Syria - Turks Fail To Take
Al-Bab - "Rebels" Die In Infighting
By
Moon Of Alabama
February 19, 2017 "Information
Clearing House"
- "
Moon Of
Alabama"
- This week the
Turkish President Erdogan visited the Gulf
states. He asked for bigger investment in Turkey
and for cash for his project to occupy more
parts of Syria. A week ago Erodgan had
claimed:
“Al-Bab is about to be captured. Manbij and
Raqqah are next,” Erdogan said, adding their
number one priority was to form a safe zone
in the country.
This week he brought his Army Chief of Staff
Arak to the Gulf to declare victory. Several
Erdogan friendly
media outlets
in Turkey (any other left?)
reported:
Operation Euphrates Shield has entered a new
phase in al-Bab, as the offensive stage is
over now that the town has largely been
recaptured from Daesh.
“The operation in al-Bab is
over," Chief of General Staff Hulusi Akar
said at a press conference in Qatar
on Wednesday during President Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan's trip to Gulf countries.
...
Silence now dominates the area that was once
scene to heavy clashes. Turkish tanks patrol
al-Bab's streets and the Syrian opposition
has pressed a major advance.
That claim was a huge lie. While Turkish forces
had earlier taken some outskirts of Al-Bab and
claimed to own 40% of the city they were by then
stuck and later
in full retreat.
Yesterday the Turkish forces lost the Al-Hikma
hospital and the automatic bakery they had
earlier captured and retreated from all inner
districts of Al-Bab. At least
90% of Al-Bab
is still in Islamic State hands.
Geolocated video by the Islamic State and
Turkish supported forces show that the Turks are
back at their starting points at the outer city
limits.
As many as 430 Syrian civilians have been killed
by Turkish forces and their auxiliaries. Just
last week the MI-6 sponsored Syrian Observatory
said that Turkish bombing
killed
more than 60 in Al-Bab. It confirmed videos
posted by the Islamic State which showed killed
children and destroyed houses. Unlike with every
death cause by fighting between Takfiris and the
Syrian Army no "western" main-stream media
picked up on that.
Turkey
started to invade Syria between Aleppo and
Euphrates exactly six month ago. The aim was to
prevent the Syrian Kurds from taking an
east-to-west corridor along the Turkish border.
Such would have closed off Turkey from further
influence in Syria. The Turks had hired some of
the Syrian "rebels" they had earlier supported
to fight the Syrian government to now fight the
Islamic State and the Kurds. The Takfiris of
Ahrar al-Sham are their storm troopers.
The
first three month showed some rapid progress.
The Islamic State was bribed to move out of the
northern Syrian areas without a fight and the
Turks moved in. But in December they reached
Al-Bab, a city east of Aleppo with originally
some 60,000 inhabitants. There resistance from
the Islamic State picked up and the Turkish
progress stopped. Turkish armor, often placed
without cover in sight of the front line, was
destroyed in mass by Islamic State anti-tank
missiles. Casualties climbed and the mercenaries
of the FSA refused to continue the fight.
As of
Thursday casualties number so far were at least
64 Turkish soldiers killed and 386 wounded. Of
the FSA auxiliaries at least 469 were killed and
1,712 wounded. A dozen main battle tanks were
confirmed as lost. Unofficial sources claim that
more than 30 Turkish tanks were destroyed as
well as 20+ armored infantry carriers - nearly
two battalions wasted for no significant gain.
The Free Syrian Army mercenaries Erdogan hired
to take on the Kurds and the Islamic State are
now mostly useless. They do not fight
efficiently but profusely waste ammunition for
spray-and-pray show offs
(vid).
To compensate for that Turkey injected its own
special Forces and now has some 3,000 soldiers
involved in the operation. But that did not help
either - losses continued and no progress was
made. Another 5,000 Turkish soldiers were
now send (Tur)
to join the operation. It was also announced
that Turkey plans to erect three garrisons in
Syria. On top of the eluding Al-Bab Erdogan now
also wants to take the Islamic State held Raqqa
and the Kurdish held Manbij.
His
plan of a Raqqa
operation is ludicrous. It would require to
fight for and hold a corridor through
Kurdish-Syrian areas:
Ankara's preferred plan of action envisages
Turkish and U.S. special forces, backed by
commandoes and Turkey-backed Syrian rebels
entering Syria through the border town of
Tel Abyad, currently held by Kurdish YPG
militia, the newspaper said.
The
forces would effectively cut through YPG
territory, before pushing on to Raqqa, which
lies about 100 kilometers (60 miles) south.
Such a plan would require the United States
to convince the Kurdish militia to grant the
Turkey-backed forces a 20-kilometre
(12-mile)-wide strip through YPG territory
in order to push south, ..
The
U.S. would not (and could not) hold back Kurdish
forces from attacking such a long Turkish supply
line.
But
who takes such announcements serious
anyway? After the alleged coup against him
Erdogan kicked out every officer who was not, in
his view, sufficiently loyal to him. His
air-force was hurt the most. Allegedly only 0.4
qualified pilots per plane are available now
instead of the regular 2-3. It takes up to a
decade to train new pilots.
The ground army may be in slightly better shape
but NATO's second biggest military is no longer
the serious force it once was. The whole Turkish
operation
is in disarray.
Moreover - there is no plan for the day after or
any exit strategy. Decisions and announcements
change from day to day.
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The current Turkish plans contradict the Astana
agreements concluded with Russia, Syria and
Iran. Only
a short, temporary role
for Turkish forces was agreed upon. Al-Bab was
supposed to be taken by Syrian forces. Syria has
officially protested at the UN against the
Turkish invasion. But neither Syria nor Russia
or Iran have started to fight the Turkish
forces. "Just let the Turks bleed," seems to be
their current slogan.
Erdogan
set the date for a referendum in Turkey over a
new constitution. The vote in April would
legalize his quasi dictatorial powers. But the
quagmire in Syria and the stalemate at Al-Bab
will cost him. Why choose a dictator prone to
lose his fights? Unconfirmed rumors are
swiveling around claiming that Erdogan is trying
to bribe the Islamic State to leave Al-Bab. Such
a move would fit Erdogan's motives. He needs the
victory and does not shy away from otherwise
illegitimate methods.
South of Al-Bab the Syrian army is moving
towards the Euphrates. It will cut off the
Turkish forces path to Raqqa and Manbij. In
north-east Syria formerly Turkish sponsored
Takfiris fight each other. Jund al-Aqsa, allied
with Islamic State, is
mass killing
"moderate rebels" allied with Al-Qaeda. Hundreds
of "rebel" fighters and prisoners have lost
their lives in such infighting.
In the south "moderate rebels" and al-Qaeda try
to attack the city of Daraa, held by regular
Syrian forces. The attacks failed. Jordan closed
its borders and no longer takes care of wounded
"rebels". The Military Operations Room in Jordan
has
stopped all
supplies and payments to anti-Syrian forces.
Only Israel is still secretly helping them.
Syrian
government forces mop up isolated rebel
strongholds near Damascus. Some Syrian army
forces are moving to retake Palmyra. The
east-Syrian garrison in Deir Ezzor, isolated and
attacked by the Islamic State, is still holding
out. Bigger operations against the Takfiris in
the south and north-west are planned but the
smart move now is to just sit tight and let the
enemies, Takfiris as well as Turks, continue in
their self destruction.
The views expressed in this article are solely
those of the author and do not necessarily
reflect the opinions of Information Clearing
House.
