Korea’s air force and little navy
would be vaporized on the first day of
hostilities. But it is likely that the
DPRK would be able to fire a score or
more of medium-ranged missiles at Japan.
If the war goes nuclear, Japan looks
almost certain to suffer nuclear attack,
along with Guam. Tokyo and Osaka are
prime targets.
North Korean forces might be able to
push south to Seoul, but likely no
further in the face of fierce attacks by
US and South Korean air power operating
from bases further south. The North’s
powerful commando force of some 100,000
troops would attack key South Korean
targets, including its vital air bases
shared with the US. Such raids would be
highly disruptive but not decisive
unless the DPRK used chemical and/or
biological weapons to shut down South
Korea’s air bases and its ports at Busan
and Inchon.
The US and South Korea could certainly
win such a war but it would be very
bloody and expensive. There would be the
threat of Chinese military intervention
if it appeared the US was about to
occupy North Korea. Russia is right next
door.
Secretary Tillerson, please leave war
threats to the generals and start
practicing some active diplomacy with
the North. If ever a war was not needed,
it’s here.
Eric S. Margolis is an award-winning,
internationally syndicated columnist.
His articles have appeared in the New
York Times, the International Herald
Tribune the Los Angeles Times, Times of
London, the Gulf Times, the Khaleej
Times, Nation – Pakistan, Hurriyet, –
Turkey, Sun Times Malaysia and other
news sites in Asia.
https://ericmargolis.com
Copyright Eric Margolis 2017
